Accountability
A Bridge Called Confidence
With the death of Gen Ziaul Haq in August 1988, a decade plus of dictatorial rule came to an end. Before his death, the late President had dismissed the man handpicked by him to guide his version of partyless democracy, the “crime” of late Mr. Junejo had been to display signs of independence as Prime Minister. Gen Zia’s fears had been fed by the Establishment that had decided that Junejo was about to cross the fail-safe line of total control and needed to be cut to size. The enquiry into the Ojhri Camp disaster acted as the proverbial straw. Prominent advisors to Gen Zia were the Establishment figures Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Dr Mahbubul Haq, Roedad Khan, Ijlal Haider Zaidi, Mahmoud Haroon, etc. When the then VCOAS, Gen Aslam Beg, decided against the usual route to the Presidency and opted that the country go for the constitutional process, this was God-sent as it suited the Establishment and their chief, GIK, became President. With Ms Benazir Bhutto’s PPP running rampant politically, the IJI, the Islamic Democratic Front, was cobbled together around the ever available Pakistan Muslim League. PML leader Junejo, discarded unceremoniously only a few months ago, was now again resurrected as the pointman against a bigger threat. Ms Bhutto’s electoral momentum took her to Federal power but fell short of gaining the key Province of the Punjab. As a part of the package that elevated her to PM, Ms Bhutto was forced to abandon Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan as her Presidential candidate and swallow the GIK pill as the Establishment-dictated “consensus” candidate of both the major political groupings. As much as everyone would have us believe that this was “democracy”, the fact remained that it was an Establishment-contrived farce.
Ms Bhutto’s political demise was inherent from the first day of her first Prime Ministerial stint. Given that the PPP had been out of office for a long time, the Establishment policy was to allow enough rope to PPP to run berserk with respect to nepotism and corruption. Oxford and Harvard educated Ms Benazir was simply overwhelmed by the demands and trappings of third world office, exposing her severe limitations with respect to experience. Ms Benazir was also badly served by her close advisors, these stalwarts decided they were omnipotent and started to pick on the Armed Forces. By August 1990 the Establishment had the necessary strength (power flows through the barrel of a gun) to move against her.
The Last Hurrah
Someone should mark 4 Nov 93 as a red letter day in the country’s democratic history. Ms Benazir, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, stood her ground on two points of relentless pressure, viz. (1) from her mother with respect to the arrest of her brother, Murtaza Bhutto, as soon as he stepped on Pakistan soil and (2) the return of GIK to demand support for the Presidential elections on the basis of what he thought to be an encashable IOU. One can be crass and say that she took the cue from Mian Nawaz Sharif who, in his maiden speech as Leader of the Opposition, encouraged her not to succumb to blackmail by smaller parties, independents and what have you (comprising the Establishment) but one should not take credit away from where credit is due, after all it is she who is in the PM’s hot seat with something to lose. For the record, it is the second time this year, a PM of Pakistan has stood his/her ground, “even to the peril of his/her throne”, that is an auspicious occasion for democracy in Pakistan against any scale.
Murtaza Bhutto kept the people of Pakistan guessing about his arrival the whole of Wednesday 3 Nov. Since he is charged with heinous crimes not only against the State but against a virtual plethora of individual Pakistanis who have died (and have been wounded and maimed) due to assassinations, bombs and other violent means at the hands of a terrorist organisation known as Al-Zulfikar, his entry into Pakistan should interest a lot of people, politics or otherwise. After all, he has been indicted many times by the print media (on the basis of confirmed intelligence reports) that he, having been aggrieved at the demise of his late father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, had engaged in what he terms as “a genuine movement to overturn dictatorship” but that happens to be behaviour what the State calls anti-State. So we have a contradiction whether the individual is right and all that the intelligence agencies have been claiming is wrong or the individual is what he is labelled to be. However, the bigger paradox arises if the pro-Indian RAW label does not stick to Murtaza, in that case a whole generation of our intelligence hierarchy have been lying through their teeth. On the contrary, if they feel that they have been speaking the truth, then it will become a test of character of various individuals, whether they have the in-built strength and courage to stand for the truth in the face of losing their careers, Murtaza being the brother of the PM. At least, Murtaza has a redeeming feature, knowing that he faced certain arrest and maybe long incarceration, he has had the guts to stand up for his convictions. Not many people have that special courage to face what could turn out to be a fight for his life.
The Presidential Candidate
The process of electing a President by means of an electoral college has been shown up to be an absolutely ridiculous exercise that demeans the concept of democracy. Ten days before the actual election we do not even know the actual choice of the two major political parties, various permutations and combinations are being considered.
Of the serious candidates, only one, Ghulam Ishaq Khan, continues to remain extremely controversial. The PPP “jirga” that met him on Monday night at Anwar Saifullah’s house failed to convince him not to do a “PIF” on PPP. One does not see the PPP seriously considering his candidacy in the face of its own experience at GIK hands. However, politics brings together stranger bedfellows. PPP’s support for a GIK candidacy will be taken as a clear signal for confrontation with PML(N). Perhaps Akbar Khan Bugti from Balochistan excites somewhat similar emotions but in a much lesser degree for much different reasons, primarily that he has the potential of being an unguided missile. Even then he remains in the class of mostly honourable men who are inclined to become the President of Pakistan.
Political Detente
The simple arithmetic of the elections of the NA Speaker Tanvir Gilani (106 votes over 90 for Gohar Ayub Khan) means that Ms Bhutto will be elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan in the National Assembly today. While the PPP and its allies did get a slender majority in the October 6 NA elections, the support of independents, minority seats and others gives the PPP a comfortable working lead in Parliamentary terms over the PML(N). By the same yardstick PML(N)/ANP are expected to make a stable government in NWFP while squeaking past the post in Punjab where strongman Mian Shahbaz Sharif is the best PML(N) choice for CM in the circumstances. As the Nawaz pointman in earlier negotiations with Ms Benazir he does have a working relationship with her. Balochistan has its own peculiar political culture and it is expected that JWP will take the lead in making an ambivalent Government supported by either the PML(N) or PPP or even both. In Sindh, the PPP is poised to make a strong government but without the support of urban-based MQM it may not be stable as respects the law and order environment. The scenario outlined because of the elections has caused analysts and observers to refer to it as a “split mandate”, as a matter of fact that message by the electorate is the best thing to happen to Pakistan for a long, long time.
In 1988, the PPP made a strong Federal Government while the IJI made a comparable government in the Punjab. Their strength in their respective bastions meant that dialogue was shown the door in preference to acrimonious confrontation. Both the major political groupings proceeded to run riot with regard to malfeasance in the absence of the accountability factor that a strong in-House Opposition represents. In contrast, for the first time in the democratic history of the country no political grouping, except possibly in Sindh, has the absolute authority to ride roughshod over the other. In Sindh, the MQM’s overwhelming urban-based majority imposes its own inherent check and balance on PPP, Ms Benazir will rise in the esteem of the electorate if despite her absolute majority she displays political pragmatism by accommodating the MQM in the governance of Sindh. In the ultimate analysis, the common citizen will emerge as the greatest beneficiary as both the major political parties keep on vying for his/her attention rather than consign them to the dung-heap of benign neglect till the election process starts all over again. By voting for both political forces in substantial numbers, around 39-40% with a slight edge of over 750,000 votes for PML(N), the voters have sent a strong signal that instead of confrontation, political detente is the order of the day. By giving the balance 20% of the vote count to a virtual plethora of others (the swing vote in almost every Assembly), the voters have ensured that the substantial not-so-silent minority will be given pride of place in the attention of both the major political groupings. It is important to ensure that the minority vote does not become the voice of political blackmail, an acid test of the strength of character of our majority leaders in each Assembly.
Thinking Positive
Almost all political pundits within and outside the country had predicted a major victory for the PPP over the PML(N) in the National Assembly elections followed by a complete rout in the Provincial Assemblies round a few days later. As a part of overall PPP strategy the first round knockout of Nawaz Sharif was necessary as they were apprehensive of a repeat performance circa 1988 when the Punjab remained a thorn for the PPP Federal Government. However, contrary to the soothsayer’s hopes (rather than any calculated analysis) the PML(N) made a surprisingly strong showing in the general elections, emerging with a slight edge in voting percentage over the PPP nationally but losing out in the commensurate overall tally of seats. All the fears of a “hung” Parliament seem to have come true.
For the first time since the inception of Pakistan in 1947, PML has fought an election as an independent political entity and not as the contrived creation and/or appendage of the Establishment. Nawaz Sharif has provided the PPP its first real democratic Opposition in 25 years. By any reckoning, this has been a phenomenal performance given Ms Benazir’s undeniable charisma, the PPP’s well organised campaign machine and a strong grassroots support among the electorate. On the other hand, the bifurcation of the PML into various factions pre-elections meant that the PML(N) started bereft of a campaign machine, an almost non-existent party organisation that was cobbled together by a bunch of amateur but dedicated Nawaz-loyalists combining with a smattering of experienced professionals. Creating order out of chaos, they were able to translate their enthusiasm into political potency. However, there were glaring shortcomings e.g. the initial euphoria on October 6 night when the sweep of the urban areas convinced the PML(N) that they were well on the way to an overwhelming majority but were later embarrassed by the rural returns and that of the Seraiki belt. On the other hand (the much vilified) Hussain Haqqani of the PPP PR and media team gave a professional performance by disseminating accurate figures on both nights and did his credibility a world of good. For PPP this was the second time they went to the polls with home ground advantage (the first being the 1977 polls) because despite the cosmetics being aired about transparency and fairplay, the Caretaker Administration seemed to be supportive of a PPP victory. However, to the lasting credit of the Army and the civil administration, except for an odd exception or two at higher levels, they generally and genuinely remained neutral. For the Army this has been their finest hour, they maintained a “hands off” policy that contributed to the psyche of free and fair elections, they also managed to maintain commendable peace and harmony throughout the country. While the COAS must take credit as the head of the institution, congratulations are in order all around down the pecking list. One must commend the excellent role played by ISPR in keeping the Army’s public image free from controversy, this time they have functioned with maturity as per their mandate.
PPP Wins Battle, May Lose the War
In the National Assembly elections of Oct 6, 1993 the PPP with 86 seats got an edge of 14 seats over PML(N) with 72 seats. The failure to get a decisive knockout in the first round is catastrophic for the PPP given the percentage of votes Nawaz Sharif has managed to gain. For the first time in Pakistan’s history, after the Quaid had led the Muslim League in election victories pre-1947, the Old Party has made a decisive impact in Pakistan’s political life as a genuine political entity. Emerging from the clutches of the Establishment and machinations thereof, the Muslim League has broken the myth of invincibility that the PPP had inculcated over the years. It is most important to note that the PPP’s vote bank has remained secure at around 38-39% nationally with strong roots in all four Provinces.
Muslim League national vote percentage-wise was 40% with majority votes over PPP in Punjab (5%) and Sarhad (4%). It is now time to remove the (N) suffix from PML and acclaim Nawaz Sharif as the rightful heir of the Muslim League heritage. The Muslim Leaguers who were with Chattha should seriously think of either merging with the PPP or returning to the mainline ML fold. The lack of a clear majority for PPP can only translate at best into a weak Federal Government with the possibility of only one Provincial Government under its direct authority. Given the sorry history of Federal interference in Provincial affairs this could be the prescription that would be most advisable for Pakistan’s integrity and sovereignty. In any case the first crack at making the Federal Government rightfully belongs to PPP in the supreme interest of democracy in Pakistan, one hopes that this will come about.
The MQM Boycott
The announcement by the MQM(A) that they will boycott the forthcoming elections has come as a great shock to the people of urban Sindh in particular and to the masses of Pakistan in general. The party is representative of Karachi and Hyderabad in the real sense and their absence from the electoral hustings would deprive these cities of a genuine voice in the National and Provincial Assemblies.
On the evening of September 28, it seemed that matters had been settled amicably at the highest level between the Army and the MQM hierarchy. Barely 48 hours later, the whole agreement was in shambles, what had gone wrong during this short interim period? From all accounts it seems that a small incident has been blown out of proportion subordinating the public interest to personal egos. Stating of the incident that seems to have triggered off the fresh squabble is not important, but it has brought back into focus all the suspicions in a rush and fostered misunderstanding between a primary national institution and a small but potent political force with a legitimate role to play on the national scene.
D Minus 8 and Counting
Going into the final stretch, one is struck by the fact that while positive factors of the two major political groupings may be important for their success, the negative factors would be much more lethal for their failure. This is politics upside down instead of right side up but this is Pakistan 1993, that’s the way it is and that’s the way it’s going to be.
Ms Benazir remains a great crowd-puller and if the election gauges were to be calibrated on the volume of the crowds and the number of party flags, the PPP would be a sure thing at Ladbroke’s. However, the only thing that keeps betting shops like Ladbroke’s profitable is that people lose more often than winning. On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif’s performance has been extraordinary for a person whose previous record was largely believed to be propped up by Establishment support. Not only is he matching Ms Benazir crowd for crowd but he is the first non-Sindhi leader who has drawn a segment of support within Sindh during his repeated forays into the interior to deny PPP a complete sweep in the Province.
Sacred Cows and the Vision
Determined to restore the vision envisaged by the Quaid in the concept of Pakistan, Moeen Qureshi has called into question the quality of our leadership over the past four decades. He has taken steps to bring those who aspire to be the rulers of Pakistan within the ambit of the rule of Law. Civilized society expects its leaders to be subservient to the rules and regulations they are pledged to uphold, not to be above the law they enforce for others. In Pakistan today, the laws of the land are meant to govern only those who are without money and/or influence.
Some of the names of the privileged elite has been published in the loan defaulters list and some will definitely be “mentioned in dispatches” in the utilities and tax default score sheet that we have been given to believe is to follow. While many are bracing themselves in anticipation of disclosure, in a perverse way it is a sort of a status symbol that denotes the person’s ability to not only take more out of the hopelessly over-burdened socio-economic infrastructure but also refuse to pay for the services acquired. In a manner of speaking, those who have not made it on one list or the other have failed to benefit from the “open season” on the national assets and can be classified as the great silent (and stupid) majority, serving only as extras in the grand act of the national drama.
The Men Who Would be President
The General Elections has evoked such focus of attention that the Presidential elections, most important of all in the context of the practical experience of politics in Pakistan over the years, has been virtually sidelined. The period between the end of the General Elections and the Presidential elections being less than a fortnight, the parties must at least indicate their possible choices, their actual preference could be announced till after the Elections. The present conspiracy of silence will give room for backroom manipulations. The Constitutional requirements about fulfillment of qualifications by the Presidential aspirants should be so transparent that not an iota of doubt or controversy should exist. Though his bureaucratic shortcomings were well known, Ghulam Ishaq Khan (GIK) made a fine start as President, succumbing later to his baser instincts and destroying the respect he had earned in the ushering in of democracy. GIK brought the country to the brink of political and economic apocalypse by manipulations that froze all government activity. Such tendencies for malfeasance and subterfuge must be examined thoroughly in the individual Presidential aspirant.
As the point man in the struggle against late Gen Zia’s Martial Law, Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan was the obvious preference of Ms Bhutto and her allies but he was ditched by her in December 1988 in fulfillment of the package deal (made in Washington, not in Heaven) she had to accept to come to power. Often derided for his lack of a popular base of support, the Nawabzada has been a necessary cog for the Opposition for the last three decades in combining against a ruler, dictatorial or democratic. As a COP leader, he saw the end of President Ayub Khan, as a PNA leader the last of Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and as a PDA leader, first the dismissal and later the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Respected among the politicians’ community, the Nawabzada nevertheless does not command that much admiration within military or bureaucratic circles as a potential President should. A possible candidate of the rapidly unravelling PDA, PPP’s political pragmatism may mean he is already deemed expendable. There are rumours that former CM Mir Afzal Khan, much more of a wily fox than GIK, may have opted out of taking part in the elections to the Assemblies on “health grounds” to remain a viable PPP candidate for President. His tendency to switch sides and principles on an “as required basis” are well known.