The Men Who Would be President
The General Elections has evoked such focus of attention that the Presidential elections, most important of all in the context of the practical experience of politics in Pakistan over the years, has been virtually sidelined. The period between the end of the General Elections and the Presidential elections being less than a fortnight, the parties must at least indicate their possible choices, their actual preference could be announced till after the Elections. The present conspiracy of silence will give room for backroom manipulations. The Constitutional requirements about fulfillment of qualifications by the Presidential aspirants should be so transparent that not an iota of doubt or controversy should exist. Though his bureaucratic shortcomings were well known, Ghulam Ishaq Khan (GIK) made a fine start as President, succumbing later to his baser instincts and destroying the respect he had earned in the ushering in of democracy. GIK brought the country to the brink of political and economic apocalypse by manipulations that froze all government activity. Such tendencies for malfeasance and subterfuge must be examined thoroughly in the individual Presidential aspirant.
As the point man in the struggle against late Gen Zia’s Martial Law, Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan was the obvious preference of Ms Bhutto and her allies but he was ditched by her in December 1988 in fulfillment of the package deal (made in Washington, not in Heaven) she had to accept to come to power. Often derided for his lack of a popular base of support, the Nawabzada has been a necessary cog for the Opposition for the last three decades in combining against a ruler, dictatorial or democratic. As a COP leader, he saw the end of President Ayub Khan, as a PNA leader the last of Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and as a PDA leader, first the dismissal and later the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Respected among the politicians’ community, the Nawabzada nevertheless does not command that much admiration within military or bureaucratic circles as a potential President should. A possible candidate of the rapidly unravelling PDA, PPP’s political pragmatism may mean he is already deemed expendable. There are rumours that former CM Mir Afzal Khan, much more of a wily fox than GIK, may have opted out of taking part in the elections to the Assemblies on “health grounds” to remain a viable PPP candidate for President. His tendency to switch sides and principles on an “as required basis” are well known.
Former CM Sindh Syed Ghous Ali Shah has often been touted as a potential Presidential Candidate on the Punjabi PM Sindhi President (or vice versa) formula. He has an atrocious reputation with respect to corruption, particularly concerning real estate and privatisation deals besides other known indiscretions concerning his son. He is easily the worst choice for the high office of the President and despite his personal loyalty to Nawaz Sharif, the PML would be well advised against it.
Speaker Gohar Ayub Khan’s candidacy is more potent. During the 38-day crisis when Nawaz Sharif was out in the cold, he gained importance as the point person in Nawaz Sharif’s quest to come back as PM. Despite family ties to the Saifullahs (and thus by extension to GIK), Gohar Ayub remained resolute and thus gained the lasting respect of the PML hierarchy. There is a residual respect in certain regions for being late President Ayub’s son but then his armed cavalcade through Liaquatabad of the early 60s during the Presidential elections has not been forgotten by the people of Karachi. His name has appeared on the loan and utility defaulters list and his role as Speaker was not seen to be neutral by the Opposition who will oppose him tooth and nail. Despite various handicaps he may still be Nawaz Sharif’s first choice as candidate as a debt to fulfil.
Though he has not announced his candidacy as such, Gen (Retd) Mirza Aslam Beg has made his intentions about availability for being drafted quite clear. As the COAS who took the right turn to democracy during the fateful few hours of Aug 17, 1988 on the death of Gen Ziaul Haq, he is respected for curbing the military’s “Bonapartist” tendencies and ushering in democracy besides making the Army, by his policy of Glasnost, to be less than the sacred imperial cow they had become over the years. Gen Beg may have evoked intellectual discourse among the intelligentsia but does not have solid credentials with either of the major political groupings who tend to see him with certain suspicion and apprehension. The present military hierarchy have been publicly distancing themselves from his pronouncements about a Constitutional role for the Armed Forces. The unfortunate episode of seeming to support Saddam Hussain during the Kuwait crisis cost Pakistan dearly after the Gulf War. Both Egypt and Pakistan had almost the same number of troops in the war, Egypt got over US $ 12 billion debt condoned while Pakistan almost got “terrorist state” status and was driven to economic bankruptcy by a series of well-conditioned actions.
Air Marshal (Retd) Asghar Khan has always been seen as a potential Presidential Candidate. He has had an illustrious service career as the C-in-C of the PAF during its formative years followed by a good stint as MD of PIA. As a political entity his most potent period was 1968-1978 when he was the main force in bringing down Ayub Khan and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. The Air Marshal remained an ardent foe of Zia’s Martial Law, suffering privations because of his constant, unrelenting opposition. A soft spoken person, he is the acknowledged “Mr Clean” in Pakistani politics today, an asset that many hold dear to their heart given the proliferation of corruption in politics today. Asghar Khan gave Ms Bhutto credibility at a very crucial time in 1990 when as the dismissed PM she was being pilloried for corruption and for being too soft on India. Disagreeing with the Long March as a means to bring down an elected Government and disillusioned about pledges broken as the PPP regained its strength, Asghar Khan left the PDA and has recently come into an electoral arrangement with PML. Despite the estrangement neither Ms Bhutto or the Air Marshal have attacked each other, preferring to retain their personal relationship despite political divergence, a most healthy sign for Pakistani politics. The Air Marshal is a man of unbending principles and commands considerable respect among the Mohajir community, Senior Citizens (50-65 years age group) and the Armed Forces. The crucial swing vote of 18-20% (Mohajir and Senior Citizens) in 27-30 urban constituencies in Punjab and Sarhad could be vital for the PML which is running slightly behind the PPP in the urban areas. Nawaz Sharif has been only too glad to have the veteran politician and elder statesmen on his side, if his campaign appearances are strategically planned the Air Marshal’s endorsement for Nawaz Sharif could be lethal for the PPP in key constituencies that are presently on a thin edge.
The dark horse emerging from all this is Moeen Qureshi. Coming in as PM for holding free and fair elections while nursing the economy along, the supposedly lame duck Caretaker has embarked on a series of reforms and major steps that should have been the prerogative of any honest government and makes him Presidential material. He has had the courage of putting his reputation on the line on a no-holds barred campaign in trying to set things right in Pakistan. The release of the list of sacred cows in the form of loan defaulters was unbelievable, the banning of drug barons from the electoral process has added to his stature. However, the rise in prices was not well thought out and could have been done in a more phased manner with more sensitivity to the sufferings of the poor. The common man votes with his stomach and adverse mass perception may work against his seemingly reluctant Presidential candidacy. He recently took a swing at Nawaz Sharif’s “yellow cab” scheme and thus has made himself less neutral. Rumours abound of a “Made in Washington” formula for Punjabi Moeen Qureshi’s Presidency with an acceptable Ms Benazir’s PM-ship. It should be interesting to note the military’s reaction to this keeping the question of surrendering the nuclear option in mind. His health could be a hindrance though he has had a remission from stomach cancer and seems to be bearing up well. The nation has every reason to be grateful to this brave and honest man for his many initiatives in so short a time, a class act that future PMs will be hard put to emulate.
Despite being from the PML, Acting President Wasim Sajjad has acquitted himself quite honourably since his takeover of the Presidency from GIK. He commands considerable respect in the Senate from all the political groupings. A hung Parliament may well see him emerging as a consensus candidate of both the major political groupings. However, in the Supreme Court contempt case against Gen Beg, his credibility was called into question because logic seemed to be on the side of Gen Beg’s version of events. Despite that mishap, Wasim Sajjad remains a fine and upright person whose handicap (aside from rather a short “service to Pakistan” factor) may well be that he is still too young to be President.
Controversy in one form or the other may eliminate Ghous Ali Shah and possibly Gohar Ayub from the running, similarly ambiguity and unproven suspicions seems to swirl around Gen Beg’s possible candidacy. Moeen Qureshi’s Punjabi background would make him a non-starter for support because of the unspoken clause of our Constitution of having the President and PM from different Provinces, though he would fit in well with PPP’s scheme of things as their silent choice as President. To dispel the hint of suspicion of a PPP bias, Moeen Qureshi should firmly announce his non-candidacy even if drafted. Given the GIK experience, Mir Afzal Khan does not look a viable candidate anytime. Asghar Khan and Wasim Sajjad thus come out as the more potent Presidential aspirants. The repeal/amendment of the controversial 8th Amendment which has given the President undue powers in a Parliamentary system of government was the foremost bone of contention pre-elections and now seems to have been forgotten by everybody. Air Marshal Asghar Khan is committed to reducing the powers of the President. If service, experience and sacrifice are to be factors in the choice of the President, Asghar Khan becomes much more of credible candidate because of his persisting credibility with all the people of Pakistan as a man of honesty and integrity who has remained clean throughout his life. The President-to-be must also be a person who should not have tendencies to turn into an ogre (a la GIK) once in office. On these considerations the Air Marshal should win hands down. Unfortunately, that is not what the powers-that-be want, they want to select somebody through backroom intrigue. Most of the “powers-that-be” have been found out to be loan defaulters, tax dodgers, utility payment defaulters, drug barons, etc. Maybe it is time to buck the system and have a genuine person in the President’s chair. Having been starved for this since the Quaid’s death, Pakistan deserves no less.
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