Sindh’s Centrifugal Forces
Within six weeks of re-entry into the body politic of the nation, democracy is performing in line with the general claim made by its detractors that most politicians of the third world put self-interest over good governance as their primary objective. With the PML (Q) nominee for PM Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali barely passing muster with a heterogeneous mix of votes (including that of 10 “patriots” from PPP-P), the battle shifted to the Provinces. With the PML (Q) and MMA having quite a majority respectively, the governance of Punjab and NWFP was never in doubt. The situation in Balochistan and Sindh Provinces is another story! MMA may have got the immediate edge in Balochistan by winning over the nationalist parties but the vital ground of Sindh (and with it the prize catch of the cash-rich port city of Karachi) has become a veritable quagmire. No party having a clear majority, it was either the PPP-P or the MQM that could lead a possible coalition of smaller parties or they could join together in a Provincial coalition opposed to the Centre. The smaller parties with the “swing vote” had different ideas, they thought it was their prerogative to name the Chief Minister. On that premise all possible permutations and combinations floundered and the Governor postponed the Sindh Assembly “Oath-Taking” Session indefinitely till matters got sorted out as to who had the clear mandate to govern. The possible options are mind-boggling enough to call into question the core character of the political parties in the fray, do they in fact have an ideology or are their ambitions confined only to coming to power by any means, fair and foul?
Maulana Fazlur Rahman has been living in the heady bliss that he was Ms Benazir’s first (and only) choice to be PM. That was conveyed not only directly after the elections but was repeated ad nauseam by Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan. Imagine the good Maulana’s seething anger when he discovered what everyone and his uncle already knew, she was only using him as a willing pawn to blackmail the military regime. Hell hath no greater fury than a Maulana scorned by a woman (and a politician at that), the PPP-P may well live to repent the games Mohtrama has been playing with the JUI (F) Chief’s emotions, more importantly, with his aspirations. Her scathing denunciation of MMA, a far cry removed from her stance availing at the end of October when the PPP-P and MMA were close to forging a coalition, was very ill-received by the MMA leaders. Keeping intact her normal posture of “doublespeak” for different audiences, Ms Benazir now feigns that she was always against the “fundamentalists”. The hard fact remains she was always ready to bed them politically as long as she got what she wanted, mainly that NAB charges against her husband and herself dropped. Since the military regime called her bluff (and it is believed Uncle Sam also showed annoyance over her evolving coalition plans), she has scrambled from one political option to another in trying to hold the Federal Regime hostage to her designs. Once Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali was past the first post, PPP-P fell back on trying to hold their Sindh bastion.
The Dust Settles, Somewhat
It is only now beginning to dawn on the people of Pakistan that despite themselves they have managed to pull off somewhat of a miracle by not even giving a “heavy” (Mian Nawaz Sharif-type) mandate (10% of the available vote) to any of the political parties. With the Election Commission reporting 40% plus of voting percentage, PML (Q) and PPP-P got almost an equal number of votes, nobody got more than 10% of votes that could be cast. Claiming a “revolution” to anyone who will listen, MMA’s vote tally amounts to a grand 4%. The number of seats does not truly reflect the reality on the ground in the “first-past-the-post-system”. The MMA constituent parties got almost the same number of votes they normally get in any general election, this time their votes were counted together in a Qazi engineered “alliance”. With the main PML split into PML (Q) and PML (N), and both PPP and ANP also split in NWFP, MMA swept them aside in close races. A low turnout in any election always helps the more organized political machine, whose rank and file is more likely to turn out to vote en masse. The anti-American factor helped solidify the MMA vote in the border areas of NWFP and Balochistan but not as overwhelmingly as given out to be. Maulana Fazlur Rehman of JUI (F) may strut his stuff as a potential PM but with less than 60 votes (including the ones reserved for women) in the National Assembly out of 340, or less than 20%, Maulana Sahib’s expectations are rather over-ambitious. At best his posturing is a bargaining position, meant to get maximum benefit for himself, his party and the alliance, MMA, and in that order. As a close ally of Ms Benazir, he managed that to his benefit in the last PPP regime.
Back Home All is Not Well
Even her detractors do not attempt to deny that Ms Benazir is a charismatic figure tailor-made to exploit the best out of the western media. Given a gift of the rhetoric, Pakistan’s PM is also a forceful advocate of Pakistani causes when she puts her mind to it. As a well educated, intelligent leader of international acclaim, it was always an even bet that she would vow her hosts in the US. What goodies she comes back with will make a considerable impact on her fortunes at home which are dependant upon a more cynical lot who tend to be impressed more by the birds in hand (F-16s) rather than promises in the bush.
Ms Benazir’s festering problem is Karachi, Pakistan’s major and only port city. While every shade of public opinion recognizes that it is imperative to restore democracy at the grassroots level, she was recently quoted in an interview to NEWSWEEK as dismissing the Local Bodies election option in Karachi for 2 or 3 years. While she may be right in speaking about the prevailing conditions in the city as an obstacle of sorts, the fact remains that any solution requires democracy as a pre-requisite. The leadership vacuum at the street level has become too dangerous to ignore. Unfortunately since her electoral base is in rural Sindh, the PPP is heavily dependant upon the quota system to safeguard the interests of its prized constituents, that is directly in confrontation to the merit factor which is the main component of the urban-based MQM platform. While the ideological divide is such that though a temporary marriage of convenience is possible, Rudyard Kipling’s “the twain shall never meet” adequately describes the possibility of an MQM-PPP rapprochement. However one lives in hope and given the Mandela-De Klerk meeting of the minds in South Africa and the Arafat-Rabin patch-up of sorts in the Middle East, it is quite possible that our leaders will take into account the devastation that will continue to happen if an agreement of sorts is not hammered out soon. The problem for the PPP is that while MQM is central to Karachi’s quagmire, the PPP is as much incidental to the city’s present and future as the PML, as such the option is very much available to the MQM to choose either. While practically it may make sense to the MQM to come to a compromise with the rural majority, given historical connotations their preference would be the PML. We thus have an eternal triangle of sorts with no one prepared to come to terms by giving some leeway.
The Buck Stops Here
In the National Assembly elections on Oct 6, the PPP (along with its PML(J) allies) had obtained a comfortable lead over PML(N) and its allies but not resounding enough for an absolute majority. The subsequent Provincial elections on Oct 9 saw PPP get an overwhelming success in its Sindh stronghold, a slender lead (along with its allies) in Punjab but conceding majority to PML(N) (and its allies) in Sarhad and Balochistan. Since our people tend to worship only the rising sun, the election of the NA Speaker (and later of the PM) clearly indicated that the sign of the times was that the PPP was slowly but surely gaining strength. This perception was force-multiplied when the PML(N) failed to get a single independent or minority member in the Punjab. However, both in Sarhad and Balochistan, the PML(N) and its allies succeeded in forming governments with the help of independents and others. The stage was thus set for the Presidential elections.
Analysing this scenario, it would have been expected of the PML(N) to go for a consensus with PPP in the matter of the choice of President. With PPP firmly in the saddle and having proved its majority, Ms Benazir could have sat back and coasted home. However, Ms Benazir was faced with three major problems, viz. (1) the advent of GIK into the Presidential race asking for the proverbial pound of flesh (2) the candidacies of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan threatened to draw crucial votes away in a possible one-on-one race and (3) the seeming refusal of PML(N) to consider any candidate except one from among its own list thereby negating the concept of consensus or compromise.
The Men Who Would be President
The General Elections has evoked such focus of attention that the Presidential elections, most important of all in the context of the practical experience of politics in Pakistan over the years, has been virtually sidelined. The period between the end of the General Elections and the Presidential elections being less than a fortnight, the parties must at least indicate their possible choices, their actual preference could be announced till after the Elections. The present conspiracy of silence will give room for backroom manipulations. The Constitutional requirements about fulfillment of qualifications by the Presidential aspirants should be so transparent that not an iota of doubt or controversy should exist. Though his bureaucratic shortcomings were well known, Ghulam Ishaq Khan (GIK) made a fine start as President, succumbing later to his baser instincts and destroying the respect he had earned in the ushering in of democracy. GIK brought the country to the brink of political and economic apocalypse by manipulations that froze all government activity. Such tendencies for malfeasance and subterfuge must be examined thoroughly in the individual Presidential aspirant.
As the point man in the struggle against late Gen Zia’s Martial Law, Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan was the obvious preference of Ms Bhutto and her allies but he was ditched by her in December 1988 in fulfillment of the package deal (made in Washington, not in Heaven) she had to accept to come to power. Often derided for his lack of a popular base of support, the Nawabzada has been a necessary cog for the Opposition for the last three decades in combining against a ruler, dictatorial or democratic. As a COP leader, he saw the end of President Ayub Khan, as a PNA leader the last of Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and as a PDA leader, first the dismissal and later the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Respected among the politicians’ community, the Nawabzada nevertheless does not command that much admiration within military or bureaucratic circles as a potential President should. A possible candidate of the rapidly unravelling PDA, PPP’s political pragmatism may mean he is already deemed expendable. There are rumours that former CM Mir Afzal Khan, much more of a wily fox than GIK, may have opted out of taking part in the elections to the Assemblies on “health grounds” to remain a viable PPP candidate for President. His tendency to switch sides and principles on an “as required basis” are well known.