PPP Wins Battle, May Lose the War
In the National Assembly elections of Oct 6, 1993 the PPP with 86 seats got an edge of 14 seats over PML(N) with 72 seats. The failure to get a decisive knockout in the first round is catastrophic for the PPP given the percentage of votes Nawaz Sharif has managed to gain. For the first time in Pakistan’s history, after the Quaid had led the Muslim League in election victories pre-1947, the Old Party has made a decisive impact in Pakistan’s political life as a genuine political entity. Emerging from the clutches of the Establishment and machinations thereof, the Muslim League has broken the myth of invincibility that the PPP had inculcated over the years. It is most important to note that the PPP’s vote bank has remained secure at around 38-39% nationally with strong roots in all four Provinces.
Muslim League national vote percentage-wise was 40% with majority votes over PPP in Punjab (5%) and Sarhad (4%). It is now time to remove the (N) suffix from PML and acclaim Nawaz Sharif as the rightful heir of the Muslim League heritage. The Muslim Leaguers who were with Chattha should seriously think of either merging with the PPP or returning to the mainline ML fold. The lack of a clear majority for PPP can only translate at best into a weak Federal Government with the possibility of only one Provincial Government under its direct authority. Given the sorry history of Federal interference in Provincial affairs this could be the prescription that would be most advisable for Pakistan’s integrity and sovereignty. In any case the first crack at making the Federal Government rightfully belongs to PPP in the supreme interest of democracy in Pakistan, one hopes that this will come about.
The best news so far for the Pakistan electorate, other than the metamorphosis of the hodge-podge of smaller parties and factions into genuine two-party system is that the MQM(A) has decided to come out of the cold and take part in the political process, partly to help Muslim League but mostly to end its isolation that could have been an unfortunate catastrophe for its rank and file. “H” in MQM(H) now stands for HISTORY, another sordid episode in the long and sorry history of Establishment-created embarrassments for the evolution of a political process is now behind us. Fighting the elections of Oct 9 as a PML ally, the MQM could give the PML quite a number of seats in urban-rural constituencies in interior Sindh besides their own urban strength. This would give the PPP a run for their money in their Sindh stronghold and a strong Opposition in the Provincial Assembly, if not the government. Staying out of the political process creates negative dynamics which would have been fatal for MQM, in the reaction thereof the peace and harmony in the cities of Karachi and Hyderabad would have irretrievably destabilized. In the electoral alliance between PML and MQM one sees the seeds of eventual merger with the PML.
An analysis of the results show that PPP’s dominance across Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Gujrat and Faisalabad was only possible because of the dissident PML vote and even then it was close. War hero Raja Nadir Pervaiz lost by only 107 votes. PPP’s first real effect on the electorate started south of Vehari, where it was really devastating but again it was a coalition effort of the landed aristocracy brought about by Nawabzada Nasrullah, Mustafa Khar, Balkh Sher Mazari, the Qureshis, the Gilanis, etc. In real terms, on a one-on-one fight that is almost certain in the Provincial Elections all anti-PPP forces will coalesce around Nawaz Sharif’s person thereby increasing the vote percentage. The PPP will also get some extra votes but this will be 7:3 in PML’s favour. In Sarhad, the ANP has done surprisingly badly in the Peshawar valley but the PPP has always been strong in that area. With a sweep of the Haripur-Hazara belt, the PML can forge together a working coalition. About Balochistan the government-to-be is anybody’s guess in keeping with that Province’s peculiar political culture and style.
There is no doubt that the PPP remains a dominant political force to be reckoned with but can it govern the Centre with only a shaky majority and with a least 3 (three) Provinces opposed to it? That could be a recipe for political disaster, a risk that the PPP may not like to take. However, it is in the interest of the democratic process that the PPP gets its chance while a strong PML opposition makes it accountable to the people of Pakistan.
With clear majority in two Provinces and the Senate, the PML would be in a position to name the President, the choice being between the acting President Wasim Sajjad or dark horse Senator Sartaj Aziz in the absence of favourite Gohar Ayub Khan. While Wasim Sajjad has acquitted himself extremely honourably, the services of honest, credible and loyal Sartaj Aziz to a resurgent PML cannot be discounted. Nawaz Sharif will need a trusted person from his inner circle in the Presidential mansion. Sartaj Aziz is a non-controversial figure very much respected in the PML by everybody and his candidacy in the prevailing political circumstances supersedes that of other deserving persons like Air Marshal Asghar Khan. Though one may find him to be a reluctant candidate who would never push his own name forward, Sartaj Aziz comes across as the one person who would fit into the PML future strategy for its vision of Pakistan for the next few years.
One sees the present scenario unfolding in PML’s favour with the results of the Provincial elections. Given the political polarisation, even if PPP makes the Federal Government, for which it has every right given its lead in the NA elections it is quite possible that elections for the National Assembly may be held in February or March 1994. If Nawaz Sharif should somehow contrive to make the Federal Government, one does not see him ruling the country with an insecure cobbled-together majority, so in either case NA elections are on the cards. It may also be quid pro quo for the MQM support in the PA elections. With Provincial Governments in PML hands for the most part and the anti-PPP forces merging with the PML, the next time around the PML vote may reach or even go beyond 50% giving Nawaz Sharif a decisive majority. Having failed to prove that Nawaz Sharif has feet of clay, the PPP is on the defensive from now on. The momentum and initiatives are now in the hands of PML and we will see a decisive swing in Nawaz Sharif’s favour in the Provincial Elections. One cannot count out the PPP just yet and the portents are a genuine two-horse race in the future as the “also rans” decide to piggy-back on the shoulder of either the PPP or the PML.
For Muslim League Oct 6 was a positive watershed heralding its rejuvenation as political entity, for the religious parties, Oct 6 was a Waterloo of sorts. The Muslim League also succeeded in shrugging off a “fundamentalist” mantle in western eyes and dependence on extremist whims and caprices. For the PPP, Oct 6 may have been a Pyrrhic victory. Having won the first battle, they stand to lose the war. For the first time in 25 years, the PPP juggernaut has been stopped and the tide has been turned, politically.
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