Political Detente
The simple arithmetic of the elections of the NA Speaker Tanvir Gilani (106 votes over 90 for Gohar Ayub Khan) means that Ms Bhutto will be elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan in the National Assembly today. While the PPP and its allies did get a slender majority in the October 6 NA elections, the support of independents, minority seats and others gives the PPP a comfortable working lead in Parliamentary terms over the PML(N). By the same yardstick PML(N)/ANP are expected to make a stable government in NWFP while squeaking past the post in Punjab where strongman Mian Shahbaz Sharif is the best PML(N) choice for CM in the circumstances. As the Nawaz pointman in earlier negotiations with Ms Benazir he does have a working relationship with her. Balochistan has its own peculiar political culture and it is expected that JWP will take the lead in making an ambivalent Government supported by either the PML(N) or PPP or even both. In Sindh, the PPP is poised to make a strong government but without the support of urban-based MQM it may not be stable as respects the law and order environment. The scenario outlined because of the elections has caused analysts and observers to refer to it as a “split mandate”, as a matter of fact that message by the electorate is the best thing to happen to Pakistan for a long, long time.
In 1988, the PPP made a strong Federal Government while the IJI made a comparable government in the Punjab. Their strength in their respective bastions meant that dialogue was shown the door in preference to acrimonious confrontation. Both the major political groupings proceeded to run riot with regard to malfeasance in the absence of the accountability factor that a strong in-House Opposition represents. In contrast, for the first time in the democratic history of the country no political grouping, except possibly in Sindh, has the absolute authority to ride roughshod over the other. In Sindh, the MQM’s overwhelming urban-based majority imposes its own inherent check and balance on PPP, Ms Benazir will rise in the esteem of the electorate if despite her absolute majority she displays political pragmatism by accommodating the MQM in the governance of Sindh. In the ultimate analysis, the common citizen will emerge as the greatest beneficiary as both the major political parties keep on vying for his/her attention rather than consign them to the dung-heap of benign neglect till the election process starts all over again. By voting for both political forces in substantial numbers, around 39-40% with a slight edge of over 750,000 votes for PML(N), the voters have sent a strong signal that instead of confrontation, political detente is the order of the day. By giving the balance 20% of the vote count to a virtual plethora of others (the swing vote in almost every Assembly), the voters have ensured that the substantial not-so-silent minority will be given pride of place in the attention of both the major political groupings. It is important to ensure that the minority vote does not become the voice of political blackmail, an acid test of the strength of character of our majority leaders in each Assembly.
