The Opposition Unites
Mian Nawaz Sharif has done for the Opposition a favour the lately lamented Opposition could not do for themselves, he has united them and given them a fresh lease of life. Only the Jamaat-e-Islami remains outside “the Alliance”, determined to go solo in trying to remove the government in power. As everyone knows, only the religious parties and the regional ones like ANP and MQM have cadres that can face off administrative power in the streets. Qazi Hussain Ahmed is a good tactical leader but has a history of wrong strategic decisions and JI’s remaining aloof may mean success or failure on the part of forces inimical to the PM, particularly in stage-managing strikes in the urban cities of Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and the twin cities of Rawalpindi-Islamabad.
How has the “heavy mandate” like the one Mian Nawaz Sharif obtained in 1997 (approximately 8 million votes out of a population of 130 million, registered voters being 50 million it comes to 16% only) come to grief in less than 18 months? Why has the print media that had united to decry Ms. Benazir and support his cause now almost united against him? Why are people who believed in his sincerity now doubting even his credibility? Why are people who used to believe that with a businessmen background he was most suited to re-invigorating the economy, now shudder at such economic initiatives that have brought this country close to flirting with economic doom? Enemies of Mian Nawaz Sharif can easily do a hatchet job on him, only a person who remains a friend of his can do an objective study of his predicament and how he has single-handedly managed to bring it about. Whatever crisis the PM now faces is of his own making. One can blame the economic ills the country faces on previous governments, notably that of Ms Bhutto who in good eastern tradition let her husband Asif Zardari run riot, the fact remains that inconsistent policies and lack of real commitment has further eroded our economic infrastructure so that we now have to thank our parallel economy for remaining financially afloat.
Political Detente
The simple arithmetic of the elections of the NA Speaker Tanvir Gilani (106 votes over 90 for Gohar Ayub Khan) means that Ms Bhutto will be elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan in the National Assembly today. While the PPP and its allies did get a slender majority in the October 6 NA elections, the support of independents, minority seats and others gives the PPP a comfortable working lead in Parliamentary terms over the PML(N). By the same yardstick PML(N)/ANP are expected to make a stable government in NWFP while squeaking past the post in Punjab where strongman Mian Shahbaz Sharif is the best PML(N) choice for CM in the circumstances. As the Nawaz pointman in earlier negotiations with Ms Benazir he does have a working relationship with her. Balochistan has its own peculiar political culture and it is expected that JWP will take the lead in making an ambivalent Government supported by either the PML(N) or PPP or even both. In Sindh, the PPP is poised to make a strong government but without the support of urban-based MQM it may not be stable as respects the law and order environment. The scenario outlined because of the elections has caused analysts and observers to refer to it as a “split mandate”, as a matter of fact that message by the electorate is the best thing to happen to Pakistan for a long, long time.
In 1988, the PPP made a strong Federal Government while the IJI made a comparable government in the Punjab. Their strength in their respective bastions meant that dialogue was shown the door in preference to acrimonious confrontation. Both the major political groupings proceeded to run riot with regard to malfeasance in the absence of the accountability factor that a strong in-House Opposition represents. In contrast, for the first time in the democratic history of the country no political grouping, except possibly in Sindh, has the absolute authority to ride roughshod over the other. In Sindh, the MQM’s overwhelming urban-based majority imposes its own inherent check and balance on PPP, Ms Benazir will rise in the esteem of the electorate if despite her absolute majority she displays political pragmatism by accommodating the MQM in the governance of Sindh. In the ultimate analysis, the common citizen will emerge as the greatest beneficiary as both the major political parties keep on vying for his/her attention rather than consign them to the dung-heap of benign neglect till the election process starts all over again. By voting for both political forces in substantial numbers, around 39-40% with a slight edge of over 750,000 votes for PML(N), the voters have sent a strong signal that instead of confrontation, political detente is the order of the day. By giving the balance 20% of the vote count to a virtual plethora of others (the swing vote in almost every Assembly), the voters have ensured that the substantial not-so-silent minority will be given pride of place in the attention of both the major political groupings. It is important to ensure that the minority vote does not become the voice of political blackmail, an acid test of the strength of character of our majority leaders in each Assembly.