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D Minus 8 and Counting

Going into the final stretch, one is struck by the fact that while positive factors of the two major political groupings may be important for their success, the negative factors would be much more lethal for their failure. This is politics upside down instead of right side up but this is Pakistan 1993, that’s the way it is and that’s the way it’s going to be.

Ms Benazir remains a great crowd-puller and if the election gauges were to be calibrated on the volume of the crowds and the number of party flags, the PPP would be a sure thing at Ladbroke’s. However, the only thing that keeps betting shops like Ladbroke’s profitable is that people lose more often than winning. On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif’s performance has been extraordinary for a person whose previous record was largely believed to be propped up by Establishment support. Not only is he matching Ms Benazir crowd for crowd but he is the first non-Sindhi leader who has drawn a segment of support within Sindh during his repeated forays into the interior to deny PPP a complete sweep in the Province.

In Sindh the gnawing Murtaza problem will probably take away only a couple of seats from PPP both in the NA and the PA but it is the negative “terrorist” image he is giving to the PPP in the heartland of the Punjab that is hurting. The PPP diehards will still cast their votes for PPP come hell or high water but Murtaza does arouse the ire of the great silent conservative majority of the populace who may not fully subscribe to Nawaz Sharif but are “terrorised” enough by the prospect of the return of a possible Sindhi secessionist (supported by arch-enemy India) to come out and cast their vote against PPP. A current joke going around is that the Caretaker Government may give Murtaza Bhutto any number of amnesties, they will still have to arrest him on arrival as he would probably hijack the aircraft bringing him to Pakistan out of sheer force of habit. At the same time, there is a widely held belief in the Punjab, Sarhad and the intelligentsia (reinforced by Murtaza’s “withdrawal” on “request” from many seats) that the Ms Benazir-Murtaza disagreement is a cleverly crafted “Noora-Kushti” to facilitate the return of the Prodigal Son without casting aspersion on Ms Benazir’s patriotism. This allegation does not seem to be true but there is no way of putting the Murtaza genie back in the bottle and the best PPP can hope for is damage control. Reports that Indian Zee TV has been contracted by PPP to project progressive election results are also rather alarming, as anyone and his uncle knows Zee TV is a RAW supported creation and if this rumour is true, one may well ask why should a rabid anti-Pakistan entity like RAW support the PPP campaign? It will only harden the conservative vote against the party if the “cosy with India” muck sticks.

As a truly unguided missile in politics today, Begum Nusrat Bhutto has no peer. Her “born to rule” pronouncements have only been exceeded by the “Benazir PM, Murtaza CM” suggestion. The Bhutto message has been so fragmented, it is indeed amazing how Ms Benazir has still kept the PPP momentum going. Only her personality has managed to hold together the grassroots organisation of the Party despite its volte face on the sum total of its original 1970 manifesto and rejection of its socialist credentials for a more capitalist order “social contract”. The ghost of die-hard socialist and original PPP ideologue, late J.A. Rahim, Secretary General of the original PPP, must feel vindicated at his assertions as far back as 1973-74 (reiterated many times over the past 20 years by Mairaj Mohammad Khan, Shaikh Rasheed, Meraj Khaled and others) that the Party had been taken over by Waderas, capitalists, turncoat bureaucrats and opportunists who had only donned the garb of socialism to fool the gullible masses and separate them from their precious vote.

Nawaz Sharif has struck a raw chord among the people of Pakistan like no other PML leader has before him other than the Quaid-e-Azam. Shorn of Establishment propping-up Nawaz Sharif has come out as a populist leader who is inspiring the masses at the grassroots level. As the Americans would say, he has the BIG MO (momentum) despite the fact that the landed aristocracy has ganged up against the urban business-oriented constituency he represents. The distribution of lands among the Haris in Sindh has scared the agriculture class out of their wits, he is seen as a dangerous entity out to destroy their entire way of life. The hard-core support for Ms Benazir in the Punjab among the rural elite is because they are determined to stop Nawaz Sharif at all costs. In a topsy turvy alignment, progressive democratic forces are on the PML(N) platform while the PPP comes across as a dynastic institution of the landed aristocracy. The issue is hardly in doubt in Sindh where the only question is the size of the Bhutto majority, in the heartland of the Punjab the fickle voters are likely to do anything from turning their backs on the promise that Nawaz Sharif holds out to them to the other extreme of repudiating their landlord masters once and for all. On the other hand, despite being extremely precocious and vocal, the PPP workers seldom fail to toe party discipline in voting as a solid bloc, as such they exist as a more potent, composite force in politics.

Some of the glitter of Nawaz Sharif’s liberal reforms has been sullied somewhat by the financial mess created in the last nine months. Most of it was hardly the fault of the IJI regime given GIK’s propensity to play ducks and drakes with elected Governments, thereby paralysing their managerial capacity and diverting their attention from profound matters of governance to focussing on sheer survival. Certain grey areas such as privatisation, the losing of control at the fag end over the yellow cab scheme, the seeming lack of total commitment in going after Coop scam defaulters, etc have caused the intelligentsia, if not the public, to have nagging doubts. The Caretaker Government has shown up their immediate predecessor regime in much more bad light than they would really seem to be responsible for as they could take initiatives that political governments would normally find difficult. However MQ’s government has done Nawaz Sharif a favour by giving the impression that they are carrying out the supposed American mandate to keep him from making a government. The supposed “capping” of the nuclear potential will be exploited to PML(N) advantage.

PML(N)’s greatest problem area is the defection of PML(J) to the PPP on the left and the desertion of PIF on the right. While Nawaz Sharif has managed to swell the broad centre, the erosion at the edges could mean critical votes in sensitive constituencies. However, rumours are rife that many PML(J) candidates are having second thoughts, if Asad Junejo comes back to the Nawaz Sharif fold, Chattha will be left up the creek without the Junejo paddle. It was widely expected that the PIF would eventually swing to the PML(N) way in the penultimate phase of elections after Qazi Hussain Ahmad had got his pound of flesh but instead of a rapprochement matters have gone from bad to worse. At maximum PIF will win between 6-7 seats in contrast to the 15 they would have won in an electoral adjustment/alliance with PML(N), however PML(N) stands to lose about 7 safe seats without PIF solid support. There is some talk about support from PIF dissidents, particularly in the urban areas, who are fed up with Qazi Saheb’s intransigence (and worried sick about the resultant election outcome) but this may be at best wishful thinking given the realities of the JI workers (like PPP stalwarts) keeping party discipline among its cadres. However, analysts must note that the TNFJ/TJP vote is also NOT available to the PPP as a solid bloc.

The PPP begins with a great advantage of 33 NA seats (26 Sindh, 7 minority) but Nawaz Sharif has brought the PML(N) support total in Sindh from zero to 4 definitely, maybe even 6 to 8 seats. With last minute electoral adjustment/understanding between PIF and PML(N) the party position in the NA will be (along with supporting parties and minorities and not counting FATA’s 8 seats) PML(N) 85 seats, PPP 74 seats, MQM(A) 12 seats, all other non-aligned parties 26 seats and independent 12 seats, given that 7 minority seats will go to PPP and 3 to PML(N). With PIF actively contesting the PML(N), Nawaz Sharif’s tally could drop by 7 seats to 78, PPP gains 4 seats to make it a dead heat 78, MQM(A) remains on 12 seats, independents go upto 15 seats and non-PML(N)/PPP (and supporting) parties have the remaining 26 (these figures are based on a crude pre-election poll, the margin of error is plus/minus 6% on a voting turnout of 50%). The lesser the turnout, better the chances for PPP. For every 1% less turnout less than 50% add 1 seat for PPP and minus 1 seat for PML(N). Similarly for every 1% turnout more add 1 seat for PML(N) and deduct 1 seat from PPP. With or without PIF support, PML(N) will make the Government in Punjab and Sarhad but if PML(N) succeeds in making the Government in the Centre with a comfortable coalition, speculation is rife that Makhdoom Amin Fahim could be coerced to lead a splinter PPP group and emerge as a consensus CM Sindh with MQM(A) and PML(Functional) support. However, if PPP makes the Government in the Centre, for which it will have to have MQM(A) support like in 1988, it will have a strong Sindh Government and a PPP-supported Government in Balochistan. In Sarhad, the initial PPP momentum due to the tripartite alliance (PPP, JUI(F) and PML(J)) has been lost due to infighting and it will require a superhuman effort by PPP superstar Aftab Sherpao to make a coalition.

Given the above scenario, we are either going to see a Nawaz Sharif government or fall back to the concept of a National Government. If no party has a clear majority and a hung Parliament creates conditions of political instability, the resuscitation/rejuvenation of MQ will become a national priority. This is the backhanded compliment the people of Pakistan would have given to their political leaders, a national consensus to tackle the country’s problems on a bipartisan basis. This is not an original Pakistan formula, it is one derived from common sense. However, as everyone knows that is one thing most uncommon in Pakistan politics.

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