The Doomsday Scenario Wattoo and Rwanda
Punjab Chief Minister, Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo, has proved himself to be a wily politician and a capable administrator. Where Ghulam Ishaq Khan and late Jam Sadiq Ali, the last two great exponents of the Machiavellian brand of politics in the country, had the benefit of sweeping bureaucratic powers and ruthless force respectively, Punjab’s Sphinx (nobody ever remembers him smiling or showing any other emotion) rules over the roost with a small base of only 16 members of the PML (J) along with an equal number of independents and minority members who joined Wattoo post his accession to power. An increasingly frustrated 100 odd legislators of his nominal PPP allies are kept in the dark and the cold alternately, not to count the 100 odd legislators of his old ally, the PML (N), that he has kept at bay. A vociferous Opposition would love to have him for breakfast but take comfort in the fact that Wattoo has put the PPP in greater discomfort (and as a result, disarray). Hostage to Wattoo’s vacillations, the Punjab PPP rank and file are dissuaded from outright revolt because of the vital PML (J) support (7 NA seats) that props up the Centre.
Losing his own traditional seat in the last elections, Wattoo could only scrape through by the barest of margins in a constituency gifted to him by the PPP. Without casting aspersion on the personality of this able but devious man, one must recognize that this is essentially a reign of the minority over the majority, not the stuff of democracy. Wattoo safely remains in power through a combination of bluff, spreading of political largesse and the “Wattoo shuffle” (a constant movement of the political feet denying anyone a fixed target). On the other hand, the President of PML (J), Mr (holier-than-thou) Hamid Nasir Chattha, symbolically denies any lust for power by refusing cabinet posts but remains blissfully comfortable in blatantly imposing his minority faction over the PPP’s real right to rule in the Punjab.
Thinking Positive
Almost all political pundits within and outside the country had predicted a major victory for the PPP over the PML(N) in the National Assembly elections followed by a complete rout in the Provincial Assemblies round a few days later. As a part of overall PPP strategy the first round knockout of Nawaz Sharif was necessary as they were apprehensive of a repeat performance circa 1988 when the Punjab remained a thorn for the PPP Federal Government. However, contrary to the soothsayer’s hopes (rather than any calculated analysis) the PML(N) made a surprisingly strong showing in the general elections, emerging with a slight edge in voting percentage over the PPP nationally but losing out in the commensurate overall tally of seats. All the fears of a “hung” Parliament seem to have come true.
For the first time since the inception of Pakistan in 1947, PML has fought an election as an independent political entity and not as the contrived creation and/or appendage of the Establishment. Nawaz Sharif has provided the PPP its first real democratic Opposition in 25 years. By any reckoning, this has been a phenomenal performance given Ms Benazir’s undeniable charisma, the PPP’s well organised campaign machine and a strong grassroots support among the electorate. On the other hand, the bifurcation of the PML into various factions pre-elections meant that the PML(N) started bereft of a campaign machine, an almost non-existent party organisation that was cobbled together by a bunch of amateur but dedicated Nawaz-loyalists combining with a smattering of experienced professionals. Creating order out of chaos, they were able to translate their enthusiasm into political potency. However, there were glaring shortcomings e.g. the initial euphoria on October 6 night when the sweep of the urban areas convinced the PML(N) that they were well on the way to an overwhelming majority but were later embarrassed by the rural returns and that of the Seraiki belt. On the other hand (the much vilified) Hussain Haqqani of the PPP PR and media team gave a professional performance by disseminating accurate figures on both nights and did his credibility a world of good. For PPP this was the second time they went to the polls with home ground advantage (the first being the 1977 polls) because despite the cosmetics being aired about transparency and fairplay, the Caretaker Administration seemed to be supportive of a PPP victory. However, to the lasting credit of the Army and the civil administration, except for an odd exception or two at higher levels, they generally and genuinely remained neutral. For the Army this has been their finest hour, they maintained a “hands off” policy that contributed to the psyche of free and fair elections, they also managed to maintain commendable peace and harmony throughout the country. While the COAS must take credit as the head of the institution, congratulations are in order all around down the pecking list. One must commend the excellent role played by ISPR in keeping the Army’s public image free from controversy, this time they have functioned with maturity as per their mandate.
The Task Ahead
Despite his worst inclinations (not to talk about designs), the President has continued to heap favours on Nawaz Sharif that add to his political mileage. After delivering his speech of April 17, the PM badly needed something like the ham-handed overkill of the April 18 Presidential Dissolution (along with Dismissal of the PM and his Cabinet for good effect) in order to be confirmed in the eyes of the masses as a genuine political leader of national stature. In a space of 24 hours (give or take a little) the President transformed Nawaz Sharif from what his worst detractors held him to be, as a slightly rebellious Establishment front man, to the status of an underdog in full fledged revolt. As the world knows, everyone loves an underdog especially one who has the courage to take on Goliath. April 18 made Nawaz Sharif independent of all the IOUs that had shackled him to the geriatric epitome of bureaucracy personified in the person of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and all that was wrong in this country because of it. If April 18 was not enough, the continued Ishaq-sponsored machinations post the May 26 Supreme Court verdict continued to shower blessings on Nawaz Sharif’s political career, it also rapidly evaporated the euphoria of victory and brought the Nawaz Sharif camp back to Mother Earth and political reality, survival in the quicksand of Pakistani politics was still around the corner. The President’s action set in motion a series of events that can only culminate in further benefits to the PM in the matter of governance of the country as it serves to clear the decks. The Dissolution of the Punjab and NWFP Assemblies could have been written by a Nawaz Sharif loyalist Script-writer, both events will further drive nails into the coffin of future Presidential interference. The best side-effect of all this were the public moves of rapprochement between the PM and Ms Bhutto on the floor of the House, a process that may still fall apart for any number of reasons, but given the groundswell of public goodwill and expectation it generated, will have repercussions for whoever is the recalcitrant party.
With the possibility that the Punjab Assembly will most likely be restored, the Wattoo-ising of Wattoo should take another three days or so. With his power base thus re-solidified, the PM should be able to negotiate with (and not take dictation from) the Opposition. It is always important for any genuine negotiations to be held without fear of coercion on either party, the results arrived at are much more sincere and lasting. Some of the more salient points of difference and possible compromise need to be evaluated in depth before discussions as they would effect the wide spectrum of the masses throughout Pakistan, the public good rather than the vested interest of any one political grouping must prevail.