Barbarians at the Gate?
Facing a very serious economic situation internally and beset by the proximity of one externally, Pakistan must be thankful that the rather creditable efforts of the present government as well as the Governor State Bank of Pakistan, has kept us from going under. Kudos are also in order for former President Farooq Leghari, for if he had lacked courage in sending the Bhutto regime packing in late 1996, we could never have survived Zardarinomics — every person in his pocket, every pocket his own — a few more weeks. In the bad economic environment of Asia, economic survival has taken some doing. We may also thank our lucky stars that George Soros probably considers it beneath his contempt to play around with our meagre foreign resources. As for financial analysts, they are no different than weather pundits, how many eulogizing the so-called “Asian Tigers” a year ago predicted the Asian financial crisis? Given that economic forecast, particularly with false or unreliable indicators, is risky business, given that the present global electronic environment where flight of capital takes seconds only is hardly conducive, one thing is very predictable, the leaders of Pakistan have to put in a seven-days-a-week, 24 hours-a-day superhuman effort to escape economic apocalypse. The present 9-to-5 hours-a-day six days-a-week syndrome is hardly conducive to economic amelioration of the masses. Lip-service with flourishes of the ZA Bhutto-type rhetoric will not do, deeds are much more appropriate to the times, as far pragmatic and as much related to the need as possible. A recent presentation to the PM in Zurich by a group of Pakistani financial experts based in the US (who came all the way to Zurich on their own time and expense) brilliantly identified the causes of Pakistan’s economic woes, they also suggested pragmatic remedial measures. Where they got stumped in was in the implementation of the proposals made, that is our greatest failing, a continuing lack of success in executing plans well-laid. And even the plans fall short of being revolutionary, to quote the PM “it will take a revolution, to take us out of this mess”. Mr PM, if the situation leads to anarchy, that may well-bring about a street revolution beyond the means of any government to contain.
A Bridge Called Confidence
With the death of Gen Ziaul Haq in August 1988, a decade plus of dictatorial rule came to an end. Before his death, the late President had dismissed the man handpicked by him to guide his version of partyless democracy, the “crime” of late Mr. Junejo had been to display signs of independence as Prime Minister. Gen Zia’s fears had been fed by the Establishment that had decided that Junejo was about to cross the fail-safe line of total control and needed to be cut to size. The enquiry into the Ojhri Camp disaster acted as the proverbial straw. Prominent advisors to Gen Zia were the Establishment figures Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Dr Mahbubul Haq, Roedad Khan, Ijlal Haider Zaidi, Mahmoud Haroon, etc. When the then VCOAS, Gen Aslam Beg, decided against the usual route to the Presidency and opted that the country go for the constitutional process, this was God-sent as it suited the Establishment and their chief, GIK, became President. With Ms Benazir Bhutto’s PPP running rampant politically, the IJI, the Islamic Democratic Front, was cobbled together around the ever available Pakistan Muslim League. PML leader Junejo, discarded unceremoniously only a few months ago, was now again resurrected as the pointman against a bigger threat. Ms Bhutto’s electoral momentum took her to Federal power but fell short of gaining the key Province of the Punjab. As a part of the package that elevated her to PM, Ms Bhutto was forced to abandon Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan as her Presidential candidate and swallow the GIK pill as the Establishment-dictated “consensus” candidate of both the major political groupings. As much as everyone would have us believe that this was “democracy”, the fact remained that it was an Establishment-contrived farce.
Ms Bhutto’s political demise was inherent from the first day of her first Prime Ministerial stint. Given that the PPP had been out of office for a long time, the Establishment policy was to allow enough rope to PPP to run berserk with respect to nepotism and corruption. Oxford and Harvard educated Ms Benazir was simply overwhelmed by the demands and trappings of third world office, exposing her severe limitations with respect to experience. Ms Benazir was also badly served by her close advisors, these stalwarts decided they were omnipotent and started to pick on the Armed Forces. By August 1990 the Establishment had the necessary strength (power flows through the barrel of a gun) to move against her.