General Selections
Very few leaders have faced the series of crises that Pervez Musharraf has in his nearly three years of governance. As absolute military leaders in Pakistan go, he has been a cut above the rest and given that he took the ultimate risk of allowing a free print media, till several weeks ago he has had very good Press. Even the electronic media, Pakistan TV being within strict government control, ARY Digital being patriotically supportive and even though Shaheen Foundation pulled out its money and material support of Indus Vision, it was immediately replaced by frontmen of vested interest, has been very very supportive. Before the Referendum Gen Musharraf was a very popular man, and even though he was clearly the winner by far, a suddenly hostile media “took the laurels from his brow and cast it into the dust”, with apologies for paraphrasing Churchill describing Lord Wavell after Rommel had delivered to the victor of Abyssinia and Eritria a series of stinging defeats in the Desert in the Second World War. As we wound down the 90 days to the October elections and the “natives become restless”, the rhetoric will get rougher. The President will have to have a very tough skin to bear this verbal and written onslaught, particularly when it is only partly deserved. He deserves to have aides who will deflect the attacks rather than pursue their own crass commercial interests.
Lt Gen Tanvir Naqvi is presently the subject of intense political and media vituperation for his proposals concerning the constitutional amendments. While one holds no brief for this theoretical genius with a gift of the gab, one must give him his due, in the circumstances availing in Pakistan over the past 50 years, a major part of the proposed charges are relevant and necessary. Gen Naqvi is not street smart otherwise he would have realized that framing the amendments was only a part of his job, his major task was to sell the package wholly or in parts to a very skeptical public stoked with misinformation by vested politicians determined to maintain the status quo. Because of tactical mistakes made in the run-up to the Referendum the print media became suddenly hostile, assuming for itself the cause of the masses. It is no use doing the right thing, one must be seen to be the right thing. Selling the government’s viewpoint is now Nisar Memon’s domain and he has taken up cudgels quite effectively, supported efficiently by Federal Secretary Anwar Mahmood, a consummate bureaucrat who has been close, as every bureaucrat should be, to every regime that he has served. There is a duality of responsibility here because of the role of Rashid Qureshi who as the military Cardinal really runs the government media and manipulated Javed Jabbar’s ouster. This weakness for being a prima donna lies at the very heart of the military regime, the penchant for self-projection even at the cost of the person he serves. Leaving aside self-interest through proxies, if Qureshi is really loyal to his boss he should ask for another appointment.
Return of the Undertakers
Caretaker PM Moeen Qureshi is on his annual “yatra” to Pakistan. On Friday last he spoke on “Pakistan and its economy in the global context” to a gathering in Karachi organized by “The Reformers”, the brainchild of one of the Caretaker Ministers of 1993, Mr Nisar Memon, former long-term Chief of IBM in Pakistan. This elite audience consisting of businessmen, technocrats, intellectuals, bureaucrats etc was carefully selected to get the maximum mileage from Moeen Qureshi’s thoughts to the Pakistan populace. His message of “doom and gloom” was well articulated, he spoke about the eminent collapse of Pakistan’s economy. Our man who lives in Washington (but will agree to live here either as President or PM) has been saying the same thing for some years now, and the inference is that it was only because of his three months Caretaking in 1993 that Pakistan’s economy has managed to survive this long. Moeen Qureshi pontificated a few “priorities” for the military administration, viz (1) long-term loans from world financial institutions at low interest rates (2) restoring investors confidence (3) law and order situation to be improved (4) administration to be strengthened and (5) a long-term poverty alleviation programme to be structured with help of IMF and World Bank. Well, I have news for Mr Moeen Qureshi, with some adjustment to substance and priority, and with all due respects, isn’t that what the military regime has been trying to do for the past year? And Shaukat Aziz as Finance Minister has done a reasonable job in stabilizing the economy, we may default on our debts but not for any fault of Shaukat. Moreover, the heavens will not fall in case of Pakistan default even though there may be wailing in the corridors of the IMF and the World Bank because of the deviation from their prepared script. As much as I have read history and about economies, one cannot come across a single instance where a nation that can feed itself has collapsed economically. Moreover, any child in Pakistan knows that we spend too much on defence, that same child also knows that even that is not enough (by far) to retain parity with the enormous increases in defence spending that India is presently engaged in. What Moeen Qureshi is asking us to do in sophisticated language is to roll over and play dead. He may be a super-salesman for “signing of the CTBT crowd”, disarming and playing second fiddle to India will take some selling to Pakistanis, especially those who live in Pakistan.
The Sahibaan Enigma
Speaking at his brother’s residence soon after arrival from the USA, former Caretaker PM, Moeen Qureshi said that keeping in view the political and economic challenges confronting the country as well as the internal and external problems all segments of the society should give up confrontation and evolve national consensus. MQ said that the law and order situation in Pakistan was deteriorating and until the problem was resolved the country could not develop. While declaring himself as “not a supporter of Martial Law” since democracy was restored in the country after a long struggle, MQ said that during general elections in the country he had insisted on the formation of a national government as according to the results of the elections, both the largest political parties of the country had won equal votes. The former PM said that as per democratic spirit an in-house change could be made in the country as a national government was the need of the time. During this Press Conference, he was flanked by the Minister for Information during his tenure, Mr. Nisar Memon, the long serving IBM Chief in Pakistan. Thankfully, other members of the American Business Council (ABC) and the Overseas Chamber of Commerce and Industry, who made up a fair segment of his Caretaker Cabinet, were not present as then it would look very much as the kick-off of a selection campaign by this expatriate Pakistani to become PM of another “national” government.
Political Detente
The simple arithmetic of the elections of the NA Speaker Tanvir Gilani (106 votes over 90 for Gohar Ayub Khan) means that Ms Bhutto will be elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan in the National Assembly today. While the PPP and its allies did get a slender majority in the October 6 NA elections, the support of independents, minority seats and others gives the PPP a comfortable working lead in Parliamentary terms over the PML(N). By the same yardstick PML(N)/ANP are expected to make a stable government in NWFP while squeaking past the post in Punjab where strongman Mian Shahbaz Sharif is the best PML(N) choice for CM in the circumstances. As the Nawaz pointman in earlier negotiations with Ms Benazir he does have a working relationship with her. Balochistan has its own peculiar political culture and it is expected that JWP will take the lead in making an ambivalent Government supported by either the PML(N) or PPP or even both. In Sindh, the PPP is poised to make a strong government but without the support of urban-based MQM it may not be stable as respects the law and order environment. The scenario outlined because of the elections has caused analysts and observers to refer to it as a “split mandate”, as a matter of fact that message by the electorate is the best thing to happen to Pakistan for a long, long time.
In 1988, the PPP made a strong Federal Government while the IJI made a comparable government in the Punjab. Their strength in their respective bastions meant that dialogue was shown the door in preference to acrimonious confrontation. Both the major political groupings proceeded to run riot with regard to malfeasance in the absence of the accountability factor that a strong in-House Opposition represents. In contrast, for the first time in the democratic history of the country no political grouping, except possibly in Sindh, has the absolute authority to ride roughshod over the other. In Sindh, the MQM’s overwhelming urban-based majority imposes its own inherent check and balance on PPP, Ms Benazir will rise in the esteem of the electorate if despite her absolute majority she displays political pragmatism by accommodating the MQM in the governance of Sindh. In the ultimate analysis, the common citizen will emerge as the greatest beneficiary as both the major political parties keep on vying for his/her attention rather than consign them to the dung-heap of benign neglect till the election process starts all over again. By voting for both political forces in substantial numbers, around 39-40% with a slight edge of over 750,000 votes for PML(N), the voters have sent a strong signal that instead of confrontation, political detente is the order of the day. By giving the balance 20% of the vote count to a virtual plethora of others (the swing vote in almost every Assembly), the voters have ensured that the substantial not-so-silent minority will be given pride of place in the attention of both the major political groupings. It is important to ensure that the minority vote does not become the voice of political blackmail, an acid test of the strength of character of our majority leaders in each Assembly.