Political Detente
The simple arithmetic of the elections of the NA Speaker Tanvir Gilani (106 votes over 90 for Gohar Ayub Khan) means that Ms Bhutto will be elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan in the National Assembly today. While the PPP and its allies did get a slender majority in the October 6 NA elections, the support of independents, minority seats and others gives the PPP a comfortable working lead in Parliamentary terms over the PML(N). By the same yardstick PML(N)/ANP are expected to make a stable government in NWFP while squeaking past the post in Punjab where strongman Mian Shahbaz Sharif is the best PML(N) choice for CM in the circumstances. As the Nawaz pointman in earlier negotiations with Ms Benazir he does have a working relationship with her. Balochistan has its own peculiar political culture and it is expected that JWP will take the lead in making an ambivalent Government supported by either the PML(N) or PPP or even both. In Sindh, the PPP is poised to make a strong government but without the support of urban-based MQM it may not be stable as respects the law and order environment. The scenario outlined because of the elections has caused analysts and observers to refer to it as a “split mandate”, as a matter of fact that message by the electorate is the best thing to happen to Pakistan for a long, long time.
In 1988, the PPP made a strong Federal Government while the IJI made a comparable government in the Punjab. Their strength in their respective bastions meant that dialogue was shown the door in preference to acrimonious confrontation. Both the major political groupings proceeded to run riot with regard to malfeasance in the absence of the accountability factor that a strong in-House Opposition represents. In contrast, for the first time in the democratic history of the country no political grouping, except possibly in Sindh, has the absolute authority to ride roughshod over the other. In Sindh, the MQM’s overwhelming urban-based majority imposes its own inherent check and balance on PPP, Ms Benazir will rise in the esteem of the electorate if despite her absolute majority she displays political pragmatism by accommodating the MQM in the governance of Sindh. In the ultimate analysis, the common citizen will emerge as the greatest beneficiary as both the major political parties keep on vying for his/her attention rather than consign them to the dung-heap of benign neglect till the election process starts all over again. By voting for both political forces in substantial numbers, around 39-40% with a slight edge of over 750,000 votes for PML(N), the voters have sent a strong signal that instead of confrontation, political detente is the order of the day. By giving the balance 20% of the vote count to a virtual plethora of others (the swing vote in almost every Assembly), the voters have ensured that the substantial not-so-silent minority will be given pride of place in the attention of both the major political groupings. It is important to ensure that the minority vote does not become the voice of political blackmail, an acid test of the strength of character of our majority leaders in each Assembly.
Good government comprises the day-to-day smooth running of administration but must also include reforms through a continuous legislative process to improve the life of the common man (and woman). In the daily routine of government, most incumbents lose sight of the fact that the public has voted them into office to take effective action on the socio-economic issues that effect them, mostly rising prices and availability of essentials as well as the efficacy of civic infrastructure like education, medical facilities, transportation, telecommunications, etc. The environment of accountability created by the Caretakers is more form than substance and our innovative legislators will doubtless find a way to get back to the norms of yesteryear in the premise that charity begins at home. Before the publication of the list of loan defaulters, plot allottees, etc we were in the dark about a lot of people and their source of wealth. The tax-payers list has added to that knowledge and provides an opportunity to the concerned citizens to provide information that can be used to discover more hidden wealth. It is of the greatest public interest that “Assets and Liabilities” data about our legislators be made an effective instrument by being released to the general public so that we can know what our elected representatives are worth (and what they may be hiding) as well as provide a check to any attempt to add to their wealth during their incumbency.
It is now common practice to assume that the government in power only favours those whom they count as their supporters and others cannot expect any priority for the solution of their problems unless they pay handsomely for the consideration thereof, that is if payment is acceptable in the first place. While one would be an optimist to assume that money (and/or favours) will not change hands in the time-honoured fashion, one would expect that the volume and/or opportunities would be considerably reduced in the current political environment. On the other hand, since the stakes are so high, the cost of getting anything done may go up in astronomical fashion.
With a slender majority in the NA Ms Benazir has to face a hostile Upper House. During her last stint as PM, the PPP’s legislative record was abysmal because of many reasons. This time around she has to seriously negotiate a working relationship with the Opposition in the NA and the Senate in order to keep on the legislative track. The establishment of a reciprocal relationship will mostly depend upon Nawaz Sharif, who emerges as a profound political winner in his own right. Almost single-handedly he has turned the PPP tide of 25 years and for the first time since 1947 made the Muslim League resurgent without Establishment support, in actual fact in the face of a barely concealed antagonistic Caretaker set-up. Nawaz Sharif’s PML(N) out-polled both the PPP and PML(J) combine in the actual counting by almost three-quarters of a million votes, an anomaly in translation to number of seats that has led to charges of “engineering”, an electronic possibility that has gained currency because of the presence of IBM computer-whiz (and GM IBM Pakistan) Nisar Memon in the Caretaker Cabinet. The US$64000 question is whether the computers were programmed to reverse results in certain key constituencies if the results were close or whether electronic interdiction (as anyone familiar with ECM will attest) took place of which the Election Commission and Army could not be aware of? This may be the stuff of nonsense but ask War Hero Raja Nadir Pervaiz who lost by 63 votes, had 1,200 votes in his favour declared invalid and is being denied recounting what he thinks.
Now that the public posturing of electioneering is over (and given that he is the PML(N) candidate for PM and not Jatoi in an effort to get the NDA and independent vote), Mian Nawaz Sharif must adopt a conciliatory attitude and congratulate the new PM on her assumption of office in the finest traditions of democracy in reciprocal manner to her gesture on his re-assumption of office in late June after winning the Supreme Court verdict. Similarly, it will be obligatory for the new PM to extend more than an olive branch for the greater good of Pakistan. A display of peevishness on either side would put the democratic clock back, probably irretrievably.
The year 1993 has been a year of great political turmoil. Given that the election of the President is still to come in November, the uncertainty will persist for some time. In such circumstances, the split-mandate can herald in political confrontation or political detente. For the sake of the poor masses suffering from “combat fatigue”, our leaders must attempt a compromise of sorts, a truce for a period of time and get on with the business of government. Instead of choosing the path of opposing each other for the sake of opposition they can sit down and conduct dialogue on issues to narrow down the differences. Instead of trying to destabilize each other they should discourage their supporters from setting off down the path of confrontation. Sardar Assef Ali was thought of as a big man in all senses of the word and one felt sorry at the manner he was treated on his defection from PML(N). However, his cynical words the other day on PTV about carrying out “accountability” were chilling in the manner it was said, leaving no doubt in anyone’s mind that vengeance would be his, whatever the cost to the country. With such passions keeping company with Ms Benazir (and one does not doubt also in the company of Mian Nawaz Sharif) what hope can one hold out for political detente?
Both Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif will have to rise above petty differences (and people) for the sake of Pakistan. Having outpolled her in the number of votes, Ms Benazir must accept that Mian Nawaz Sharif is seen as a leader of equal substance according to the electorate. As the Leader of the Opposition, Mian Nawaz Sharif has to accept the verdict of the NA seat count and acknowledge Ms Benazir’s right to be PM. Anyone who subscribes to democracy will support this viewpoint, those who have a vested interest in confrontation will not. The people of Pakistan have lived through a complete year of confusion, they now require a sustained political hiatus. They need their elected representatives to work for the good of Pakistan in a spirit of political detente and not waste their time in acrimony and contention.
Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.
Comments
No comments yet.
Leave a comment