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PPP Wins Battle, May Lose the War
In the National Assembly elections of Oct 6, 1993 the PPP with 86 seats got an edge of 14 seats over PML(N) with 72 seats. The failure to get a decisive knockout in the first round is catastrophic for the PPP given the percentage of votes Nawaz Sharif has managed to gain. For the first time in Pakistan’s history, after the Quaid had led the Muslim League in election victories pre-1947, the Old Party has made a decisive impact in Pakistan’s political life as a genuine political entity. Emerging from the clutches of the Establishment and machinations thereof, the Muslim League has broken the myth of invincibility that the PPP had inculcated over the years. It is most important to note that the PPP’s vote bank has remained secure at around 38-39% nationally with strong roots in all four Provinces.
Muslim League national vote percentage-wise was 40% with majority votes over PPP in Punjab (5%) and Sarhad (4%). It is now time to remove the (N) suffix from PML and acclaim Nawaz Sharif as the rightful heir of the Muslim League heritage. The Muslim Leaguers who were with Chattha should seriously think of either merging with the PPP or returning to the mainline ML fold. The lack of a clear majority for PPP can only translate at best into a weak Federal Government with the possibility of only one Provincial Government under its direct authority. Given the sorry history of Federal interference in Provincial affairs this could be the prescription that would be most advisable for Pakistan’s integrity and sovereignty. In any case the first crack at making the Federal Government rightfully belongs to PPP in the supreme interest of democracy in Pakistan, one hopes that this will come about.
D Minus 8 and Counting
Going into the final stretch, one is struck by the fact that while positive factors of the two major political groupings may be important for their success, the negative factors would be much more lethal for their failure. This is politics upside down instead of right side up but this is Pakistan 1993, that’s the way it is and that’s the way it’s going to be.
Ms Benazir remains a great crowd-puller and if the election gauges were to be calibrated on the volume of the crowds and the number of party flags, the PPP would be a sure thing at Ladbroke’s. However, the only thing that keeps betting shops like Ladbroke’s profitable is that people lose more often than winning. On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif’s performance has been extraordinary for a person whose previous record was largely believed to be propped up by Establishment support. Not only is he matching Ms Benazir crowd for crowd but he is the first non-Sindhi leader who has drawn a segment of support within Sindh during his repeated forays into the interior to deny PPP a complete sweep in the Province.
The Perception of Impartiality
To end the political impasse that was rapidly bringing the country to economic apocalypse as well as civil war conditions, the COAS Pakistan Army Gen Waheed brokered an agreement between the President and the PM that accepted the demand of the Opposition for the conduct of free and fair mid-term elections. A significant part of the unpublicised agreement was that the COAS became the guarantor of the terms accepted by all the sides. The former PM felt that as long as the President was able to carry out extra-constitutional interference in the day to day running of the country, fair elections were hardly possible. GIK and the Opposition reciprocated this mutual feeling of distrust as long as the former PM called the shots in the Federal Government. As the ultimate compromise it was agreed that both the President and the PM would step down in favour of a generally neutral regime. The Army’s role as guarantor would hopefully restrict the propensity of the various security agencies to influence the results in the manner that they would deem fit.
The choice of Moeenuddin Qureshi to head the Caretaker Regime was motivated out of a genuine need to have an impartial non-controversial but effective person responsible for the affairs of Pakistan in the interim period. That the Caretaker PM is a man of some international stature and known integrity as well as a world respected economist was an additional plus point. There are those who decry his lack of experience within Pakistan but in the present state of extreme polarisation where anybody who is anybody has got involved in one way or the other with one side or the other, one considers that particular “inexperience” to be a necessary virtue. Spelling out his first priority as the holding of free and fair elections in Pakistan, Moeen Qureshi gave out the sorry state of our economy as his second priority. This dual capability is a bonus for Pakistan. On a brief private visit to Washington for a medical check-up, the PM kept up a busy schedule of official engagements arranged at short notice, primarily including US Vice President Al Gore and the major international finance institutions, the World Bank and the IMF. Before leaving for the US, Mr. Moeen Qureshi laid the base for the concept of impartiality by inducting into Cabinet office such eminent persons as are generally considered to be without any party affiliations, both in the Federal and Provincial set-ups. With respect to his choice, to his credit there has been no criticism as yet. A number of subsequent steps need to be taken to ensure that the concept of neutrality remains paramount throughout the election process and the capacity of those who are past masters of subverting a neutral process to their nefarious designs is restrained.
The Summer of our Discontent
Two decades ago the unadulterated ambition of our then leaders overwhelmed the integrity of the most beautiful experiment in nationhood of its time, we have not seemed to learn anything from that sorry episode. We are now in the midst of the most serious political crisis since 1971. The rapidly degenerating state of our economy seems to get only cursory attention while our leaders pursue their own selfish agendas. The Army may yet get over its “reluctant suitor” status before the country goes down the drain (and there is nothing left to defend). After all there is a difference between restraint and inaction. Martial Law is not a solution but the influence that the Army can bring to bear on the politicians should not be held in abeyance till Doomsday. Quick solutions to the political maelstrom will not cause the rapid rejuvenation of our economic situation, this will be a long and painful process adversely affecting the common man placed downstream at the fag end of the economy. Since only a small percentage of our population is privileged to be uncommon, a vast majority are bound to face acute hardship.
In a state of transition, the economy is very vulnerable to external factors. While privatisation was initiated by Ms Benazir Bhutto’s PPP regime, it commenced in earnest due to the dynamism and drive of businessman PM Nawaz Sharif. Along with Deregulation, Disinvestment and Denationalisation, the Nawaz Sharif regime carried out a series of far-reaching liberalising reforms, removing straitjackets from the economy and raising the confidence of the business community. Acclaimed as a genuine politician only post-April 17, 1993, Nawaz Sharif has been impatient to rid the economy of artificially imposed shackles, removing it from the clutches of a bureaucracy corrupted to its very core. In order to kickstart the economy and an ingrained political inclination to achieve economic results within his tenure, he embarked on a series of extremely visible public sector projects in the field of communications, mainly motorways and telecommunications. Like Stephen Leacock’s hero, he seems to have jumped on his horse and galloped off in all directions, the PM should have paid more attention to prioritization. Funds have been hard to come by and credits have only added to the burgeoning national debt, debt servicing already reaching 35.5% of the available annual government revenues. The PM’s enthusiasm may be genuine and not wholly misplaced but financial managers normally tend to be conservative rather than dynamic, cautious rather than creative, they have been caught unawares and thus unready to cope with the demands for more and more funds. The Nawaz Sharif regime thus suffers from the public perception of haste and waste at the very core of its leadership. What was the use of taking back the VIP aircraft from PIA? Whenever it was required PIA could have made it available. This perception is most unfortunate as besides becoming the focus of public censuring, it calls into question the efficacy of perfectly sound plans for the betterment of the communications system in Pakistan. The Islamabad-Lahore Motorway is an excellent scheme but scandal arose in the manner of the hasty award to Daewoo without international tender. Recently the single tenderer for the Sheikhupura-DG Khan motorway tried a fait accompli in trying to persuade the PM into accepting its bid. Thankfully enthusiasm failed to get the better of good sense as it did in the case of Daewoo. Wise and mature leaders do not let themselves be carried away by the shenanigans of the unscrupulous.
Dissolution Again?
Towards the end of the Supreme Court hearings that led to the historic verdict of May 26, the Empire showed its hand regarding future course of action by coordinating a media offensive by the CMs of the Provinces against the PM. The Provinces followed this up by requesting the Honourable Supreme Court that they be allowed to become party to the petition being heard by the Provinces. At the fag end of the arguments, the Supreme Court allowed them to make their brief submissions against giving the Petitioner any relief but were obviously not impressed enough to affect its verdict. Having lost the Courtroom battle, the Empire shifted its battle lines to the Provinces, as events are unfolding, with consequences far more dangerous. If one were to do serious war gaming, the scenario would unfold like this, the dissolution of the PAs (and the on/off restoration process thereof) would be followed by the NA Budget Session. Forced to impose certain direct taxes in the Budget to meet the officially projected Rs 85 billion deficit (more in the region of Rs 110 billion) the Federal Government would face stiff opposition within the Assembly and this would flow into the streets. The Provincial Governments would stand back and let anarchy take hold. If the Federal Government used Rangers they would yell blue murder and civil war conditions would be created. The Army would have to be called in to restore order, the situation would then be ripe where the President would be satisfied that conditions are such that the Federal Government could no longer perform its duties and an Emergency would be declared, the jurisdiction of the judiciary with respect to fundamental rights would be suspended. The NA having passed the Budget, it would have done the same job a Queen does for any Empire, having produced a male heir it would have no further use for the Empire and would be dissolved again. All this may sound far fetched but given the legal and political footwork witnessed in the last two weeks, particularly in the Punjab, this is very much within the realm of a distinct possibility, desperate men never fear any consequences for society at large and nations in particular.
As much as the PM is to be commended for extending an olive branch to the Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, he failed in a crucial test of political sagacity, he should have also made moves to pacify the President. Given that Ghulam Ishaq Khan may not have reciprocated to any of his overtures, why work on the assumption that he would not? Whatever may be the political differences of the PM with the President, as long as he is the President he represents the unity of the Federation and he must be given due deference as becomes his position. One may not like him, that is no reason to show disrespect by eliminating the crucial and necessary dialogue between State and Government that is the essence of smooth governance. Political requirements may require that the Constitution be suitably amended to balance the powers equitably, that does not obviate respect for the Office that is the highest in the land according to the Constitution. Politics enjoins the art of compromise, the PM has far less differences with the President than Ms Bhutto has, even given their present cosy relationship. By not opening up communication channels to the old man on the hill, the PM has closed down an option that is very much available to the Leader of the Opposition to exploit to the PM’s detriment. It also gives an opportunity for self-seekers around the President to evolve a hard stance against the PM. These people will not allow this old man to rest in his twilight years. In defeat, Nawaz Sharif showed admirable defiance, in victory he must show extraordinary magnanimity. At the moment the President is in a corner fighting for his political life and he is fighting back in the ways he knows how to, unfortunately the no-holds barred stance on either side is seriously damaging the political and economic fabric of the Federation. Muslim tradition dictates that if an enemy lands up at your doorstep you cannot deny him succour or hospitality, for the sake of this country Nawaz Sharif must swallow his pride and land up at the Presidential doorstep. How can we know whether the old man on the hill really believes that forgiveness is divine unless this precept is really tested. The PM has people like Elahi Baksh Soomro, Sartaj Aziz, Malik Majid, etc with access to the President, to act as initiators and moderators of any dialogue. Why does he not use them?
The Task Ahead
Despite his worst inclinations (not to talk about designs), the President has continued to heap favours on Nawaz Sharif that add to his political mileage. After delivering his speech of April 17, the PM badly needed something like the ham-handed overkill of the April 18 Presidential Dissolution (along with Dismissal of the PM and his Cabinet for good effect) in order to be confirmed in the eyes of the masses as a genuine political leader of national stature. In a space of 24 hours (give or take a little) the President transformed Nawaz Sharif from what his worst detractors held him to be, as a slightly rebellious Establishment front man, to the status of an underdog in full fledged revolt. As the world knows, everyone loves an underdog especially one who has the courage to take on Goliath. April 18 made Nawaz Sharif independent of all the IOUs that had shackled him to the geriatric epitome of bureaucracy personified in the person of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and all that was wrong in this country because of it. If April 18 was not enough, the continued Ishaq-sponsored machinations post the May 26 Supreme Court verdict continued to shower blessings on Nawaz Sharif’s political career, it also rapidly evaporated the euphoria of victory and brought the Nawaz Sharif camp back to Mother Earth and political reality, survival in the quicksand of Pakistani politics was still around the corner. The President’s action set in motion a series of events that can only culminate in further benefits to the PM in the matter of governance of the country as it serves to clear the decks. The Dissolution of the Punjab and NWFP Assemblies could have been written by a Nawaz Sharif loyalist Script-writer, both events will further drive nails into the coffin of future Presidential interference. The best side-effect of all this were the public moves of rapprochement between the PM and Ms Bhutto on the floor of the House, a process that may still fall apart for any number of reasons, but given the groundswell of public goodwill and expectation it generated, will have repercussions for whoever is the recalcitrant party.
With the possibility that the Punjab Assembly will most likely be restored, the Wattoo-ising of Wattoo should take another three days or so. With his power base thus re-solidified, the PM should be able to negotiate with (and not take dictation from) the Opposition. It is always important for any genuine negotiations to be held without fear of coercion on either party, the results arrived at are much more sincere and lasting. Some of the more salient points of difference and possible compromise need to be evaluated in depth before discussions as they would effect the wide spectrum of the masses throughout Pakistan, the public good rather than the vested interest of any one political grouping must prevail.
Damage Control
Rip Van Winkle woke to a new world after sleeping for twenty years, this nation had to wait for 40 years since the Tamizuddin case to wake up from its extended slumber. The immediate feeling is that of euphoria, of complete freedom, the casting away of bureaucratic shackles that have suffocated this country for almost all its life-span. For the foreseeable future the rule of law seems to have been restored but the subsequent dissolution of the Punjab Provincial Assembly has shown that the potential of the Evil Empire for mayhem remains alive though somewhat diminished. For the first time in four decades, the actual rulers of this country, bureaucracy and its “Republican” political allies (mainly from among the landed class) are under pressure from real democracy, not their stunted, guided version of it. The main prop in the persistence of their bluff has been the support of a usually gullible military, in the absence of that support they have been badly exposed as paper tigers at best, at worst as connivers and manipulators. The Nawaz Sharif regime does not have time to gloat over the return of fortune, they have to shift into high gear to rescue the nation from the flat spin that we are now in economically, politically and in the realm of foreign affairs. Mention must be made of the memorable photograph of the Honourable Justices walking out of the Supreme Court Chamber after delivering their historic verdict, the shortest man by far, Chief Justice Mr. Nasim Hassan Shah, seemed to be tallest among a group of men who had good reason to be walking tall. In the individual context, the stoic forbearance of Justice Shafiur Rahman in the face of a profound personal tragedy will remain a shining example in the putting of duty before self.
The humiliated and angry President was persuaded by those he called into the Presidential Palace in the immediate aftermath of the verdict that discretion rather than drastic, desperate means was called for. The short terse release from the Presidential Palace accepting the Supreme Court verdict left unsaid the fact that a trial balloon to gauge the reaction of the men in uniform had been shot down by the Army. In the first instance by a rather vehement (toned down later) disassociation from a seemingly innocent Press release of the Ministry of Defence blatantly intended to influence the Supreme Court and reinforce perception among the masses that the Army was less than neutral in the President’s favour. When this bluff was corrected, the resultant backlash virtually demolished the psychological perception about the President’s source of strength. On the evening of Judgement Day the military hierarchy indicated that it was no longer ready to be a Praetorian Guard, with that the President’s gamble cashing in on his most recent IOUs had failed.
With Bated Breath!
The eloquence of Khalid Anwar and the pronounced filibuster of Aziz Munshi notwithstanding, the merit of the Petitioners case in the Supreme Court against the Presidential Dissolution Order of April 18, 1993 will probably hinge on one crucial finding, did the President have the Constitutional authority to dissolve the National Assembly once it had been called into Session by the Speaker given the fact that once the National Assembly was so-called by the Speaker only he could prorogue it? The extraordinary argument by the Respondent’s Counsel that the President does not hear radio or see TV and so he did not know about the Speaker’s summoning of the NA lends weight to the conviction that even the Respondents concede this point to the Petitioner. Logic would dictate that once the fact of the Speaker’s earlier calling of the National Assembly became known to the President later, his Order should have been subsequently withdrawn. Given this argument as a core of the entire case, one speculates that on this one point alone, the National Assembly will certainly be restored by the Supreme Court.
While his mind has been functioning as sharp as a razor, Aziz Munshi’s heart was quite apparently not into a vigorous Presentation of the Respondent’s arguments. It is demeaning to see a brilliant lawyer searching to establish credibility in the face of the obvious, his arguments did not carry the weight of his own conviction. He seemed to be besieged, fighting a losing battle, probably the best he has been hoping for is a finding by the Honourable Justices of the Supreme Court that Nawaz Sharif may have to seek a fresh vote of confidence from the Members of the National Assembly before he can resume his interrupted stint as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. One can only guess that the in-camera proceedings would carry weight but would not sway the Court. It may be pure speculation but a positive verdict happens to be generally the perception of the intelligentsia and the masses, a street-smart population is almost never wrong. For over four decades they have despaired of being the masters of their own destiny, their so-called public servants having usurped that right and turned them into slaves. Now they see a pronounced ray of hope, any attempt to try and extinguish this by means other than Constitutional would amount to sacrilege, of the ethical and moral kind.
Mission: Survival
The wolves are at the nation’s door in a pack and our house is burning from within. Instead of strengthening the nation from within and without we are engaged in an internecine quarrel that feeds the fire, does not quell it, that invites external interference, does not deter it. One does not need to look far for consequences, the plight of Muslims at the hands of majority Hindus in India to the East, at the hands of the Indian Occupation Forces in Kashmir to the North East and at the hands of fellow Muslims to the Northwest in Afghanistan, all serving as gory examples in graphic detail of the apocalypse staring us in the face.
With the deepest respects for the Supreme Court, whatever decision is given, the winners would use their incumbency to “guarantee” victory in the general elections. This will not satisfy the requirements of lasting electoral peace, may indeed further polarize the political crisis and create a Catch-22 situation. The major political parties would be helpless as long as power remains firmly in the hands of the Provincial Governments which are not really representative, which is why all the parties other than Chatta’s PML are asking for dissolution of the Provincial Assemblies and the appointing of Caretaker Provincial Governments on the lines of the Centre. Which is probably why PPP is talking about dissolution in the same breath as about a possible election alliance with Chatta’s PML!
Some Days in May
The indications are that the Caretaker Government has weathered the immediate financial storm that arose out of the Presidential dismissal of the Nawaz Sharif regime and the dissolution of the National Assembly. After a staggering first week when banks had to import US dollars to meet the rush of depositor withdrawals, the run has been stemmed. Except for those panic-stricken in the wake of the make-up of the Caretaker Government, the rest took notice of the repeated pronouncements of the Caretaker Finance Minister that they would continue the liberal policies of the Nawaz Sharif government. While decrying the Singer, this amounted to support for the Nawaz Sharif Song of the three D’s, Deregulation, Disinvestment and Denationalisation. This was a pragmatic acceptance of the obvious, that the policies annunciated by Nawaz Sharif would lead to the economic betterment of the nation and his far-reaching liberal reforms were starting to permeate into society on a broad front.
The fact that the economy has remained stable after surviving such a shock and has not continued to erode is because of the resilience of Pakistan’s economy, primarily because of the parallel economy that still persists in elongevity and secondarily due to the building up of investor confidence in institutions rather than individuals. As such, Nawaz Sharif, in a perverse way, has helped to stabilise the present Caretaker government, they are reaping the benefits of his courage and far-sightedness in unshackling the hold of the bureaucracy on the economy. What has been done in the way of reforms cannot be immediately undone. Market forces, rather than government instructions, have created an in-built resilience. Recognition of the obvious by the Caretaker Government meant that they shied away from being labelled as Undertakers of the economy, what could have happened if the situation had been handled less adroitly is open to speculation.