The Task Ahead
Despite his worst inclinations (not to talk about designs), the President has continued to heap favours on Nawaz Sharif that add to his political mileage. After delivering his speech of April 17, the PM badly needed something like the ham-handed overkill of the April 18 Presidential Dissolution (along with Dismissal of the PM and his Cabinet for good effect) in order to be confirmed in the eyes of the masses as a genuine political leader of national stature. In a space of 24 hours (give or take a little) the President transformed Nawaz Sharif from what his worst detractors held him to be, as a slightly rebellious Establishment front man, to the status of an underdog in full fledged revolt. As the world knows, everyone loves an underdog especially one who has the courage to take on Goliath. April 18 made Nawaz Sharif independent of all the IOUs that had shackled him to the geriatric epitome of bureaucracy personified in the person of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and all that was wrong in this country because of it. If April 18 was not enough, the continued Ishaq-sponsored machinations post the May 26 Supreme Court verdict continued to shower blessings on Nawaz Sharif’s political career, it also rapidly evaporated the euphoria of victory and brought the Nawaz Sharif camp back to Mother Earth and political reality, survival in the quicksand of Pakistani politics was still around the corner. The President’s action set in motion a series of events that can only culminate in further benefits to the PM in the matter of governance of the country as it serves to clear the decks. The Dissolution of the Punjab and NWFP Assemblies could have been written by a Nawaz Sharif loyalist Script-writer, both events will further drive nails into the coffin of future Presidential interference. The best side-effect of all this were the public moves of rapprochement between the PM and Ms Bhutto on the floor of the House, a process that may still fall apart for any number of reasons, but given the groundswell of public goodwill and expectation it generated, will have repercussions for whoever is the recalcitrant party.
With the possibility that the Punjab Assembly will most likely be restored, the Wattoo-ising of Wattoo should take another three days or so. With his power base thus re-solidified, the PM should be able to negotiate with (and not take dictation from) the Opposition. It is always important for any genuine negotiations to be held without fear of coercion on either party, the results arrived at are much more sincere and lasting. Some of the more salient points of difference and possible compromise need to be evaluated in depth before discussions as they would effect the wide spectrum of the masses throughout Pakistan, the public good rather than the vested interest of any one political grouping must prevail.
Ms Benazir Bhutto has spelt out early general elections as one of her prime demands. To her credit she has refrained from making it a do-or-die issue and has asked the Government to suggest alternate proposals in lieu that could be a matter of consideration. In all fairness, the PPP had good reason to feel done out of quite a few seats in the 1990 elections. Though some of the alleged rigging did take place in the Punjab, most of the shenanigans happened in Sindh where Jam Sadiq Ali masterminded PPP’s loss in their power base. Given all that, Nawaz Sharif would still have had the necessary seats to make a Government in the Centre in 1990. The question of elections must hinge around when it is to be held and who is to conduct the polls. Immediate elections should be out of the question, the country has been too badly polarized in many different ways by the Establishment-inspired machinations of the past few months. At the same time the election machinery is seen to be badly corrupted and credibility in the entire process is lacking. Three possible time-windows for elections are available in Nawaz Sharif’s term of office till 1995, Oct 93-Jan 94, Oct 94-Jan 95 and Oct-Nov 95.
Oct 93-Jan 94 may be too close and Oct 95-Dec 95 is probably too late, working on Ms Bhutto’s four year theory as the PM’s possible tenure in the future, Oct 94-Jan 95 would seem to be the safest bet. However, keeping in view the present Nawaz Sharif momentum, he may decide that it would be much more politically expedient to go for early elections in Jan 94, post the retirement of the President. It is not too far in the future and removes us from the aura of crisis prevailing this year. The first item of the agenda should be a complete revamping of the election machinery starting with the selection of a consensus candidate for Chief Election Commissioner along with his Provincial counterparts. Measures to check rigging, including a progressive announcement of results on TV and radio as they come in as was done in 1970, must be agreed to and implemented. How the Army can help the avoidance of rigging can be discussed later at the implementation stage in consultation with the newly installed guarantors of democracy in Pakistan, the Supreme Court and the Army.
The PPP was certainly done out of Sindh Province in 1990, in a reversal of alliances, some of the beneficiaries of the alleged rigging are now allied to the PPP, while those who are now against Nawaz Sharif benefited hugely from the tainted process. The representatives of the urban areas, the MQM, resigned wholesale in the wake of the Army action and have been badly fragmented since. Sindh has a most non-representative legislature and as such a Government without electoral credibility at the moment, propped up because the Army is maintaining law and order in both the urban and rural areas. While the PPP has genuine grievances, it would not be fair to simply hand over the Province to them. The MQM has a significant role to play, their return to the democratic process sans militancy must also be debated between the PML and PPP. The criminal-minded must be identified and the saner elements must not be discriminated against. This should not be confined to the MQM alone. The MQM’s important place under the Pakistani sun should not be denied. It is clear that irresponsible activities of certain senior intelligence officers have been identified, they have brought the Army into disrepute by their less than fair methods and dubious logic. Almost all of them have been transferred, posting is no substitute for punishment. With elections stipulated in the period Dec 93-Jan 94, there would be enough time for the Army action to be wound up in Sindh. If the PPP should win, which it probably will in the rural areas, then the possible government in Sindh Province would have to be formed with the MQM representatives of urban areas, it could be the fore-runner of a positive rancour free Centre-Province relationship in a Federation. It should be a true test of the rapprochement between the major political groupings on national issues.
One thing emerged during the Balakh Sher tenure, there is a unanimity of views in Pakistan about economic issues, even his worst detractors had to agree with the thrust of Nawaz Sharif’s economic reforms. The Presidential Dissolution had given a severe shock to international investor confidence, the credibility of promises made needs to be restored. In continuing with the thrust of the Pakistani appeal to international finance to invest in the country, a politically bi-partisan approach will enhance the content and firm up the appeal. As such Opposition inter-action with the Government in the Pakistan Investment Board is a must, the modalities can be a subject for detailed negotiations. The privatisation process must be made more transparent, the Privatisation Commission must be headed by a consensus candidate instead of the newly re-appointed Senator Lt Gen (Retd) Saeed Qadir. The Commission must have members nominated by the Opposition. The Government must seriously study the phased privatisation of huge Corporations or entities like PIA, very much like the phased disinvestment of shares done by the PPP. In the meantime, Corporations like PIA need a complete overhaul, AVM Umar is an honest, hardworking soul but as the recent spate of PIA promotions/appointments (some of them officials suspended for corruption for many years) during the Caretaker period have shown, he is much too eager to appease power centres within and outside PIA, in fact seems to have become a virtual hostage to certain vested interests. Unless the Government takes evasive action now, a possible Rs 2000 million-loss killer punch is headed their way in little over a year’s time, who is going to pay for the tab? In any case the Government will have to take the blame. The Opposition must be brought into the accountability process of public sector corporations and enterprises in a meaningful manner.
The old song “sixteen tons and what do you get, another day old and deeper in debt” seems to have been tailor-made for Pakistan politically, it goes on to talk about “the left fist of iron and the other one of steel, if the left one won’t get you, the right one will!” Among other major problems Pakistan is in the midst of a debt crisis, while we have never defaulted some sort of a moratorium is necessary to ease the burden. At the same time, the nuclear and drug issues have been overtaken by the US threat to declare us a “terrorist state”. One should not be under any illusion that the three are not inexorably inter-linked. There is no better qualified person to counter this orchestrated campaign against Pakistan than the Leader of the Opposition, Ms Bhutto, her charismatic appeal in the western media cannot be underrated. A start along the lines was made before the present crisis erupted by making her the Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly. One feels sure that given more authority she will respond to the national call to do her bounden duty to the nation. The foreign affairs situation has become alarming because of the Indo-Israeli nexus particularly on the issue of Kashmir and the purported Pakistani Islamic Bomb.
As the negotiators of the major political groupings gather to debate the points of contention, many other issues will come on the table. There must be included in the agenda a method to increase the electorate’s percentage representation in a democracy, the severe curtailment of the role of bureaucracy, the enhancement of the authority of local government, the prioritisation of motorways, the dual track for railways, etc but nothing is more important than the role of President Ishaq till he retires in December this year. If he was not so prone to various machinations, the best would be to simply ignore him. In the circumstances, unless some sort of cast-iron guarantees are given by the two powerful guarantors of democracy in Pakistan, the Army and the Supreme Court, that the President would refrain from doing anything further to damage the fabric of the Federation, he must be encouraged by all quarters to do the Honourable Thing and resign. In case he does not do so and persists with trying to impose executive authority by the help of malafide actions, within or outside the parameters of the Constitution, then it may be time for the PML and PPP to think about the ultimate denouement, impeachment.
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