Mission: Survival
The wolves are at the nation’s door in a pack and our house is burning from within. Instead of strengthening the nation from within and without we are engaged in an internecine quarrel that feeds the fire, does not quell it, that invites external interference, does not deter it. One does not need to look far for consequences, the plight of Muslims at the hands of majority Hindus in India to the East, at the hands of the Indian Occupation Forces in Kashmir to the North East and at the hands of fellow Muslims to the Northwest in Afghanistan, all serving as gory examples in graphic detail of the apocalypse staring us in the face.
With the deepest respects for the Supreme Court, whatever decision is given, the winners would use their incumbency to “guarantee” victory in the general elections. This will not satisfy the requirements of lasting electoral peace, may indeed further polarize the political crisis and create a Catch-22 situation. The major political parties would be helpless as long as power remains firmly in the hands of the Provincial Governments which are not really representative, which is why all the parties other than Chatta’s PML are asking for dissolution of the Provincial Assemblies and the appointing of Caretaker Provincial Governments on the lines of the Centre. Which is probably why PPP is talking about dissolution in the same breath as about a possible election alliance with Chatta’s PML!
The first exercise of adult franchise in Sindh for over a year was a farce, less than 5% (in some constituencies less than 2%) of the electorate exercised their privilege, at least two winning candidates for seats to the Provincial Assembly got less than a 1,000 votes. Even given the extenuating circumstances of the death of MQM moderate Azeem Tariq, the lack of electoral activity reflects on a loss of confidence in the system. While Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League may have made some inroads in urban and rural Sindh post-April 18, Sindh rural is PPP territory while the urban areas remain MQM strongholds. The present Provincial Government will ensure that most of the results in the NA elections are likely to be a contrived combination of independents and dissident PPP stalwarts in the rural areas and MQM Haqeeqis in the urban areas, will this really be representative of the free exercise of adult franchise? As a genuine national party, the PPP draws Sindh into the national mainstream, can we afford to ignore their mandate and cast it by the wayside? Democracy’s purpose as a reflection of the peoples voice is being negated and frustrated to the extent of harming the nation’s integrity.
Balochistan has its own peculiar electoral ambience based on local tribal and religious groupings in the rural areas with national mainstream political parties having some foothold in the urban areas. At the moment (and for the foreseeable future) there is a disparate coalition, headed presently by Taj Mohammad Jamali, a PPP stalwart turned PML person. Whatever government is in power, Balochistan will have more of the same, except that marginal seats will go to the designated choice of the incumbents, the present Provincial Government being supportive of whoever are the incumbents in Islamabad.
In the Frontier, Mir Afzal Khan is another former PPP leader who came over to the PML, retaining his links with his former party. His government presently survives on the basis of PPP support in the Provincial Assembly though he has been able to hold off the in-Party challenge to his CM-ship. In free and fair elections, the major rivals would be the combine of Nawaz Sharif’s PML with ANP and the PPP, with Mir Afzal bringing along the Chatta PML on his coattails. No amount of sincere intentions will remove the doubt that with the present incumbents in power, “favourable” election results will be ensured.
The Wattoo-ising of the Punjab cannot last. Ms Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are the two real electoral contenders for the heart and soul of the Province. Already significant cracks have appeared in the huge majority of legislators that backed Wattoo in ousting Ghulam Haider Wyne. As much as Ms Benazir made the mistake in 1988-1990 of trying to rule over her Sindh Province power base by proxy, Nawaz Sharif learnt nothing from that political mistake and fostered his nominee on the Punjab. The bankrupt notion in both cases was to allow real rulers from behind the scenes to control the strings. The revolt of the Punjab legislators in shifting their loyalties was not so much against Nawaz Sharif as against Wyne whom they despised. Even in the unlikely event of Nawaz Sharif Wattoo-ising Wattoo, whoever is in power in the Punjab Government, whether the Provincial Assembly is dissolved or not, is going to influence the vote (or at least its “counting”). Neither Nawaz Sharif’s or Ms Benazir’s followers have shown no great inclination of electoral sainthood in the past and they are certainly not in the business of committing political Hari-kari by being “correct”. In the presence of Wattoo, what should be an interesting and straight fight between the Nawaz Sharif PML and Bhutto’s PPP will turn into a stage-managed farce of a Wattoo majority in support of Hamid Nasir Chatta’s PML.
In short order, the Supreme Court decision may be one of substance and principle but we are in for a sustained period of political turmoil post-July 14 because whoever are the incumbents will not lose and the losers will not accept the results, citing electoral fraud and the influence of the incumbency. Even if the Army were to conduct (as different from “supervising” it) the polls, the incumbents have the capacity to bring undue influence to bear through the civil administration, an integral part of our sorry electoral history. Rightly or wrongly, legally or otherwise, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan’s incumbency during Elections has become controversial. In a Parliamentary form of government, the President must be above party politics, unfortunately Ghulam Ishaq Khan is seen to be party to all the politics. Even Ms Benazir has hinted darkly about a “third force” conspiring to keep her and Nawaz Sharif out of power (and she took pains to exclude the Army from the short list). If therefore we hold elections under the present incumbents or even if Nawaz Sharif returns as PM, the elections are going to be tainted (and protested). We risk compromising the credibility of the Army in mandating them to supervise the polls and drawing them into the political process without safeguarding the erosion of the image. As it is despite professing neutrality, the Army is seen to be less than neutral. One must clearly and unambiguously state here that the option of martial law will be a disaster for Pakistan. The most benign form of martial law is no substitute for the worst form of democracy, given the accountability factor. The imposition of martial law detracts from the Army’s mission and in the current world atmosphere post-Cold War the nation loses its credibility in the comity of nations with the loss of democracy. The tragedy is that those who secretly conspire to facilitate the march of boots almost always scorn the truth, forgetting that they are invariably left exposed by the march of history.
The Selection and Maintenance of Aim, the survival of Pakistan, demands that we operate strictly on the logical Doctrine of Necessity. The first objective of such a “Necessity” is to ensure free and fair elections. That will ensure the second objective, a credible Government with enough time and opportunity to implement its policies, leading to the final objective, economic emancipation of the people. The Constitution limits the President as being Head of State in a Parliamentary Government, not Head of Government, a habit acquired by President Ishaq as Gen Ziaul Haq’s de-facto PM over almost 8 years. In all fairness he may well try sincerely to restrain himself from interference of any kind in Government but it would not be believed as his credibility with the masses is at an extremely low level. Instead of the extreme step of resigning, the President should take leave of absence for six months, that would be in the highest traditions of putting country over one’s self. Rather than the Chairman Senate, Mr Wasim Sajjad, who will certainly be seen as politically partisan and as such unacceptable for the purpose, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court should become Acting President. In any case the Senate should also be dissolved making the matter infructuous. The Chief Justices of the Provincial High Courts should take over as Acting Governors after taking due leaves of absence from their respective courts and handing over to the next in seniority. Chief Justices of Pakistan have been Acting President in the past, a mechanism to constitutionally satisfy this process will have to be contrived.
The Doctrine of Necessity dictates that the Supreme Court take suo moto action to formulate and implement a workable mechanism. The National Assembly (if restored should only be for symbolic purposes to show the legality or otherwise of the Presidential action) and the Provincial Assemblies must be dissolved. The Caretaker PM, the CMs and all cabinet members at the Federal and Provincial level must be men of stature, integrity and known political neutrality. From the Acting President downwards all should take an oath not to be aspirant for any selectoral seat for five years. A small Political Advisory Council (PAC) to the Acting President consisting of the chiefs of the IJI, PDA, NDA, the IJM, the MQM and the JI must also be sworn in, their main task would be to have a veto in the selection of any individual aforementioned at the Federal or Provincial level so that no controversy arises later as to their neutrality. On the unanimous recommendations of the PAC, the Chief Election Commissioner and his Provincial counterparts must be appointed. The Federal and Provincial Budgets must be worked out for the period of 01 Jul – 31 Dec 93 by the Interim Government.
The General Elections should be held in either the months of October or November with enough time given to political parties to select viable candidates. Results must be declared and toted up as they arrive from the polling stations as was done in 1970 elections, generally considered to be the most free and fair in the country’s history. Once the new governments have been sworn in, the Acting President must supervise the elections to the Senate followed by that of a new President within 15 to 20 days. This achieved, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and his Provincial counterparts must return to their respective seats. Post-facto approval of the Supreme Court’s six moto action necessary by the elected Assemblies and the Senate. Mr Ghulam Ishaq Khan should then serve out his full term till December as President unless of course he is re-elected, when he has every right to continue. In any case, a smooth democratic and gentlemanly transition at every level is the utmost essence for the democratic survival of this nation.
This is not a novel suggestion or even an experiment, a living precedence exists having been successfully implemented recently in Bangladesh where democracy only survived because the usual charges of electoral rigging did not undercut the credibility of the subsequent Government. The Doctrine of Necessity dictates that the Honourable Judges of the Supreme Court adopt this as the only logical course. Mission Impossible? Not if there is a will among men of substance and conscience!
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