With Bated Breath!
The eloquence of Khalid Anwar and the pronounced filibuster of Aziz Munshi notwithstanding, the merit of the Petitioners case in the Supreme Court against the Presidential Dissolution Order of April 18, 1993 will probably hinge on one crucial finding, did the President have the Constitutional authority to dissolve the National Assembly once it had been called into Session by the Speaker given the fact that once the National Assembly was so-called by the Speaker only he could prorogue it? The extraordinary argument by the Respondent’s Counsel that the President does not hear radio or see TV and so he did not know about the Speaker’s summoning of the NA lends weight to the conviction that even the Respondents concede this point to the Petitioner. Logic would dictate that once the fact of the Speaker’s earlier calling of the National Assembly became known to the President later, his Order should have been subsequently withdrawn. Given this argument as a core of the entire case, one speculates that on this one point alone, the National Assembly will certainly be restored by the Supreme Court.
While his mind has been functioning as sharp as a razor, Aziz Munshi’s heart was quite apparently not into a vigorous Presentation of the Respondent’s arguments. It is demeaning to see a brilliant lawyer searching to establish credibility in the face of the obvious, his arguments did not carry the weight of his own conviction. He seemed to be besieged, fighting a losing battle, probably the best he has been hoping for is a finding by the Honourable Justices of the Supreme Court that Nawaz Sharif may have to seek a fresh vote of confidence from the Members of the National Assembly before he can resume his interrupted stint as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. One can only guess that the in-camera proceedings would carry weight but would not sway the Court. It may be pure speculation but a positive verdict happens to be generally the perception of the intelligentsia and the masses, a street-smart population is almost never wrong. For over four decades they have despaired of being the masters of their own destiny, their so-called public servants having usurped that right and turned them into slaves. Now they see a pronounced ray of hope, any attempt to try and extinguish this by means other than Constitutional would amount to sacrilege, of the ethical and moral kind.
One event of great national importance passed without much public notice, the attempt to drag the volatile situation into anarchy and thus provide justification for emergency rule. A deliberate ethnic colour of Pakhtoon-Punjabi confrontation was given to the Presidential action by the inner coterie comprising Pakhtoons in the Presidential Palace. In an outstanding gesture of wisdom and maturity, the Awami National Party (ANP) moved to quickly defuse the situation by publicly giving Nawaz Sharif full and unqualified support in his hour of need thus averting a potential ethnic catastrophe that would have split the country asunder. As much as the ANP (and its predecessor) has been mercilessly vilified over the years with respect to their commitment to the national integrity, there is no doubt that this has been their finest hour in support of it. Kudos are also due to Nawaz Sharif for having forged this strong mutual loyalty even though their respective ideologies may be quite diverse from each other.
One extremely significant observation of Chief Justice Nasim Hassan Shah was that frequent elections are not a panacea for all the national ills and it may further complicate the situation (as it has in the past leading to the break-up of the country in 1971 and imposition of Martial Law in 1977). General elections at this time would be extremely precarious for this country for any number of reasons. In the volatile, polarized atmosphere that is presently obtaining, the forces of disorder would move quickly to create conditions of anarchy. As much as it would be tempting for Nawaz Sharif to cash in on his present political momentum by going for General Elections he must keep in mind the downside of this option and the supreme national interest. Demons may be let loose by the elections process, particularly pertaining to ethnicity and separatism, that may not go back into the proverbial bottle. Nawaz Sharif must rise to the occasion for the sake of peace and harmony choosing national over personal benefit even though he may be vilified in the process for delaying elections till the political volatility subsides.
All indications are that if the National Assembly is restored, Nawaz Sharif will certainly win a vote of confidence. The Presidential action of April 18 made him into an underdog with plenty of mass sympathy, giving him an unstoppable political momentum. This foundation of mass support has been because of a coalition of individuals and groupings evoking the type of public adulation that propelled Zulfikar Ali Bhutto into national contention in 1970 and swept the old guard of “Republican” politicians into temporary oblivion. Politicians are extremely sensitive about which side their bread is buttered, they can clearly see the normally silent vast majority being quite vocal about Nawaz Sharif. Those who have not burnt their bridges will switch sides without as much as the bat of any eyelash. Those who cannot easily finance an election campaign will also find it expedient to also go along with the Nawaz Sharif bandwagon. For the present, Nawaz Sharif has the “big mo” (the big momentum), can he sustain it?
One can understand the compulsions that caused Ms Benazir and the PPP to deviate from political principles, the pursuit of power has corrupted much greater mortals. Divorced from power and with no hope of success in sight barely two months ago, the best she could hope for was a cleavage between the President and the PM. Having suffered at the hands of Establishment, she chose not to buck but to support the Establishment for the time being (if you can’t fight them, join them ploy) in the hope of a General Elections returning PPP to power, fully aware that the Establishment were using the PPP not out of any great love and admiration but out of their own necessity in their hour of need. Within days the Establishment had resiled from its stand on the dissolution of the Provincial Assemblies, literally leaving the PPP holding the bag but able to play “a cat and mouse” game. Everybody and his uncle knows that as long as the Provincial Governments can call the shots, elections can never be fair. They will do exactly as per the desire of their masters in Islamabad, never so apparent as when the Provinces belatedly tried to become party to the case before the Supreme Court and simultaneously launched a media blitz against Nawaz Sharif on the very counts they had been eulogising Nawaz Sharif for the past two years. At worst this stance expressed their rank ingratitude for the many favours done to them individually by the previous Federal Government, at best it was childish. If the National Assembly is restored, the initiative will have passed to Nawaz Sharif who will certainly be tempted to exploit his advantage. Having been vindicated by the Courts, Nawaz Sharif will be at a historical political crossroads, if he turns away from a reconciliation of sorts with the PPP, whatever his reservations and whatever their present role, he will miss a historic opportunity to clip the feathers of the Establishment once and for all. He cannot do this in isolation, it must be done with the full support of the PPP, not only for both their sakes but for the people of Pakistan. Feelers for reconciliation of sorts should have gone out already, if not the Nawaz Sharif camp is not as politically sophisticated or astute as they seem.
The greatest temptation before Nawaz Sharif would be to press for the immediate resignation of President Ghulam Ishaq Khan or even to go for impeachment. Having been vindicated, Nawaz Sharif would be well advised not be vindictive. In victory, he must show magnanimity. One does not expect him to reach out with open arms and embrace the old man, one does also not expect that he will humiliate the President of Pakistan, whatever his shortcomings. Mr. Ishaq Khan has a few months to serve out his full term, let him pass into oblivion with the verdict of history as a great weight on his shoulders. For a man who ushered in democracy in 1988, this belated botched attempt to destroy it barely five years later would be critically recorded for posterity. As one well knows posterity gives short shrift to such people. It is important that the Constitutional parameters are strictly observed and Nawaz Sharif restrain his more enthusiastic supporters from vilifying the President publicly. He should reserve his anger for the inner coterie, perhaps even gainfully employing them in preparing References against themselves! At the same time, while the general perception seems to be that the rank and file of the Army was totally opposed to the April 18 action, they held their peace out of discipline and of respect for the Presidential office. One does not expect that the military hierarchy will appreciate a public humiliation of the President of Pakistan.
Successive elected governments have been accused of attempting to interfere with the inner working of the Army and have come to grief when given that perception the Army has thrown its weight behind the “Constitutional” actions of their Supreme Commander, right or wrong. The rules of the game must allow for the least possible inter-action with the Army. The only way to ensure that the Army stays out of politics is not to encourage anyone to approach anyone in Government except through the conduit of the COAS and vice versa, maybe even on a social basis, though it may be nigh impossible in practice. Misunderstandings and misconceptions of the past could have been avoided by following this golden principle, leave the Army alone and in return they will leave you alone. This may not be democratically correct, it is pragmatically conducive for the sustenance of democracy in the third world.
One month in the Opposition may not be enough to mature political inclinations but this has been a necessary exercise for Nawaz Sharif, it separated friend from foe, sympathisers from sycophants. He will have a better appreciation for those who have stood by him in this greatest political crisis of his life. Nawaz Sharif’s perception that everyone around him loves him must have suffered a shock, the unkindest cut of all being the Wattoos of this world. On the other hand he must also have been stunned and elevated by the support he got from where he least expected any. Such an experience is extremely necessary for the maturing of the Prime Minister, it will only enhance his abilities in ensuring a capable Government in the future. Nawaz Sharif must also take into account some of the more glaring discrepancies in his tenure, some got public airing and need not have occurred in the first place. A measure of self-accountability is called for. Enthusiasm must be tempered with discretion, particularly in the economic field, particularly in the implementation of privatisation. Unfortunately those who were implementing the policy were less than transparent. Over the past one month, Nawaz Sharif has caught the imagination of the populace who have vociferously given him their trust through the length and breadth of the country. The nation will anxiously look forward to his redeeming that trust, depending, of course, on the expected positive decision of the Honourable Supreme Court.
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