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A Political Compromise Formula
A couple of weeks ago, the Leader of the Opposition, former PM Mian Nawaz Sharif, had unveiled a comprehensive policy package to overcome the growing political crisis. The policy package of 9 points was made conditional upon 7 additional steps. Very briefly the package envisages (1) guarantee for elected Assemblies to complete their 5 years term with the results of the general elections binding on all parties and that no movement against the government be launched (2) independent members to join a political party prior to taking oath as Assembly members (3) for a period of 10 years no vote of confidence against the PM (4) powers vested in one individual that infringe upon sovereignty of Parliament be removed (5) women’s seat in Parliament be restored (6) procedure for appointments in judiciary be reformed (7) mode of participation of Leader of Opposition in national affairs be defined (8) constitutional guarantees be provided for conducting free and fair elections and (9) to eliminate corruption and misuse of authority, a sovereign institution be set up. While there may be some legal and procedural debate about circumscribing the powers of Assembly members to launch a vote of confidence against a PM for a period of 10 years, most of these proposals, except for binding the legislators against a “no confidence” motion which prima-facie would lead to a political dictatorship, are sensible prima-facie and the Bhutto government could theoretically give a short “OK” to the package in principle before sitting down to thrash out details that need elaboration.
The problem arises with the preliminary demands of the Leader of the Opposition, viz. (1) an election schedule be announced after which both President and PM should resign (2) the NA should not be dissolved so that constitutional amendments envisaged aforementioned can be passed (3) a caretaker PM be elected from the present Assembly by consensus of the two major parties so that he (or she) can make arrangements for conducting fresh elections (4) both political parties should hold dialogue under the Caretaker PM in order to formulate the new constitutional amendments (5) the caretaker President in consultations with the two major parties appoint non-partisan, non-controversial Governors (6) upon passing of the Constitutional amendments the Caretaker PM should dissolve the National Assembly and Governors, on the advice of the Caretaker President should dissolve the Provincial Assemblies, under the new constitutional arrangement, the Chief Election Commissioner should conduct fresh election with 90 days with the help of the Caretaker National and Provincial governments. One does not have to be a clairvoyant to come to the surmise that the Bhutto government will deliver a short emphatic “NO” to the aforementioned and gird its loins to meet the challenge in the streets, violently if need be. While the Opposition had been successful in bringing their protests out into the streets, the end results have fallen far short of shaking the Ms Benazir Government, what to talk about dislodging the regime.
‘Teen Sukhi Roti’?
If anything, the year 1996 will be remembered in Pakistan for the maximum rise in prices of essentials during any one single period in the nation’s history. Never before have the people of this country been subjected to such economic pressure in their daily lives as in the past three years. A galloping inflation seems to be on the verge of running wild, in essence we are only five miles from economic midnight. That the government’s economic handlers have been a disaster is no more a moot point, what is of concern is that they will probably escape accountability for criminal mismanagement of the economy. If we can hold a person who does not know driving to be culpable of murder for causing an accident leading to death, why cannot we charge-sheet those in charge of the economy for bringing it to virtual demise? Punitive action must also be made mandatory for these technocrats who have been active collaborators in helping those in ultimate power in the government loot the nation till at will.
Countdown (All Over) Again?
An expatriate Pakistani friend of ours rang up from the US recently to enquire whether it was safe to come home on leave to Pakistan as he had it on good authority that there would be trouble come September. Sad and frustrating though it was to hear bad news travelling so fast so far, it was hardly prophetic. Being immunized by the daily casualty figures of the MQM (A) – MQM (H) internecine warfare in Karachi, now further supplemented by the ever increasing Fiqah Jafria – SSP strife as representative of the collapsing social detente all over the country, one wonders what worse one could expect? The announcement by the Leader of the Opposition, Mian Nawaz Sharif, on Aug 14 in Karachi (repeated again in Islamabad on Aug 18) that he was hell-bent on bringing the government down, with the resignation of the Opposition (mainly PML (N) and ANP) Senators and MNAs from the Senate and NA Committees as a first step in demanding that the President and PM resign by Sept 11 or face a mass movement thereafter, one can hardly blame anyone for being pessimistic about the worsening security environment in Pakistan, both internally and externally. With obvious and automatic government reaction, the situation could escalate and the present bloodletting would be a Sunday school picnic in comparison to the bloodbath that is likely to ensue. A stage may well come that even if the Army steps in, they could not stem the slide into anarchy.
Any citizen dispassionately and deeply concerned about the present deteriorating economic, political and social climate, can hardly call the Opposition leader’s threat as fair but then in politics (as in war) nothing seems to be fair in Pakistan, there being extenuating circumstances that give some truth to his stubbornness. Ousted by a combination of guile and selfish interest, driven into a corner very much like had happened to Ms. Benazir, Mian Sahib in his turn in the cold, seems to be resolved that Ms Benazir must be repaid in the same coin. However, unlike Mian Nawaz Sharif, Ms Benazir does not have a hostile but a sympathetic President to contend with and since Gen Babar has “put the Army back in its place and they (the Army) do what the Government tells them to do”, quote and unquote, therefore (at least theoretically) no restless uniformed soldiers to contend with, given that we accept at face value such sweeping rhetoric. Having literally clawed their way back to power, it is highly unlikely that the President and/or the PM would oblige Mian Nawaz Sharif and go the resignation route he was forced to in July 93 in the “supreme interest of the country”. Double standards and separate yardsticks apply, almost in the same manner as one would fail to recognise an elephant just because he (or she) is wearing dark glasses or accept a person rapidly becoming one of the world’s leading billionaires without ostensibly doing any business, at least in the traditional sense of commerce.
Has the 60-day Clock Started Ticking?
The Supreme Court decision on May 26 last year signalled the beginning of the end of the “Empire”. It restored Mian Nawaz Sharif as PM of the Federation and seemed to signal to an excited population that for all practical purposes the machinations of backroom politics (selections) would give way in the future to a genuine representation (elections) of the people at the helm of national affairs. By this token both major political parties would seem to benefit, they had youthful leaders who aroused universal adulation, this was reflected in the near equal October 1993 vote. However, the Empire was not yet quite finished and even while conducting a deliberate retreat, it manoeuvred new alliances (1) ensuring that Mian Nawaz Sharif would not acquire the power that democracy bestows on the elected and (2) the Empire helped Ms Benazir to come to power even though the vote was too close to call and in that process acquired enough IUOs from her to make the going tough whenever she was faced with a political crunch. Because the powers-that-be had contrived to confine his Federal authority to the perimeters of Islamabad and to avoid being frustrated in exercising his Constitutional parameters, which would invoke civil war conditions, Mian Nawaz Sharif quit on July 18, 1993. CMs Mir Afzal Khan (in NWFP), Wattoo (in Punjab), Magsi (in Balochistan) and Muzaffar Shah (in Sindh) were in open defiance of Federal rule. Less than a year later, it would be an understatement to state that the PPP Government in NWFP is shaky at best, Wattoo in Punjab takes advice from everybody but does not listen to anybody, the Government in Sindh is in a state of paralysis because of the PPP-MQM rural-urban divide and Magsi in Balochistan remains very much an independent soul. For Constitutional purists, the Provincial “Autonomy” being presently exercised may not be a bad thing by itself, for a nation increasingly at odds internally on any number of issues, the Centre cannot afford to lose its pre-eminence, given the example of fragmentation of unions along ethnic lines as seen to great detriment in Eastern Europe and former USSR.
Character and Leadership
One of the lasting impressions of the 20th century was former President De Klerk conceding victory of Nelson Mandela’s ANC when barely 50% of the votes had been counted in the South African elections. While the ANC victory was a foregone conclusion, the only doubt being whether they would manage a two-thirds majority, the grace with which De Klerk accepted defeat was a great moment for this world, a peaceful breaking off the strangulating chains of Apartheid that had shackled South Africa’s black majority for 300 years. This moment of defeat brought into focus the character qualities of this outstanding leader, an occasion he thus managed to turn into a victory of sorts. An amazing period culminated yesterday with the formal inauguration of Nelson Mandela as South Africa’s first Black President. In victory, Nelson Mandela was not to be out done by De Klerk, he was magnanimous, expressing deep satisfaction that he was privileged to work with such a great leader as De Klerk and there could never be any finality in the negotiation of terms with friends.
The Morality of Floor Crossing
The fundamental unit of any democracy is the individual voter. In voting for any candidate, the primary concern of the literate voter is usually the message the candidate is promising the electorate followed by the personality of the candidate. In countries where ignorance has a preponderance over literacy, it is usually the other way around giving truth to the GK Chesterton saying, “Democracy means government by the uneducated, while aristocracy means government by the badly uneducated”. Populist leaders on the pattern of late Z.A. Bhutto usually manage to make a useful mix of their personalities and their message as combined contributory factors for their electability. Bhutto’s campaign slogan, “Roti, Kapra aur Makan” was as much the theme song of his pledges as was the force of his personality. In theory, therefore, the individual candidate should be voted on the strength of his own attributes in preference to Party considerations, this is confirmed by the evidence of the voting pattern where candidates in various constituencies have to face voters having differing preferences. In contrast to preference due to his (or her) personality, in third world countries voters prefer a straight Party line based on their inclination towards a Party leader (and promises made). In the case of independents, they are voted in on individual preferences rather than any ideological Party line and as such there is no moralizing about the pattern of their vote which would be based on their personal inclination. To give one example of a Party having sway over individual personalities, the MQM swept the elections in the urban areas of Sindh in 1988 on a slate of virtually faceless candidates but both the PPP and PML relied on a combination of the strength of the individual candidates as much as voter preference for their respective Parties, the Party remaining synonymous with Ms Benazir’s leadership in the case of PPP. In 1988, 1990 and in 1993, Ms Benazir’s political charisma contributed to the individual’s victory, particularly in Sindh. The same phenomenon became true of Mian Nawaz Sharif in 1993.
The Return of MQ Prime Minister-in-Waiting?
Former Caretaker PM Moeen Qureshi, flew into Pakistan in the early hours of April 14, 1994, almost 6 months to the day after he handed over power to the elected PM, Ms Benazir Bhutto. For those addicted to conspiracy theories, his visit seems to have been synchronized with that of US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott as well as carefully orchestrated to invite attention. It raises a pertinent question, what is MQ doing here at this time? For the Ms Benazir regime, this is certainly not a happy period. Given that a very bad precedent had been set in July 1993 for future Constitutional sleight-of-hands by forcing out an elected PM who commanded a substantial Parliamentary majority, speculation is rife that MQ is here to personally gauge the situation and if the political environment is conducive for a “national” government, indicate to the powers-that-be his availability to be of service to Pakistan in taking our chestnuts out of the ever-spreading quagmire. Unlike last time, when his credentials were only that of an international technocrat and he was an unknown quantity to the public-at-large in the field of governing third world countries, MQ’s Curriculum Vitae (CV) is now much more credible for any concerted sales effort by vested interests. Whether anyone likes it or not, there are many in this country who believe that an interim period of national government is necessary and for them MQ remains a very distinct possibility as a PM in-waiting. It is also true that no political government can survive a nuclear “rollback”, at least publicly, MQ has no such problem in delivering.
Less than 180 days after MQ handed over the reins to Ms Benazir, Pakistan is in much deeper trouble economically, politically, socially and externally than when he took over from Mian Nawaz Sharif. Some of Pakistan’s problems were inherited by Ms Benazir as they were inherited by Mian Nawaz Sharif before her. To cast a broad brush in apportioning blame on PPP alone would not be fair, however on one important count Ms Benazir’s PPP surpasses Mian Nawaz Sharif’s PML (N) by miles, most of her problems are either self-created or occasioned out of designed neglect. Caretaker PM Moeen Qureshi stemmed the rot that arose out of the civilian coup that had paralysed the Federal Government. By the time he left the country was on its way to a more or less stable economic condition with hopes for building adequate foreign exchange reserves. The present situation may not be one of extreme economic apprehension despite the fact that the price of atta is slowly edging past the reach of the common urbanite. However, it is nowhere as rosy as the government’s rhetoric presents. On paper, the country’s foreign exchange reserves has gone up to US$ 1.9 billion, unfortunately it seems the same bureaucrats who served Mian Nawaz Sharif “loyally” do not seem to be informing the PM that almost US$ 1.5 billion of these so-called “Reserves” are short term borrowings by different government and semi-government corporations. To test MQ’s intellectual honesty, one could well ask this technocrat what is his analysis of the state of country’s present foreign exchange reserves?
The Last Hurrah
Someone should mark 4 Nov 93 as a red letter day in the country’s democratic history. Ms Benazir, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, stood her ground on two points of relentless pressure, viz. (1) from her mother with respect to the arrest of her brother, Murtaza Bhutto, as soon as he stepped on Pakistan soil and (2) the return of GIK to demand support for the Presidential elections on the basis of what he thought to be an encashable IOU. One can be crass and say that she took the cue from Mian Nawaz Sharif who, in his maiden speech as Leader of the Opposition, encouraged her not to succumb to blackmail by smaller parties, independents and what have you (comprising the Establishment) but one should not take credit away from where credit is due, after all it is she who is in the PM’s hot seat with something to lose. For the record, it is the second time this year, a PM of Pakistan has stood his/her ground, “even to the peril of his/her throne”, that is an auspicious occasion for democracy in Pakistan against any scale.
Murtaza Bhutto kept the people of Pakistan guessing about his arrival the whole of Wednesday 3 Nov. Since he is charged with heinous crimes not only against the State but against a virtual plethora of individual Pakistanis who have died (and have been wounded and maimed) due to assassinations, bombs and other violent means at the hands of a terrorist organisation known as Al-Zulfikar, his entry into Pakistan should interest a lot of people, politics or otherwise. After all, he has been indicted many times by the print media (on the basis of confirmed intelligence reports) that he, having been aggrieved at the demise of his late father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, had engaged in what he terms as “a genuine movement to overturn dictatorship” but that happens to be behaviour what the State calls anti-State. So we have a contradiction whether the individual is right and all that the intelligence agencies have been claiming is wrong or the individual is what he is labelled to be. However, the bigger paradox arises if the pro-Indian RAW label does not stick to Murtaza, in that case a whole generation of our intelligence hierarchy have been lying through their teeth. On the contrary, if they feel that they have been speaking the truth, then it will become a test of character of various individuals, whether they have the in-built strength and courage to stand for the truth in the face of losing their careers, Murtaza being the brother of the PM. At least, Murtaza has a redeeming feature, knowing that he faced certain arrest and maybe long incarceration, he has had the guts to stand up for his convictions. Not many people have that special courage to face what could turn out to be a fight for his life.
The Consensus Factor
Two weeks into Ms. Benazir’s formation of the Federal Government, the political truce seems to be holding except for occasional sniping by over-zealous supporters of either side. This has been possible because of the remarkable transformation in the attitude of the leaders of both the major political groupings in contrast to both 1988 and 1990. The post-election moves seem to confirm that both the political groupings do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past. The Federal Government usually has the initiative with respect to bad faith, under critical cynosure the restraint exercised by the PPP across a broad front has been praiseworthy. Contrary to expectations their manner (or mannerisms) do not evoke any reproach, in return the PML(N), in keeping with Mian Nawaz Sharif’s excellent maiden speech as Leader of the Opposition, has reciprocated in good faith. It may not exactly be a “love-fest” as yet, at least sanity prevails and that is why there is peace on our part of Earth.
This peace is likely to be tested in the contest for President, the process of which started on Sunday last with the filing of nomination papers by various candidates. There is a good deal of uncertainty prevailing because of the lack of a clear majority by either side in electoral votes, the PPP-PML(J) combine has 171 electoral votes while the PML(N)-ANP alliance commands 170 electoral votes. With the JWP, BNM(M), NPP, PQP and most of the Minorities supporting the PPP, their count goes upto by 40 to 211 electoral votes. With another 22 confirmed votes of independents, the PPP-led alliance comes tantalisingly close to an outright victory (235 votes) by having 233 electoral votes.
Woe Betide Us — Planet Lollywood?
The American Movie-Star Sylvester Stallone (along with a few other superstars) runs his restaurant PLANET HOLLYWOOD far better than we have been running our economy, which exercise is more akin to living in a fantasy world of figures, most of them fudged to fool everyone and his uncle, Uncle Michel Camdessus of the IMF among them. If we thought last year’s growth rate of 4.6% was bad enough, compare it to the 3.1% for this year. The macro-economic situation remains under tremendous pressure because of a number of deep-rooted structural failures as well as policy weaknesses. Economic performance has been short of targets for some years, the pressures on prices have continued unabated, fiscal deficit have remained stubbornly high and balance of payments deficit have been on the increase as a percentage of the GDP. Even last year’s growth rate of 4.6% was attributable more to divine nature than anything else, a bumper cotton crop and increases in the production of a number of minor crops. Really scary was the slump in manufacturing, small scale manufacturing registered 8% plus to offset the huge decrease of 1.25% in large scale manufacturing, a negative growth. The major pressures originated in the high budget deficit of 6.3% of the GDP, balance of payments deficit in excess of 7% and the alarming increase in prices plus of 13%. To put it very bluntly the state of the economy is abominable despite all our efforts at getting additional resources and some real progress in controlling expenditures. The challenges before our economic managers are very serious, the ability to meet these challenges depends upon identifying the root cause of the economic imbalance, that remains the substantially large fiscal deficit. Government revenues in last year’s Budget, in particular tax revenues, are insignificant in relation to the GDP despite all the additional taxation efforts. The success of Mr Sartaj Aziz’s proposals made on Friday evening depends not upon rhetoric alone but on reciprocity by the business community to the liberal concessions and on strict implementation of the reduced taxation measures. Unless we can increase the numbers in our tax net and get those who are already in the tax net to pay their actual dues, we will remain economically adrift searching for friendly shores who will disburse easy loans.