A Political Compromise Formula
A couple of weeks ago, the Leader of the Opposition, former PM Mian Nawaz Sharif, had unveiled a comprehensive policy package to overcome the growing political crisis. The policy package of 9 points was made conditional upon 7 additional steps. Very briefly the package envisages (1) guarantee for elected Assemblies to complete their 5 years term with the results of the general elections binding on all parties and that no movement against the government be launched (2) independent members to join a political party prior to taking oath as Assembly members (3) for a period of 10 years no vote of confidence against the PM (4) powers vested in one individual that infringe upon sovereignty of Parliament be removed (5) women’s seat in Parliament be restored (6) procedure for appointments in judiciary be reformed (7) mode of participation of Leader of Opposition in national affairs be defined (8) constitutional guarantees be provided for conducting free and fair elections and (9) to eliminate corruption and misuse of authority, a sovereign institution be set up. While there may be some legal and procedural debate about circumscribing the powers of Assembly members to launch a vote of confidence against a PM for a period of 10 years, most of these proposals, except for binding the legislators against a “no confidence” motion which prima-facie would lead to a political dictatorship, are sensible prima-facie and the Bhutto government could theoretically give a short “OK” to the package in principle before sitting down to thrash out details that need elaboration.
The problem arises with the preliminary demands of the Leader of the Opposition, viz. (1) an election schedule be announced after which both President and PM should resign (2) the NA should not be dissolved so that constitutional amendments envisaged aforementioned can be passed (3) a caretaker PM be elected from the present Assembly by consensus of the two major parties so that he (or she) can make arrangements for conducting fresh elections (4) both political parties should hold dialogue under the Caretaker PM in order to formulate the new constitutional amendments (5) the caretaker President in consultations with the two major parties appoint non-partisan, non-controversial Governors (6) upon passing of the Constitutional amendments the Caretaker PM should dissolve the National Assembly and Governors, on the advice of the Caretaker President should dissolve the Provincial Assemblies, under the new constitutional arrangement, the Chief Election Commissioner should conduct fresh election with 90 days with the help of the Caretaker National and Provincial governments. One does not have to be a clairvoyant to come to the surmise that the Bhutto government will deliver a short emphatic “NO” to the aforementioned and gird its loins to meet the challenge in the streets, violently if need be. While the Opposition had been successful in bringing their protests out into the streets, the end results have fallen far short of shaking the Ms Benazir Government, what to talk about dislodging the regime.
With all due respects, everyone seems to ignore the fact that the basic problem of governance in Pakistan can be focussed on one single factor, the paucity of quality and commitment in our Assembly members. Unless some basic election reforms are attempted all policy packages, as sincere as they may be, will come to nothing. The sad fact of life is that whether it be the present Bhutto government or the previous Mian Nawaz Sharif regime, their constituent Assembly persons were people of straw, for the most part not representative of the people that elected them. We are living a farce if we think we are living in a democracy. The “first past the post” system ensures that fully 70-80% of our MNAs and MPAs get voted into power on the strength of 20-25% of the votes cast. Since the voting percentage is around 50%, this really means that a majority of our MNAs and MPAs reach the Assemblies on the strength of 10-12% of the electorate’s vote. This is possible very easily on the strength of Biradri, caste, denomination, etc minorities, mixed with infusions of money it ensures unrepresentative Assemblies. A vast majority of the populace, almost 88-90% in any constituency, may not like their so-called representatives, yet they are straitjacketed into a system that falsely accepts this farce as a “democracy”. Unless we can have a run-off election, i.e. if a candidate does not get 50% in the first round, the first two candidates getting the maximum votes must be pitted against each to obtain a clear-cut winner. The reason why a better part of the electorate stays home is because of the frustration in the knowledge that a small compact minority group supporting an individual is enough to get a person elected despite the approbation of the “great silent majority”. Taking this train of thought further down the road, a minority religion or a minority sect can conceivably band together in the present system to keep the majority out of power. The only way to stop the domination of special interest groups is to enlarge the majority electing a representative.
The other reform is to do away with the indirect elections to the Senate and to the Presidency. The present system invites corruption and has ended up completely corrupting the process of democracy. Why do our people close our eyes to the fact that most of the aspirants for the Senate and to the Presidency have to rely on votes that are purchasable? True democracy envisages that the President (whose minimum qualification for candidacy may be that he or she is a member of one of the Assemblies) and the Senate must be elected on the basis of direct exercise of adult franchise.
Given that Ms Bhutto may not be inclined to suffer the same indignity that befell Mian Nawaz Sharif, when he was obliged to step down as PM despite having won a near unanimous judgment by the Supreme Court and having an overwhelming majority in the NA, what is the alternative to the continuing political show down ? While she is not in any immediate danger, so was Mian Nawaz Sharif in November 1992. Very much like Mian Nawaz Sharif did in the Communications sector, Ms Bhutto has won critical points in attracting substantial investments in the energy sector. Her Special Assistant, Shahid Hassan Khan, and Secretary Water and Power, Salman Faruqi, have literally taken her edict to “let a hundred flowers bloom” and are engaged, quite successfully, in making the desert of Pakistan’s economy bloom, at least in investor perception. Her priority to energise the economy is fundamentally correct but in almost all other sectors she is in deep political trouble because of the presence of the corrupt and/or the inept. If it had not been for her information whiz kid Hussain Haqqani, the public perception of her regime would have been worse than it is. Of particular concern is the rapid decline of the political atmosphere to a stage where it is possible that all the hard work she has put in to attract investment may become infructuous, the incoming money may take wings. The flight of capital due to domestic turmoil will be an unmitigated disaster to the economy and a tragedy for the people of Pakistan. Instead of relying on the rock-solid status of the Presidency as a mainstay, she is further hamstrung by a tainted incumbent. Despite attempts at whitening the dirt of Mehran’s money, the DG Khan stink will not go away.
The last demand of Mian Nawaz Sharif involves the induction of a Caretaker PM, to be elected by the NA by consensus. Instead of semantics let us face the facts, Bhutto is an elected PM by a significant majority of the NA, however her mandate in the Provinces is doubtful. However, even in Sindh where she has a clear majority, her CM has no answers for the urban majority representation and is basically propped up by the Army’s presence, increasingly becoming restive at the naked face of corruption and maladministration. Bhutto’s problems are not of her making as much as that of her immediate family in various permutations and combinations, therein lies a history of corruption, nepotism, influence peddling, etc that is increasingly frustrating to those who admire her potential as an international charismatic figure with sound management skills, if she is left alone to do good by her country, case in point the Shahid Hassan Khan – Salman Faruqi duo combination exploding open the energy sector.
Everyone conveniently forgets to talk about the Army’s role, knowing well that it is the Army that will ultimately have to call the shots, whether the Army likes it or not. As the timing becomes critical to appointing a new Chairman JCS, rumours had been deliberately let afloat that Gen Waheed would be upgraded and a new COAS, presumably pliable to PPP’s needs, would be appointed. GOP has strongly denied this through the Ministry of Defence but coincidentally the Army has been put under international cynosure (read “pressure”) where a number of motivated interests that are inimical to Pakistan seem to converge with certain individual ambitions. It seems the blatant manipulations of one unscrupulous impatient aspirant has resulted in a number of planted stories damaging to the Army appearing in a methodical, calculated manner. It seems that the end justifies the means, whatever be the damage to the Army as an institution that the man has aspirations to lead. Fortunately for the Army as an institution one cannot reverse with intrigues the wave of professional promotions and appointments made over the past year. It is best for such gentlemen to “leave the Army alone” and go back into their holes that they normally hide in. In a country like Pakistan where the Army makes up almost 90% of the bulk of the Armed Forces, it is incongruous to appoint a Chairman JCS from any other service but the Army. The Chairman JCS is an important post, it must not be denigrated to the level of an innocuous slot. While one has great respect for the other Services, their leaders are not equipped to deal with the overwhelming land battle envisaged with India as an enemy. Anything other than the Chairman JCS being an army man will be a perpetuation of the nonsense that does not give this post the authority it must have in modern warfare. While an exercise must be conducted to raise the authority and role of the Chairman JCS, as a “one-time exercise” in order to ensure that a correct person becomes the Chairman JCS, let the present Chairman JCS be given an extension for one year. Thereafter the choice of Chairman JCS must be made on merit and not on a “golfing and hunting partner” basis.
To come back to a solution to the political imbroglio, let’s try and suggest a compromise solution to reinforce Mian Nawaz Sharif’s policy package, viz. (1) confidence-building measures be put into place by both the sides, primarily by refraining from further mud-slinging (2) President Farooq Leghari announces an election schedule a year or so down the road, between Oct 95 to March 96, on the advice of the PM Ms Benazir, (3) The National Assembly by consensus agrees to (a) make Ms Benazir as Caretaker PM for the period (b) Ms Benazir advises the President to dissolve the Provincial Assemblies with neutral Governors and Caretaker CMs being appointed in consultation with the Opposition (c) The National Assembly amends the laws according to an agreed policy package but also providing for election reforms meant to have direct elections to the Presidency and the Senate in the following schedule (i) the National Assembly Elections (ii) the Provincial Assembly elections followed within a month by the (iii) the Senate elections and (iv) the elections to the Office of the President. Lastly (v) elect by consensus a man of integrity belonging to neither major political party to head the Federal Anti-Corruption Committee for a fixed tenure with power of Supreme Court Judge to adjudicate cases, suo motu if need be.
Ms Benazir’s answer to Mian Nawaz Sharif’s package has to be reasonable, similarly Mian Sahib must not insist on doing to the President and PM what was done to GIK and himself. Two Constitutional wrongs will not make one right but a comprehensive political formula that is good for the country may be the only pragmatic solution.
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