Countdown (All Over) Again?
An expatriate Pakistani friend of ours rang up from the US recently to enquire whether it was safe to come home on leave to Pakistan as he had it on good authority that there would be trouble come September. Sad and frustrating though it was to hear bad news travelling so fast so far, it was hardly prophetic. Being immunized by the daily casualty figures of the MQM (A) – MQM (H) internecine warfare in Karachi, now further supplemented by the ever increasing Fiqah Jafria – SSP strife as representative of the collapsing social detente all over the country, one wonders what worse one could expect? The announcement by the Leader of the Opposition, Mian Nawaz Sharif, on Aug 14 in Karachi (repeated again in Islamabad on Aug 18) that he was hell-bent on bringing the government down, with the resignation of the Opposition (mainly PML (N) and ANP) Senators and MNAs from the Senate and NA Committees as a first step in demanding that the President and PM resign by Sept 11 or face a mass movement thereafter, one can hardly blame anyone for being pessimistic about the worsening security environment in Pakistan, both internally and externally. With obvious and automatic government reaction, the situation could escalate and the present bloodletting would be a Sunday school picnic in comparison to the bloodbath that is likely to ensue. A stage may well come that even if the Army steps in, they could not stem the slide into anarchy.
Any citizen dispassionately and deeply concerned about the present deteriorating economic, political and social climate, can hardly call the Opposition leader’s threat as fair but then in politics (as in war) nothing seems to be fair in Pakistan, there being extenuating circumstances that give some truth to his stubbornness. Ousted by a combination of guile and selfish interest, driven into a corner very much like had happened to Ms. Benazir, Mian Sahib in his turn in the cold, seems to be resolved that Ms Benazir must be repaid in the same coin. However, unlike Mian Nawaz Sharif, Ms Benazir does not have a hostile but a sympathetic President to contend with and since Gen Babar has “put the Army back in its place and they (the Army) do what the Government tells them to do”, quote and unquote, therefore (at least theoretically) no restless uniformed soldiers to contend with, given that we accept at face value such sweeping rhetoric. Having literally clawed their way back to power, it is highly unlikely that the President and/or the PM would oblige Mian Nawaz Sharif and go the resignation route he was forced to in July 93 in the “supreme interest of the country”. Double standards and separate yardsticks apply, almost in the same manner as one would fail to recognise an elephant just because he (or she) is wearing dark glasses or accept a person rapidly becoming one of the world’s leading billionaires without ostensibly doing any business, at least in the traditional sense of commerce.
As such we are left in an extremely delicate political circumstances at a particularly aggravating time in our country’s history, the situation being only marginally better politically than it was in 1993. On the economic front the only bright spot is the investor interest in energy projects, mainly due to the response and initiative of the Shahid Hassan Khan – Salman Faruqi duo combination. And even they cannot be totally impervious to political compulsions as demanded by the undeserving. With odd exceptions, very few of Ms Benazir’s many ministers or aides seem to be serving her cause, given that service to her cause is measured by what is being done in the national interest, not in the personal interest.
Given all the aforementioned, we are in deep trouble internally, particularly in the important city of Karachi by not allowing the elected (or electable) to be representative of the electorate and compounding it by benign neglect governmentally, leaving the Army to do work it is not equipped to do. Without a socio-economic package, the Army’s stay will only be elongated. There is also a gradual breakdown of sectarian detente all over the country, a violent bloodbath being avoided just recently by the skin of our teeth in Karachi because of firmness by the local Army commanders. The official Sensitive Price Index (SPI) is no longer truly reflective of consumer prices that have gone haywire inflation-wise causing severe economic misery to the masses, anybody noted the price of chicken lately? Rains all over the country have reduced the socio-economic infrastructure and facilities into a sorry state. As further rains continue to be forecasted in an extended monsoon period, we can lay an even bet that the anticipated floods would be as bad, if not worse than in 1992. While the foreign exchange position is brighter than in the dark days of 1993, most of it seems to be speculator-based with stock market liquidity only and as such may take wings as easily as it came into Pakistan in the first place.
To compound this situation, Air Marshal (Retd) Nur Khan, former Commander-in-Chief PAF, former Deputy Chief Martial Law Administrator, former Governor West Pakistan and Central Cabinet Minister, former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, etc, etc as well as failed aspirant for MNA on a PPP ticket, has come out with an amazing statement that our Armed Forces cannot defend the country. Not only is this assumption ridiculous, coming from a respected former ex-Service chief, it is shocking. Furthermore, in cacophony with the past (and present) master of disinformation Altaf Gauhar’s endless diatribe against the ISI (and in extension the Army), it reinforces, however inadvertently, the sinister conspiracy to undermine the capability and resolve of our uniformed personnel to do their duty by their country, in short to accept Indian hegemony. An extremely capable individual, the respected Air Marshal has been somewhat of a publicity hog throughout his life. After all who doesn’t remember the first ever personal appearance of a Service Chief in a PAF-dedicated Urdu feature film, “Qasm us Waqt ki” post 1965? The only way to come centre stage was to raise a controversy that does no good to this country and this nation, putting personal ego before the greater interest of the nation. While Air Marshal’s many services to the nation cannot be washed away by this great aberration, one feels sorry that he has come to such straits (conduct unbecoming a former air chief) as to imply Munich-style appeasement.
One fears that despite the PPP’s great political potential, those around Ms Benazir will forget the lessons learnt in 1990, not to try and jockey their favourites into position in the Armed Forces hierarchy. There is an uneasy suspicion persisting that there will be an attempt to upgrade Gen Waheed by a stroke of the pen to Chairman JCS and put a favourite into place as COAS, alternatively they may like to put the present CAS (on extension), Air Marshal Farooq Feroze into the JCS slot. In their eagerness to put “acceptable” persons in crucial posts, with the banking hierarchical positions and many other crucial appointments made by them as precedents, negative qualities are preferred over positive ones, with nepotism, corruption, weakness of character, subservience etc topping the list. In their convoluted logic, such a tainted person would be “pliable” to their requirements very much in the same manner that intelligence agencies love to put such “controlled” people into sensitive places, like ambassadorial jobs (to important countries), etc on whom they have enough adverse material to keep them as willing “puppets on a string”, sometimes on a personal agenda with a superpower. There is great danger for this nation in applying such criteria for the last real bastion of integrity given that we have just seen a pack of appointments to another bastion, the judiciary, that could have been more judicious and not seen to be filled with those toeing a particular party line. Not that Mian Nawaz Sharif (or late Ziaul Haq, Ghulam Ishaq Khan, etc before him) were blameless on the score. That such “loyal” persons shift loyalties at the drop of a hat during crunch-time is no consolation. Gradually merit is being compromised at the altar of convenience, superseded by loyalty to an individual or a party, very soon merit will become a disqualification whether it be in the judiciary, Armed Forces, civil services, etc. Against the trend, the Army’s promotions and postings at the senior level this year have been outstanding, it has left out in the cold an extremely disgruntled lot who were previously used to ruling the roost undeservedly. It would be in their motivated interest to cleverly ride the Nawaz Sharif groundswell though they patently dislike him. This miserable crowd must be put out of their frustrations, sent packing before they harm the institution and undo the good that has been done. If things were fine and dandy, one may well ask why at the micro-level, Commander 5 Corps, Lt Gen Lehrasab Khan, has been forced to carry out self-cleansing and spring cleaning, at the macro-level the Armed Forces must deal with its own before it is really “put in its place” as the respected Gen Babar claims, or has he jumped the gun and let the cat out of the bag?
That our non-policy on Afghanistan has turned friend and foe against us was bad enough, the normally moderate Indian PM Narasimha Rao has chosen to publicly threaten to “liberate” Azad Jammu and Kashmir by force, this sudden turn to shrill belligerency can only mean that the Kashmiri independence fighters have started to hurt the occupying Indians badly. A worst case scenario could well mean that to ease the pressure, an Indian sneak attack, with the strength of world opinion behind them, against our nuclear facilities is possible, an obvious retaliation by Pakistan and the resultant all out war could very well be fought by us in isolation. The Indians objective would be to seize critical land mass in a massive attack so as to put the Pakistan Armed Forces (and Pakistan) in an untenable Balkan-ized (or Vichy France 1940) position internally and externally circa 1971-1974. The “peace” that would then be imposed (with the support of political Quislings who would accept Indian hegemony just to stay in power) would be worse than living death. Shocking it may be, if it serves to shake us out of the present complacency of accepting the rapid disintegration of our society (and the nation thereof) because of a misguided belief in constitutional mores, it is well worth the effort.
One envies the farsightedness of some of our real leaders. The expensive import of Argentinian polo ponies by airlifting could well be in anticipation of chukkurs with the Indians before the century is out. The Army would still have a job to do, they can make the stage and the traffic arrangements.
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