The Consensus Factor
Two weeks into Ms. Benazir’s formation of the Federal Government, the political truce seems to be holding except for occasional sniping by over-zealous supporters of either side. This has been possible because of the remarkable transformation in the attitude of the leaders of both the major political groupings in contrast to both 1988 and 1990. The post-election moves seem to confirm that both the political groupings do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past. The Federal Government usually has the initiative with respect to bad faith, under critical cynosure the restraint exercised by the PPP across a broad front has been praiseworthy. Contrary to expectations their manner (or mannerisms) do not evoke any reproach, in return the PML(N), in keeping with Mian Nawaz Sharif’s excellent maiden speech as Leader of the Opposition, has reciprocated in good faith. It may not exactly be a “love-fest” as yet, at least sanity prevails and that is why there is peace on our part of Earth.
This peace is likely to be tested in the contest for President, the process of which started on Sunday last with the filing of nomination papers by various candidates. There is a good deal of uncertainty prevailing because of the lack of a clear majority by either side in electoral votes, the PPP-PML(J) combine has 171 electoral votes while the PML(N)-ANP alliance commands 170 electoral votes. With the JWP, BNM(M), NPP, PQP and most of the Minorities supporting the PPP, their count goes upto by 40 to 211 electoral votes. With another 22 confirmed votes of independents, the PPP-led alliance comes tantalisingly close to an outright victory (235 votes) by having 233 electoral votes.
On the other hand, the PML(N) alliance could similarly perhaps get another 52 votes to make their total 222 seats, making it almost a dead heat. This scenario becomes murky since other than the 14 uncounted (including the PIF electoral votes) there are at least 15 votes for the PPP side and 27 votes for the PML(N) which can be considered “soft”, i.e. can swing to either side in a secret ballot, in effect there are 56 votes that may still be counted as “floating”. If more than two major party candidates remain seriously in the race, even a small diversion of votes would throw the contest wide open.
The electoral college being so evenly divided at this stage one can only go over the qualifications of the possibilities but cannot really tabulate anyone’s chances with any degree of confidence. Given that we are less than two weeks away from the election itself, it only serves to show how ridiculous the present process of an indirect election through the electoral college is. It also shows up the inherent potential for manipulation. In effect the corrupting of the democratic system starts with the process of the election of the President. The people of Pakistan elect their representatives for every small constituency of Pakistan by direct vote but are not trusted to go the route of adult franchise in choosing their President. The same analogy applies to the Senate which has become quite an unrepresentative body in the real sense. The purchasing of 50-60 votes is much easier than buying up millions of votes. A genuine reform of the system requires that we must first re-enfranchise the people of Pakistan with respect to the election of both the President and the Senate.
The present scenario calls for either a consensus candidate or a compromise one. A consensus candidate can belong to either of the major political groupings but should not be violently objected to by the other. On the other hand, a compromise candidate would be one who shows no real leaning to any of the political groupings but is deemed to be acceptable to both the sides. A number of independents may throw their hat into the ring but without support of either group they have no serious chance. Since the PPP has the Federal Government and its nominee has been elected the NA Speaker, the PML(N) is maintaining that if the PPP is interested in genuine political detente they must give serious consideration to a PML(N) nominee. The PML(N) point out that they have readily accepted the PPP’s Federal stewardship despite the anomaly between the NA electoral seat count (favouring PPP by quite a margin) and the actual number of votes cast by the electorate (slightly) favouring PML(N). On the other hand, the PPP does not accept this logic and while it also holds out for a consensus it has named a Presidential candidate that the PML(N) (and its allies) would not violently object to. In the uncertain situation, the parties will have to look at either a consensus or a compromise candidate to agree upon. If they fail they can try their luck in a secret ballot where the smallest Province of Balochistan and the “uncommitted” carry an enormous clout belying their actual representative strength. One tends to forget that the Presidential candidate has also to have the requisite all-round qualifications to be a President inasfar as domestic and international stature is concerned. Instead of choosing the lowest common denominator in quality and calibre, the parties have to go for the highest common denominator in having the best choice for the post, not for the one being the most harmless. In the contest of parliamentary democracy, a President with potential for becoming an activist is somewhat of a disqualification given the recent GIK experience.
Listing the possible candidates for Presidency, the PML(N) has initially proposed Acting President Wasim Sajjad, former NA Speaker Capt (Retd) Gohar Ayub Khan, PML(N) Secretary General Senator Sartaj Aziz, MNA Lt Gen (Retd) Abdul Majid Malik and Senator Mohammad Ali Khan Hoti. From the PPP side the viable candidates were possibly MNA Balakh Sher Mazari, MNA Hamid Nasir Chattha, and NWFP PPP leader Aftab Khan Sherpao till Sardar Farooq Khan Leghari emerged as the surprise PPP choice. Both Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan and Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti have also been vying for the PPP’s nod with Bugti claiming a bloc of about 25 electoral votes. Compromise candidates expecting bipartisan support from the PML(N) side could be Air Marshal (Retd) Asghar Khan while from the PPP side mention is being made of support to Moeenuddin Ahmed Qureshi but he did not file his nomination papers. The PML(J) nominee, former President Ghulam Ishaq Khan stands to attract violent PML(N) objections (and one daresays within the PPP rank and file). His nomination by PPP would also give a clear signal from the PPP to the PML(N) that it has opted for confrontation rather than co-existence.
It is most unfortunate that the fact of having been the pointman in the most important landmark legal verdict in Pakistan’s democratic history (by the Supreme Court’s restoration of the NA) perversely makes Gohar Ayub’s candidacy a disqualification in PPP eyes. Going purely on the basis of qualifications, Acting President Wasim Sajjad and Senator Sartaj Aziz emerge as the most viable PML(N) candidates. The incumbency gives a great advantage to Wasim Sajjad as well as the fact that he has conducted himself extremely well during the caretaker period. Senator Sartaj Aziz as PML(N) Secretary General perforce had to have a more partisan role. In a secret ballot Wasim Sajjad could possibly command more votes than any other PML(N) candidate given the incumbency of the Acting Presidency of Pakistan as well as being the Chairman Senate. Despite these handicaps, Senator Sartaj Aziz remains a potential dark horse who, given his background, experience and track record, who, if qualifications not politics alone were the criteria, would make an excellent President. His penchant for honesty and forthrightness could also have broad appeal and acceptance. Balakh Sher Mazari came into national prominence because of his 38-day stint as a GIK-sponsored Caretaker PM but suffered when the Supreme Court declared him illegal. Furthermore Mr Mazari’s seemingly courtier-like behaviour in the NA on prime time TV during the PM elections got him an undeserved “Mary had a little lamb, his hair was white as snow” epithet. Given Akbar Bugti’s uncertain nature (and Presidential ambitions) his lineage could either be an asset or a disqualification in a secret ballot given the inordinate strength of Baloch electoral votes. Sardar Farooq Khan Leghari has the same taint as Senator Sartaj Aziz of being too close to their respective party leaders for the other’s comfort but one must accept that his honesty and integrity is in the same mould as Sartaj Aziz.
Among the possible compromise candidates, Air Marshal (Retd) Asghar Khan would have general acceptability but Moeen Qureshi would have faced strong opposition from the PML(N) because the feeling is that he tilted too much for the PPP in the period before the elections. While the Air Marshal chose to leave the PDA and join up with Nawaz Sharif pre-elections, he was never vocal about any opposition to Ms Benazir and did not actively participate in the election process. An honest man of great integrity, in the circumstances of a possible confrontation with India (which seems increasingly likely), the Air Marshal, along with Abdul Majid Malik would possibly command greater support from the non-voting but extremely potent swing vote of the senior military hierarchy.
Both the major political groups have to display great political maturity in their ultimate choice as the prestige of the Office of the President demands that political expediency be disregarded in the face of the supreme national interest. The man who would be President must command universal respect within and outside the country besides having all the other requisite qualities of honesty and integrity. Above all he must not seem to be either petty or partisan. In case he is seen to be directly under the tutelage of either Mian Nawaz Sharif or Ms Bhutto, it would be fatal for the emerging process democratic quid pro quo. All the good vibes being developed out of the years of suspicion will vanish in a flood of apprehension that will come surging back. It is most important that in electing the person of the President the supreme national interests of Pakistan be kept paramount in supersession to everything else, that a consensus factor be introduced in a mutual choice to build further mutual confidence.
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