Has the 60-day Clock Started Ticking?
The Supreme Court decision on May 26 last year signalled the beginning of the end of the “Empire”. It restored Mian Nawaz Sharif as PM of the Federation and seemed to signal to an excited population that for all practical purposes the machinations of backroom politics (selections) would give way in the future to a genuine representation (elections) of the people at the helm of national affairs. By this token both major political parties would seem to benefit, they had youthful leaders who aroused universal adulation, this was reflected in the near equal October 1993 vote. However, the Empire was not yet quite finished and even while conducting a deliberate retreat, it manoeuvred new alliances (1) ensuring that Mian Nawaz Sharif would not acquire the power that democracy bestows on the elected and (2) the Empire helped Ms Benazir to come to power even though the vote was too close to call and in that process acquired enough IUOs from her to make the going tough whenever she was faced with a political crunch. Because the powers-that-be had contrived to confine his Federal authority to the perimeters of Islamabad and to avoid being frustrated in exercising his Constitutional parameters, which would invoke civil war conditions, Mian Nawaz Sharif quit on July 18, 1993. CMs Mir Afzal Khan (in NWFP), Wattoo (in Punjab), Magsi (in Balochistan) and Muzaffar Shah (in Sindh) were in open defiance of Federal rule. Less than a year later, it would be an understatement to state that the PPP Government in NWFP is shaky at best, Wattoo in Punjab takes advice from everybody but does not listen to anybody, the Government in Sindh is in a state of paralysis because of the PPP-MQM rural-urban divide and Magsi in Balochistan remains very much an independent soul. For Constitutional purists, the Provincial “Autonomy” being presently exercised may not be a bad thing by itself, for a nation increasingly at odds internally on any number of issues, the Centre cannot afford to lose its pre-eminence, given the example of fragmentation of unions along ethnic lines as seen to great detriment in Eastern Europe and former USSR.
The problem with the Ms Benazir Government is that despite her inherent potential, she is badly handicapped by the avarice and greed that she is surrounded with. These forces have virtually emasculated her to her detriment to such an extent that she is powerless to keep the many promises she made to disparate folk in the run-up to the October elections and, thereafter, in the Presidential stakes. To put it bluntly, demand exceeds supply. In a recent luncheon meeting when asked by Ayaz Amir as to what was her priority, whether she was more interested in the present or in the hereinafter, the PM replied quite spontaneously that she wanted history to judge her rule favourably, thereby meaning that she was ready to take powerful decisions for the betterment of the electorate even if they were not popular with the masses in the short run. Unfortunately there seems to be a wide gap between rhetoric and fact, those around her do not seem to share her viewpoint or fervour while engaged in looking to make their present and future economically bright in a hurry. There are too many examples of bad faith in crucial banking appointments to simply pass it off as mere coincidence, the only objective seems to be a confluence of purpose in making as much money as possible as soon as possible. The latest fat-cat appointment is another Safdar Zaidi crony, Khalid Iqbal, being appointed as Managing Director RDFC, when his record as Provincial Chief Punjab MCB (where he was promoted over the heads of many) during the First Ms Benazir Regime was already quite controversial. Either this shows total contempt of accountability or else the unbecoming haste is because the inner circle knows something that is now becoming slowly apparent to us, a time clock on the Ms Benazir regime may have started ticking. The one clear indication is that important political cogs responsible for the downfall of the Mian Nawaz Sharif government are increasingly abandoning ship, among them, Nawab Akbar Bugti, Mir Afzal Khan, Balakh Sher Mazari, Zafarullah Jamali, etc. With the PML (J) merger in NWFP, can Wile E.Wattoo be far behind? Hamid Nasir Chattha may not remain Johnny Cool for long, he will either have to join the bandwagon or be left up the creek without a political paddle. While on the surface the immediate beneficiary of the political developments is Mian Nawaz Sharif, he will probably not be able to reap the rewards till well into the future. For the moment all the portents seem to be for an interim national government made by a third option in an in-house “Constitutional” change. In this context, Zafarullah Jamali is making a good pitch for himself and why not? He has the political credentials, belongs to the smallest (in population) Province and his old school-tie pedigree (Lawrence and Aitchison Colleges) is right. Further he quotes from the PM’s statements favouring national government issue when she was the Leader of the Opposition. If indicators from the appointment to an important post in the Army are correct including the fact of two impending promotions of hard-core professionals to Lt Gen, the smoke signals can be clear enough to be read to the detriment of the PPP hierarchy in the near future. The Army seems to have reluctantly swallowed the foreign policy setback on Kashmir, borne the frustrations of the Sikh question, the heating up of nuclear pressure, etc but how long will it stand by till it begins to be included as accessories (however unwitting and unwilling) to the daylight robbery going on? Frankly, Ms Benazir has tremendous potential but does not have the determination to face upto reality of the worsening situation and the persons eminently responsible for it. She has her undeniable charisma going for her but even that quality of her has been selfishly exploited by an unscrupulous coterie light years away from the soul of PPP. If Mir Murtaza laments the loss of PPP-purity he is not far wrong, unfortunately the only thing he has going for himself are his rather distraught mother who does not seem to decide on the choice of siblings to support. Starting from her main base in Sindh where the PPP policy has suddenly gone bankrupt to the NWFP where one is slightly dazed at the swift turn of events that is threatening to cut down PPP Superstar Aftab Sherpao, the country is in a holy mess, granted not all of PPP’s making. With initiatives failing on all fronts and short of ideas, the PPP’s Government’s possible demise can best be gauged from the number of insiders who will distance themselves by diplomatically opting for face-saving “outsider” jobs in the near future.
With the PPP bereft of answers while rapidly running out of room for manoeuvre and with the PML (N) not quite having the majority to ensure Constitutional rule without the blackmail by a handful of legislators, what is available to us but the third option? In December 1992, when Mian Nawaz Sharif was PM, he had a unique opportunity in the wake of Ms Benazir’s failed “Long March” to make a National Government on his initiative and on his terms. At that time we had said that Mian Sahib should not be like “the Wind which cannot read” as expressed in our article “The Need for National Consensus”. The Nation, Nov 27, 1992 and the same holds true now for Ms Benazir. In fact at that time it was her demand which was not so justifiable as in the present circumstances. While to avert anarchy a third option may be desirable but it does not really reflect the aspirations of the broad mass of the people, further it tends to short-circuit a fail-safe line as far as Constitutional propriety is concerned. Democracy does not envisage any circumstances where either of the majority political parties is not involved in the formation of a government. As such any third option has to be formed with the help of both the majority parties well represented in the establishment of government. Given the fact that a 90-day period is barely good enough to solve the country’s problems, a 900-day period is more feasible.
Ms Benazir has shown that she is a resilient political player, in forming her present government inspite of being well short of a majority she has also shown her skills in compromise and in bringing disparate factions together. At this time (1) a combination of circumstances that are not in her control and (2) malafide initiatives by these nominally in her control have bankrupted her kitty of goodwill and thus seriously undermined her abilities to govern this nation. By taking a possible initiative now to make a national government, she will remain mistress of the game, alternatively it may well mean another stretch in the political cold. While she still has the political strength to move forces at her own behest, let her make that move. While it may be unfortunate, the fact of life remains that an invisible 60-day clock has started its not-so silent ticking.
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