System Failure?
A low-key but intense national debate has been initiated because of the comments of some foreign observers expressing doubt about Pakistan’s survival as an entity. In the immortal paraphrased words of Mark Twain, “rumours of our demise may have been greatly exaggerated”, a cursory analysis does show that the “doom and gloom” clouds are much more dense in Karachi, even among sincere, dedicated citizens, than up-country. In the face of continued insecure environment for the city’s citizens, this is not surprising. The creeping anxiety in the psyche of the intellectuals and the entrepreneurs should ring alarm bells for those who are genuinely interested in the continued sovereignty and integrity of the country.
An extremely bright, young ISI major in the then East Pakistan in November 1990 gave his visiting boss from Islamabad a presentation in Dhaka as to what was likely to happen if events continued to follow an uncertain and erratic course. He ended his detailed submission by commenting that those who strongly believed in a united Pakistan felt very insecure as they would be left in the lurch if the worst came to pass. Having said his piece with courage, the field officer waited with bated breath for pearls of wisdom to emanate from the great man. It was not long in forthcoming, “if you are feeling scared, let me shift you and your family to West Pakistan”. That astonished young man, who later rose to high military rank in Bangladesh, decided in sheer frustration at that point of time that despite his personal convictions about the survival of Pakistan, his ethnic background left him no choice but to go with the growing synergy among the masses in then East Pakistan for a separate country. Whereas the intent of the individual was to bring into focus the strategic relevance of the times, his boss, whose appointment and vision thereof should have taken in the measure of the situation, reduced the implications to that of a petty individual requirement. Of such faux pas by the high and mighty is secession born! Today if you go to Islamabad and aspire to get the attention of those who matter in between office routine, afternoon nap, golf, riding and/or tennis and before the usual evening reception (i.e. business as usual), the answer to your repeated entreaties to please focus on Karachi in supersession to everything else is, “shift your family to Islamabad!” When you pester them repeatedly in the hope that maybe your persistence would break through their veneer of calm, the telephone operator (or bearer or whoever) has a repeated message for you, “Sahib has just left for a reception”. If this was confined to one person one would dismiss it as an aberration, unfortunately the exasperation with the bearer of bad tidings about Karachi is universal in Islamabad. While the country was burning in 1970-71, the leadership was out to an extended lunch, no wonder our world collapsed around us. Such is the irony of fate that when it did collapse, all those who had gone from pillar to post predicting dire straits unless remedial measures were taken, immediately became “traitors” for having stated the obvious. Twenty-five years later this is the same labelling for those who now dare to talk (and write) about growing Mohajir alienation from the Pakistan mainstream. The tragedy is that now almost, all except some myopic parochial diehards (with what goes for brains in their shoes), accept that gross mistakes across the whole spectrum were committed in the East Pakistan, dereliction of the norms of leadership and statecraft being directly responsible for the disaster.
Countdown (All Over) Again?
An expatriate Pakistani friend of ours rang up from the US recently to enquire whether it was safe to come home on leave to Pakistan as he had it on good authority that there would be trouble come September. Sad and frustrating though it was to hear bad news travelling so fast so far, it was hardly prophetic. Being immunized by the daily casualty figures of the MQM (A) – MQM (H) internecine warfare in Karachi, now further supplemented by the ever increasing Fiqah Jafria – SSP strife as representative of the collapsing social detente all over the country, one wonders what worse one could expect? The announcement by the Leader of the Opposition, Mian Nawaz Sharif, on Aug 14 in Karachi (repeated again in Islamabad on Aug 18) that he was hell-bent on bringing the government down, with the resignation of the Opposition (mainly PML (N) and ANP) Senators and MNAs from the Senate and NA Committees as a first step in demanding that the President and PM resign by Sept 11 or face a mass movement thereafter, one can hardly blame anyone for being pessimistic about the worsening security environment in Pakistan, both internally and externally. With obvious and automatic government reaction, the situation could escalate and the present bloodletting would be a Sunday school picnic in comparison to the bloodbath that is likely to ensue. A stage may well come that even if the Army steps in, they could not stem the slide into anarchy.
Any citizen dispassionately and deeply concerned about the present deteriorating economic, political and social climate, can hardly call the Opposition leader’s threat as fair but then in politics (as in war) nothing seems to be fair in Pakistan, there being extenuating circumstances that give some truth to his stubbornness. Ousted by a combination of guile and selfish interest, driven into a corner very much like had happened to Ms. Benazir, Mian Sahib in his turn in the cold, seems to be resolved that Ms Benazir must be repaid in the same coin. However, unlike Mian Nawaz Sharif, Ms Benazir does not have a hostile but a sympathetic President to contend with and since Gen Babar has “put the Army back in its place and they (the Army) do what the Government tells them to do”, quote and unquote, therefore (at least theoretically) no restless uniformed soldiers to contend with, given that we accept at face value such sweeping rhetoric. Having literally clawed their way back to power, it is highly unlikely that the President and/or the PM would oblige Mian Nawaz Sharif and go the resignation route he was forced to in July 93 in the “supreme interest of the country”. Double standards and separate yardsticks apply, almost in the same manner as one would fail to recognise an elephant just because he (or she) is wearing dark glasses or accept a person rapidly becoming one of the world’s leading billionaires without ostensibly doing any business, at least in the traditional sense of commerce.
The Continuity Factor
Mr Moeenuddin Qureshi, formerly Senior Vice President in the World Bank, effectively No. 2 of this international finance institution, has been appointed Caretaker PM of Pakistan for the period covering the elections and the installation of the elected Federal Government after the polls. In his first informal chat with reporters and journalists, he has emphatically emphasized free and fair elections as his first priority, adding that the polls should not only be free and fair they should be perceived by the general public as such.
While it is true that Moeen Qureshi is not exactly a household word in Pakistan, in Pakistani economic circles he is revered and respected as one of Pakistan’s finest economists, a man who had reached the pinnacle of international recognition on sheer dint of merit. After more than a decade (since 1980) as the No. 2 man in the World Bank, Mr Qureshi took voluntary optional retirement as only a US citizen could be President of the World Bank according to the Bretton Woods agreement. Having reached his level he wanted to devote his time to private pursuits as an international consultant. With established credentials as a non-political person acceptable to all parties but having international recognition, Moeen Qureshi’s selection was brilliant because it fulfilled both political and economic purposes. In this interim period where it is extremely important to re-open the in-flow Consortium Aid, there would be no better individual qualified to address this issue with his former colleagues in the international finance institutions. He has obvious credibility as a respected finance person in the capitals of the World, both among developed and developing countries. Lastly and most important, as a committed free market exponent he brings an economic continuity factor to Nawaz Sharif’s policies so that Pakistan does not stay in economic limbo. The people of Pakistan will decide in early October whether they want to support Nawaz Sharif or give a different mandate to his opponents. As such while Moeen Quereshi has ostensibly been brought in for political purposes as a neutral person having international experience, he has the added advantage of being a major force-multiplier on the economic front.