Accountability
The Intent of Fairplay
The Caretaker Government is committed to holding free and fair elections in Pakistan, to that end there has been a very deliberate choice of neutral personalities in forming the Administration at the Federal and Provincial level. Strict neutrality is a commitment of the Caretaker PM. Less than one month into the Caretaker period and less than two months before the October elections, the carefully nurtured perception of impartiality has taken a very hard knock in Sindh.
Independence Day 1993 was initially touted as the day of launching campaigns by the major political parties, knowledgeable speculation was that the two chosen symbolic points of departure would be the Quaid’s Mazar and the Pakistan Memorial by the PML (N) and PPP respectively. While the PML (N) applied for permission from the local Karachi administration on 5 August, requesting for a procession culminating in a public rally at the Quaid’s Mazar, the PPP immediately made a similar request. Faced with the possibility of clashes, the Civil Administration imposed Sec 144 and refused permission for both the rallies. In an advanced stage of preparation in contrast to the fairly low level of interest shown by the PPP, the PML (N) felt aggrieved that they had been badly treated. Notwithstanding the lack of permission, Nawaz Sharif did come to Karachi, did lead a long slow moving procession from the Airport to the Quaid’s Mazar and did address a 20,000 plus crowd at 3 O’clock in the morning of August 15, 1993, without any interference from the Civil administration, a benign indifference after the flat refusal that showed good sense in hindsight and stopped further erosion of the Caretaker’s moral authority about neutrality.
The Murtaza Factor
Begum Nusrat Bhutto, Co-Chairperson of the Pakistan People’s Party, has announced that her self-exiled son Murtaza Bhutto will contest in the October Elections for both the National Assembly and Provincial Assembly from Sindh for several seats. While it is expected that he will return to the country after the Elections, speculation had been rife for some time that Murtaza would return and take his place in the political life of the country. The only deterrent to his immediate comeback being apprehensions about possible arrest for the many allegations of terrorism that have been preferred against him over the years.
Anticipating the worst for the father, the two sons, Murtaza and Shahnawaz were sent out of Pakistan by the family for the sake of their personal safety while barely out of their teens. As the sons of any father should, they vowed vengeance on Gen Zia and his Martial Law Administration for what they perceived to be murder. The terrorism issue surfaced in the early 80s after the PIA hijacking in which Capt (Retd) Tariq Rahim, formerly ADC to late Mr Bhutto, was brutally murdered at Kabul Airport by the hijackers. Since the hijacking was done in the name of Al-Zulfikar and the sons of Mr Bhutto had come to Kabul Airport to meet the hijackers a conclusion was drawn about their collaboration. It may be remembered that Ajmal Khattak of NAP, who was in self-exile in Kabul at that time, was also alleged to be involved. This was more conjecture than direct evidence but it did serve to establish Al-Zulfikar as a terrorist organisation and the “smoking gun” at Kabul associated Bhutto’s sons with the planning and execution of its operations in the 80s decade. There is always a fine line dividing terrorism from a fight against oppression. At various times, Afghan KHAD, the KGB, Libyans, Syrians, Indian RAW, etc have been identified as financing and controlling Al-Zulfikar’s operations. Murtaza and Shahnawaz (till he died) roamed around as international refugees unable to return home. The terrorism charge made it increasingly difficult for them to travel between countries.
The Loneliness of the Long-Distance Flyer
Air Marshal (Retd) Asghar Khan, Chief of Tehrik-i-Istiqlal (TI), has recently written a letter to the Head of the Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDA), Ms Benazir Bhutto, severing the relationship established in the autumn of 1990 to fight the IJI in the October 1990 elections. While the Air Marshal participated whole-heartedly in the anti-Ghulam Ishaq Khan/Nawaz Sharif campaign till November 1992, it was clear that he had reservations about the Ms Bhutto-conceived Long Marches. However, it was the newly formed Bhutto relationship with Ghulam Ishaq Khan in April 1993 that seemed to upset Asghar Khan to the point of eventual parting. It was clear that while he was determined to unseat what he perceived to be a fraudulently elected government, he felt that a show of force would bring about a confrontation that would bring third forces into the fray. He considered that democratic dialogue could be held with Nawaz Sharif as opposed to GIK, the epitome of the Establishment. Ms Bhutto was single-mindedly pursuing one Aim, the holding of mid-term elections and in maintenance of that Aim she had successfully created a cleavage between GIK and Nawaz Sharif by first negotiating with the latter and then feeding on the fears of the former by embellishing on the dialogue as a Nawaz Sharif-means to rid the country of GIK’s Presidency. Whatever may be her methods to achieve her ends, she has been eminently successful. To quote Mikhail Bakunin (1814-1976), “In politics as in high finance, duplicity is a virtue”. Unfortunately for the well-respected former Chief of the Pakistan Air Force, his total life is replete with a penchant for high morals and ideals, qualities that are in short supply in political persona all over the world, in Pakistan it is a rarity that qualifies the few as being “endangered species”.
By opting out of the mainstream alliance, Air Marshal Asghar Khan has again gone into the political cold, a situation with which this old flyer is quite familiar since his advent into politics. As reported by Altaf Gauhar, late President Ayub felt Asghar Khan to be more “dangerous” than Bhutto in the anti-Ayub campaign of 1968 as he would not enter into any dialogue that would compromise any move towards genuine democracy. In a sense this was a compliment of sorts because Ayub equated Bhutto with other politicians and therefore malleable, having served with Asghar Khan in the Armed Forces he well knew that this man’s integrity could not be subverted or compromised. One must hasten to add that late Bhutto also remained intransigent about any compromise during this period.
The Campaign Commences
Over the past few months the Quaid’s Mazar has been the subject of more attention than usual what with governments falling and forming. The Mazar makes for a good photo-opportunity, transient dignitaries find it necessary to do homage on Prime Time TV. To launch their election campaign, PML Nawaz Sharif Group chose the Mazar as their point of departure to coincide with Independence Day celebrations. While it was widely believed that PPP would launch their campaign from the Pakistan Memorial at Lahore, as soon as they heard about the PML (N) decision, they also decided that the Mazar would be their choice also. Frankly, it is unfair that they are being equated even for consideration but one supposes the Administration can read the PPP writing on Sindh’s walls.
While it is too early to really see anything emerging from the political kaleidoscope before the full list of candidates comes before us and electoral alliances/adjustments are complete, the PPP has got off to a fast start as they have been working towards a mid-term election for some time and have the necessary grassroots organisation. With their own shakedown now complete after taking stock of the breakaway factions, the PML(N) is putting together an extremely comprehensive and potent campaign mechanism. Spearheading the effort is the indefatigable Senator Sartaj Aziz as Acting Secretary General and Mushahid Hussain as Information Secretary. With these capable and hand-picked Nawaz loyalists as the nucleus, the PML campaign is now taking form and shape. One is struck by the sophistication of the effort being organised, in contrast to the disinformation and negative exercise that was conducted the last two times around, the present set-up gives an assured and mature complexion to the hurly-burly of the projected campaign ahead. Nawaz Sharif has shown an unerring instinct for choosing the right persons for critical posts (barring one or two glaring exceptions) and the Sartaj Aziz/Mushahid combine is in stark contrast to the better organised but frenetic appearance of the Bhutto campaign.
The Perception of Impartiality
To end the political impasse that was rapidly bringing the country to economic apocalypse as well as civil war conditions, the COAS Pakistan Army Gen Waheed brokered an agreement between the President and the PM that accepted the demand of the Opposition for the conduct of free and fair mid-term elections. A significant part of the unpublicised agreement was that the COAS became the guarantor of the terms accepted by all the sides. The former PM felt that as long as the President was able to carry out extra-constitutional interference in the day to day running of the country, fair elections were hardly possible. GIK and the Opposition reciprocated this mutual feeling of distrust as long as the former PM called the shots in the Federal Government. As the ultimate compromise it was agreed that both the President and the PM would step down in favour of a generally neutral regime. The Army’s role as guarantor would hopefully restrict the propensity of the various security agencies to influence the results in the manner that they would deem fit.
The choice of Moeenuddin Qureshi to head the Caretaker Regime was motivated out of a genuine need to have an impartial non-controversial but effective person responsible for the affairs of Pakistan in the interim period. That the Caretaker PM is a man of some international stature and known integrity as well as a world respected economist was an additional plus point. There are those who decry his lack of experience within Pakistan but in the present state of extreme polarisation where anybody who is anybody has got involved in one way or the other with one side or the other, one considers that particular “inexperience” to be a necessary virtue. Spelling out his first priority as the holding of free and fair elections in Pakistan, Moeen Qureshi gave out the sorry state of our economy as his second priority. This dual capability is a bonus for Pakistan. On a brief private visit to Washington for a medical check-up, the PM kept up a busy schedule of official engagements arranged at short notice, primarily including US Vice President Al Gore and the major international finance institutions, the World Bank and the IMF. Before leaving for the US, Mr. Moeen Qureshi laid the base for the concept of impartiality by inducting into Cabinet office such eminent persons as are generally considered to be without any party affiliations, both in the Federal and Provincial set-ups. With respect to his choice, to his credit there has been no criticism as yet. A number of subsequent steps need to be taken to ensure that the concept of neutrality remains paramount throughout the election process and the capacity of those who are past masters of subverting a neutral process to their nefarious designs is restrained.
The Countdown Begins
The Caretaker PM, Mr. Moeenuddin Qureshi, has given as his first priority the conduct of free and fair elections. With 70 days to go the polls for the National Assembly, the Countdown may have started but electioneering has not yet commenced in earnest. Despite that we are much further advanced today in the pre-election process than we were on May 26 when the Supreme Court scuttled the July 14 date set by Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Co, which only goes to show that there is much more confidence about the elections of October 6 being held in comparison to the July 14 date. One must also state that the present Caretaker arrangement inspires confidence about their neutrality as opposed to the Supreme Court-terminated Balakh Sher arrangement which was clearly partial.
While elections are certainly a priority, the first priority remains the economy. Because of the prolonged state of limbo, Pakistan’s economy has been under severe pressure. The uncertainty has added to nervousness among potential investors thereby knocking down the sequence of events that was to lead us towards economic amelioration. Inflow of investment is the main prop for bolstering the economy during the state of transition. To cater for the shortfall, PM Moeen Qureshi will certainly ask his friends in the World Bank and IMF for international aid to start flowing immediately. One feels that he would do better by asking for a Debt Moratorium/Debt rescheduling for a three-year period. The policy of liberalisation has meant the removal of bureaucratic controls in order to attract investors to a free economy. Unfortunately investors have stayed away due to the political instability but the free economy environment and its lack of checks and curbs has created an adverse economic imbalance to the detriment of Pakistan. Our foreign exchange reserves have dwindled alarmingly. Massive devaluation by India had already effectively undercut our major export earners, cotton textiles, the hiatus in early reaction has contributed to taking us to the verge of economic apocalypse.
The Continuity Factor
Mr Moeenuddin Qureshi, formerly Senior Vice President in the World Bank, effectively No. 2 of this international finance institution, has been appointed Caretaker PM of Pakistan for the period covering the elections and the installation of the elected Federal Government after the polls. In his first informal chat with reporters and journalists, he has emphatically emphasized free and fair elections as his first priority, adding that the polls should not only be free and fair they should be perceived by the general public as such.
While it is true that Moeen Qureshi is not exactly a household word in Pakistan, in Pakistani economic circles he is revered and respected as one of Pakistan’s finest economists, a man who had reached the pinnacle of international recognition on sheer dint of merit. After more than a decade (since 1980) as the No. 2 man in the World Bank, Mr Qureshi took voluntary optional retirement as only a US citizen could be President of the World Bank according to the Bretton Woods agreement. Having reached his level he wanted to devote his time to private pursuits as an international consultant. With established credentials as a non-political person acceptable to all parties but having international recognition, Moeen Qureshi’s selection was brilliant because it fulfilled both political and economic purposes. In this interim period where it is extremely important to re-open the in-flow Consortium Aid, there would be no better individual qualified to address this issue with his former colleagues in the international finance institutions. He has obvious credibility as a respected finance person in the capitals of the World, both among developed and developing countries. Lastly and most important, as a committed free market exponent he brings an economic continuity factor to Nawaz Sharif’s policies so that Pakistan does not stay in economic limbo. The people of Pakistan will decide in early October whether they want to support Nawaz Sharif or give a different mandate to his opponents. As such while Moeen Quereshi has ostensibly been brought in for political purposes as a neutral person having international experience, he has the added advantage of being a major force-multiplier on the economic front.
The Summer of our Discontent
Two decades ago the unadulterated ambition of our then leaders overwhelmed the integrity of the most beautiful experiment in nationhood of its time, we have not seemed to learn anything from that sorry episode. We are now in the midst of the most serious political crisis since 1971. The rapidly degenerating state of our economy seems to get only cursory attention while our leaders pursue their own selfish agendas. The Army may yet get over its “reluctant suitor” status before the country goes down the drain (and there is nothing left to defend). After all there is a difference between restraint and inaction. Martial Law is not a solution but the influence that the Army can bring to bear on the politicians should not be held in abeyance till Doomsday. Quick solutions to the political maelstrom will not cause the rapid rejuvenation of our economic situation, this will be a long and painful process adversely affecting the common man placed downstream at the fag end of the economy. Since only a small percentage of our population is privileged to be uncommon, a vast majority are bound to face acute hardship.
In a state of transition, the economy is very vulnerable to external factors. While privatisation was initiated by Ms Benazir Bhutto’s PPP regime, it commenced in earnest due to the dynamism and drive of businessman PM Nawaz Sharif. Along with Deregulation, Disinvestment and Denationalisation, the Nawaz Sharif regime carried out a series of far-reaching liberalising reforms, removing straitjackets from the economy and raising the confidence of the business community. Acclaimed as a genuine politician only post-April 17, 1993, Nawaz Sharif has been impatient to rid the economy of artificially imposed shackles, removing it from the clutches of a bureaucracy corrupted to its very core. In order to kickstart the economy and an ingrained political inclination to achieve economic results within his tenure, he embarked on a series of extremely visible public sector projects in the field of communications, mainly motorways and telecommunications. Like Stephen Leacock’s hero, he seems to have jumped on his horse and galloped off in all directions, the PM should have paid more attention to prioritization. Funds have been hard to come by and credits have only added to the burgeoning national debt, debt servicing already reaching 35.5% of the available annual government revenues. The PM’s enthusiasm may be genuine and not wholly misplaced but financial managers normally tend to be conservative rather than dynamic, cautious rather than creative, they have been caught unawares and thus unready to cope with the demands for more and more funds. The Nawaz Sharif regime thus suffers from the public perception of haste and waste at the very core of its leadership. What was the use of taking back the VIP aircraft from PIA? Whenever it was required PIA could have made it available. This perception is most unfortunate as besides becoming the focus of public censuring, it calls into question the efficacy of perfectly sound plans for the betterment of the communications system in Pakistan. The Islamabad-Lahore Motorway is an excellent scheme but scandal arose in the manner of the hasty award to Daewoo without international tender. Recently the single tenderer for the Sheikhupura-DG Khan motorway tried a fait accompli in trying to persuade the PM into accepting its bid. Thankfully enthusiasm failed to get the better of good sense as it did in the case of Daewoo. Wise and mature leaders do not let themselves be carried away by the shenanigans of the unscrupulous.
Dissolution Again?
Towards the end of the Supreme Court hearings that led to the historic verdict of May 26, the Empire showed its hand regarding future course of action by coordinating a media offensive by the CMs of the Provinces against the PM. The Provinces followed this up by requesting the Honourable Supreme Court that they be allowed to become party to the petition being heard by the Provinces. At the fag end of the arguments, the Supreme Court allowed them to make their brief submissions against giving the Petitioner any relief but were obviously not impressed enough to affect its verdict. Having lost the Courtroom battle, the Empire shifted its battle lines to the Provinces, as events are unfolding, with consequences far more dangerous. If one were to do serious war gaming, the scenario would unfold like this, the dissolution of the PAs (and the on/off restoration process thereof) would be followed by the NA Budget Session. Forced to impose certain direct taxes in the Budget to meet the officially projected Rs 85 billion deficit (more in the region of Rs 110 billion) the Federal Government would face stiff opposition within the Assembly and this would flow into the streets. The Provincial Governments would stand back and let anarchy take hold. If the Federal Government used Rangers they would yell blue murder and civil war conditions would be created. The Army would have to be called in to restore order, the situation would then be ripe where the President would be satisfied that conditions are such that the Federal Government could no longer perform its duties and an Emergency would be declared, the jurisdiction of the judiciary with respect to fundamental rights would be suspended. The NA having passed the Budget, it would have done the same job a Queen does for any Empire, having produced a male heir it would have no further use for the Empire and would be dissolved again. All this may sound far fetched but given the legal and political footwork witnessed in the last two weeks, particularly in the Punjab, this is very much within the realm of a distinct possibility, desperate men never fear any consequences for society at large and nations in particular.
As much as the PM is to be commended for extending an olive branch to the Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, he failed in a crucial test of political sagacity, he should have also made moves to pacify the President. Given that Ghulam Ishaq Khan may not have reciprocated to any of his overtures, why work on the assumption that he would not? Whatever may be the political differences of the PM with the President, as long as he is the President he represents the unity of the Federation and he must be given due deference as becomes his position. One may not like him, that is no reason to show disrespect by eliminating the crucial and necessary dialogue between State and Government that is the essence of smooth governance. Political requirements may require that the Constitution be suitably amended to balance the powers equitably, that does not obviate respect for the Office that is the highest in the land according to the Constitution. Politics enjoins the art of compromise, the PM has far less differences with the President than Ms Bhutto has, even given their present cosy relationship. By not opening up communication channels to the old man on the hill, the PM has closed down an option that is very much available to the Leader of the Opposition to exploit to the PM’s detriment. It also gives an opportunity for self-seekers around the President to evolve a hard stance against the PM. These people will not allow this old man to rest in his twilight years. In defeat, Nawaz Sharif showed admirable defiance, in victory he must show extraordinary magnanimity. At the moment the President is in a corner fighting for his political life and he is fighting back in the ways he knows how to, unfortunately the no-holds barred stance on either side is seriously damaging the political and economic fabric of the Federation. Muslim tradition dictates that if an enemy lands up at your doorstep you cannot deny him succour or hospitality, for the sake of this country Nawaz Sharif must swallow his pride and land up at the Presidential doorstep. How can we know whether the old man on the hill really believes that forgiveness is divine unless this precept is really tested. The PM has people like Elahi Baksh Soomro, Sartaj Aziz, Malik Majid, etc with access to the President, to act as initiators and moderators of any dialogue. Why does he not use them?
The Task Ahead
Despite his worst inclinations (not to talk about designs), the President has continued to heap favours on Nawaz Sharif that add to his political mileage. After delivering his speech of April 17, the PM badly needed something like the ham-handed overkill of the April 18 Presidential Dissolution (along with Dismissal of the PM and his Cabinet for good effect) in order to be confirmed in the eyes of the masses as a genuine political leader of national stature. In a space of 24 hours (give or take a little) the President transformed Nawaz Sharif from what his worst detractors held him to be, as a slightly rebellious Establishment front man, to the status of an underdog in full fledged revolt. As the world knows, everyone loves an underdog especially one who has the courage to take on Goliath. April 18 made Nawaz Sharif independent of all the IOUs that had shackled him to the geriatric epitome of bureaucracy personified in the person of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and all that was wrong in this country because of it. If April 18 was not enough, the continued Ishaq-sponsored machinations post the May 26 Supreme Court verdict continued to shower blessings on Nawaz Sharif’s political career, it also rapidly evaporated the euphoria of victory and brought the Nawaz Sharif camp back to Mother Earth and political reality, survival in the quicksand of Pakistani politics was still around the corner. The President’s action set in motion a series of events that can only culminate in further benefits to the PM in the matter of governance of the country as it serves to clear the decks. The Dissolution of the Punjab and NWFP Assemblies could have been written by a Nawaz Sharif loyalist Script-writer, both events will further drive nails into the coffin of future Presidential interference. The best side-effect of all this were the public moves of rapprochement between the PM and Ms Bhutto on the floor of the House, a process that may still fall apart for any number of reasons, but given the groundswell of public goodwill and expectation it generated, will have repercussions for whoever is the recalcitrant party.
With the possibility that the Punjab Assembly will most likely be restored, the Wattoo-ising of Wattoo should take another three days or so. With his power base thus re-solidified, the PM should be able to negotiate with (and not take dictation from) the Opposition. It is always important for any genuine negotiations to be held without fear of coercion on either party, the results arrived at are much more sincere and lasting. Some of the more salient points of difference and possible compromise need to be evaluated in depth before discussions as they would effect the wide spectrum of the masses throughout Pakistan, the public good rather than the vested interest of any one political grouping must prevail.