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The Campaign Commences

Over the past few months the Quaid’s Mazar has been the subject of more attention than usual what with governments falling and forming. The Mazar makes for a good photo-opportunity, transient dignitaries find it necessary to do homage on Prime Time TV. To launch their election campaign, PML Nawaz Sharif Group chose the Mazar as their point of departure to coincide with Independence Day celebrations. While it was widely believed that PPP would launch their campaign from the Pakistan Memorial at Lahore, as soon as they heard about the PML (N) decision, they also decided that the Mazar would be their choice also. Frankly, it is unfair that they are being equated even for consideration but one supposes the Administration can read the PPP writing on Sindh’s walls.

While it is too early to really see anything emerging from the political kaleidoscope before the full list of candidates comes before us and electoral alliances/adjustments are complete, the PPP has got off to a fast start as they have been working towards a mid-term election for some time and have the necessary grassroots organisation. With their own shakedown now complete after taking stock of the breakaway factions, the PML(N) is putting together an extremely comprehensive and potent campaign mechanism. Spearheading the effort is the indefatigable Senator Sartaj Aziz as Acting Secretary General and Mushahid Hussain as Information Secretary. With these capable and hand-picked Nawaz loyalists as the nucleus, the PML campaign is now taking form and shape. One is struck by the sophistication of the effort being organised, in contrast to the disinformation and negative exercise that was conducted the last two times around, the present set-up gives an assured and mature complexion to the hurly-burly of the projected campaign ahead. Nawaz Sharif has shown an unerring instinct for choosing the right persons for critical posts (barring one or two glaring exceptions) and the Sartaj Aziz/Mushahid combine is in stark contrast to the better organised but frenetic appearance of the Bhutto campaign.

There are many issues that will be the subject of debate for inclusion in the various manifestoes, necessarily there will be difference in form and style rather than substance. The usual accusations of indifference while in power will be hurled at each other, corruption charges will be bandied about. Foreign policy and social issues will be held to cynosure. On the personal front, an attempt will be made to make Murtaza Bhutto an issue if he should return. On the economic front, the Nawaz Sharif Government has a vast lead over the PPP as they implemented what was still being debated by the earlier Ms Benazir regime. This was never so apparent as during the 38 days of the Balakh Sher Caretaker Government, rather than changing any of the existing Nawaz Sharif policies, Balakh Sher’s Finance Minister and PPP stalwart Farooq Leghari went on the defensive, reduced to repeating again and again that none of the previous Regime’s economic policies would change. While Nawaz Sharif is generally blamed for profligate attitude towards spending, it was the Ms Benazir Government that reversed the 1985 vintage Junejo-initiated Suzuki-isation of the Establishment expenditures.

While Ms Benazir has a hard core of support, Nawaz Sharif’s initiatives has created a groundswell among the masses that he will certainly go all out to tap in the weeks leading upto election date. One feels that the race is extremely close and a lot will depend upon swing votes that are in every constituency, the great silent majority. It is believed from PML(N) sources that rather than focus on personalities there will likely be targeted issues based on acquiring crucial swing votes. The first issue is the job quotas which favour rural Sindhis and Baloch and tends to discriminate against Mohajirs, Punjabis and Pathans in that order. There is tremendous frustration among the urban-based youth because of the quotas as it militates against the concept of rewarding merit. Since Nawaz Sharif is the primary advocate of the free enterprise system that requires merit rather than control and patronage for its sustenance, he is inclined to initiate modification of the quota system so as to give more weightage to merit. A correct approach would be to reduce the percentage of reserved seats/posts (quota) drastically to about 15-20%, covering only the backward areas of the Frontier Tribal Regions, Sindh and Balochistan as well as the neglected areas of Punjab and Sarhad. Fully 80% or more should be awarded on the basis of merit. If Nawaz Sharif were to announce this modification of job/educational quotas on launching his campaign, he will gain the crucial 12,000-15,000 Mohajir votes in each urban constituency of Punjab and Sarhad, the difference between victory and defeat in many constituencies. He has also to draw these people out to the Polling Stations. Forty-five plus years into Pakistan’s independence, the quota system is an albatross around the neck of the development of the country and must be done away with. Ms Benazir cannot address this issue without hitting at the core of her Sindhi support, Nawaz Sharif has to decide whether he has the courage to practice what he preaches about merit and give the youth of Pakistan a fair chance for their future. The swing of Mohajir votes could be further cemented if Gen (Retd) Aslam Beg steps into full time campaigning for the PML after August 18 when he will be technically available. Given the fact that Gen Beg took part as a student in the Pakistan movement, PML Mainstream is the only place to go.

Air Marshal (Retd) Asghar Khan’s disassociation from the PDA deprives Ms Benazir of the cloak of credibility among the 50-65 years Senior Citizens group that this veteran leader gave her post-1990. The PPP would have been wiped out in 1990 if the Air Marshal had not stood by her and questioned the poll rigging in critical constituencies. While Air Marshal Asghar Khan is certainly not considered politically pragmatic, he has tremendous credibility because of his clean, honest image and refusal to stoop down for short-term benefits. Among a particular section of the urban constituency, particularly Senior Citizens, he is deeply revered. Almost universally admired among the Armed Forces, he does not fit Simon Cameron’s description of an “honest” politician, “one who once bought, stays bought”. Air Marshal Asghar Khan has stayed unbought, politically unwise but very correct and something to eulogise in the corruption-ridden world of Pakistani politics. Asghar Khan’s entry on the side of Nawaz Sharif will appeal to 10-12% of the electorate in each urban constituency, another about 10,000-12,000 vote swing that could be crucial in critical races. Ms Benazir should have done everything in her power to keep the Air Marshal within the fold, his entry as a campaigner for Nawaz Sharif candidates in key urban constituencies could be fatal for certain PPP stalwarts who are struggling. Moreover, the PPP cannot attack Air Marshal Asghar Khan frontally without inviting serious backlash among the electorate.

Both the quota issue (if adopted, albeit in a modified fashion and duly supported by Aslam Beg) as well as Asghar Khan’s advent on the side of Nawaz Sharif are significant factors that can affect the course of the elections dramatically. While the race is too early to call, one is impressed with the calm sophistication of the PML(N) hierarchy in comparison to the excitable frenetic activity at the PPP’s Campaign HQ. If indeed the swing votes are well targeted, the present projection of Federal incumbency will swing decisively away from Ms Benazir.

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