The Countdown Begins
The Caretaker PM, Mr. Moeenuddin Qureshi, has given as his first priority the conduct of free and fair elections. With 70 days to go the polls for the National Assembly, the Countdown may have started but electioneering has not yet commenced in earnest. Despite that we are much further advanced today in the pre-election process than we were on May 26 when the Supreme Court scuttled the July 14 date set by Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Co, which only goes to show that there is much more confidence about the elections of October 6 being held in comparison to the July 14 date. One must also state that the present Caretaker arrangement inspires confidence about their neutrality as opposed to the Supreme Court-terminated Balakh Sher arrangement which was clearly partial.
While elections are certainly a priority, the first priority remains the economy. Because of the prolonged state of limbo, Pakistan’s economy has been under severe pressure. The uncertainty has added to nervousness among potential investors thereby knocking down the sequence of events that was to lead us towards economic amelioration. Inflow of investment is the main prop for bolstering the economy during the state of transition. To cater for the shortfall, PM Moeen Qureshi will certainly ask his friends in the World Bank and IMF for international aid to start flowing immediately. One feels that he would do better by asking for a Debt Moratorium/Debt rescheduling for a three-year period. The policy of liberalisation has meant the removal of bureaucratic controls in order to attract investors to a free economy. Unfortunately investors have stayed away due to the political instability but the free economy environment and its lack of checks and curbs has created an adverse economic imbalance to the detriment of Pakistan. Our foreign exchange reserves have dwindled alarmingly. Massive devaluation by India had already effectively undercut our major export earners, cotton textiles, the hiatus in early reaction has contributed to taking us to the verge of economic apocalypse.
While devaluation was necessary, political governments are usually shy in taking this unpopular decision because it would have been seen as an adverse reflection on their economic performance. It was left to Economist Prime Minister Moeen Qureshi to swallow the bitter pill immediately or face a relentless pressure on the overvalued Pakistani Rupee in the immediate future, resulting in a prolonged instability of the Rupee. Ms Benazir has done a quick one-two by criticising the action of the Caretaker Government while blaming it on the economic policies of the IJI Government. While it was certainly less than prudent about its penchant for massive public spending, the Nawaz Sharif Government had been kept unstable by a combination of Ghulam Ishaq Khan & Co, Ms Benazir, etc for nearly six months before its ultimate demise. In between a 38-day PPP-supported Caretaker period had also not taken any initiative economically. Before advising the Dissolution of the National Assembly, the Nawaz Sharif government had laid down a 30 percent margin for opening LCs for imports in order to curb lavish imports and thus stop over trading. Both the economic measures are prudent and meant to stabilize the situation from becoming worse, certain hardships will have to be faced but an economic tailspin was looming if we did not take immediate corrective steps.
There is a period of about 15-20 days or so remaining before the election campaign is activated by the political parties. In the meantime, both the major parties are involved in low-level political activity looking at organisational problems and possible election alliances. As a result there is every likelihood of a straight one-on-one fight between the IJI and PPP on many of the seats. Because the general public perception is that he has been subjugated to injustice, an early election tends to favour Nawaz Sharif. An election delayed till Jan-Feb 94 (or afterward) may tilt in favour of Ms Benazir Bhutto as the PML lacks the basic strength of the grass-roots organisation that PPP has and the present Nawaz Sharif-euphoria among the masses will eventually tend to subside.
The PPP remains the most potent party in Pakistan. It has excellent organisation in all the provinces and in that respect it is truly national in character bringing together the disparate races and ethnic communities into one melting pot. The structural entity and organisational guidelines laid down by Mr. J.A. Rahim, the first Secretary General of the Party, still stands them in good stead more than two decades later despite the fact that almost none of the original few who founded the Party are alive or are still members of the Party. In the first instance, the charisma that cloaked the late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto has descended upon her daughter. Secondly, she has built up a considerable following of her own due to her own charisma and capabilities. Lastly, the Party has given tremendous sacrifices while remaining out in the cold for extended periods. Over the years more of its workers have died, been injured or undergone jail periods for the Party cause than all the other political groupings combined. From time to time, the Party has suffered artificially induced desertion (like during late Gen Zia’s or late Jam Sadiq’s time) but one of the setbacks it has suffered is that over the past several years a number of its ideological hard-core among the political hierarchy have said goodbye to the Party.
In Punjab, the PPP has a vast diehard-following, a core of support that is enviable. In the last elections, it should have got 15-20 more seats in the Province than it did, bringing it much closer to the IJI total. In the event, the public perception about electoral misfortune in the NA elections along with a fair bit of vote tampering caused a virtual rout in the ensuing PA elections. This is one of the reasons why Ms Benazir wants polls on one day for both the NA and the PA. For the record the PPP has twice lost the elections for the Punjab Assembly and despite the promise of a much improved showing over 1990, may do so again. With marginal help from the Chattha League (Chattha himself may lose his seat), it can fare much better than in the last two elections but it has to have the support of other smaller parties to form the Provincial government. In the presence of Jahangir Badar as President Punjab PPP it certainly has no such chance. This would be reversed if a more mature, credible person was the PPP Provincial Chief, a person like Aitzaz Ahsan would make a formidable opponent to IJI. The PPP has the potential of cobbling together the largest bloc of votes in the NA and may thus be in a position to form a workable majority to make the Federal Government. In NWFP Aftab Sherpao faces an uphill task in the NA and the PA, with or without Chattha-ites. In Sindh it can form a government easily but without the urban-based MQM, can the PPP rule? Despite their present mutual reservation, a post election PPP-MQM Alliance is possible. In Balochistan it will have its usual handful of seats in both the NA and the PA.
Nawaz Sharif’s biggest setback since 1990 was the wholesale defection of Chattha-Mir Afzal-Wattoo followers from the League. While PML may have more than made up because of the raw chord that Nawaz Sharif has evoked among the masses but the cracking of the organisational structure will be difficult to repair in so short a time. Some marginal PML seats are gone for the foreseeable future. Historically the PML always have had so many defections that it has never really successfully created a strong grass-roots organisation. It has always managed to overcome this inherent weakness because of weak opponents. Unfortunately for PML, Ms Benazir is not a weak opponent and at this incipient early stage of the campaign the PPP have a high ground because they are more poll-oriented than the PML.
At the moment, because of the “Lota” syndrome, Punjab is a toss-up at best. By opting for Pervez Elahi rather than Wyne, Nawaz Sharif has corrected one major anomaly but it could perhaps be too late. It may work to make the Provincial Government, may fall short of the necessary votes for the Federal Government. There is no doubt that there is a hard-core of PML, particularly in the rural areas, but this can only be translated into a majority coalition if more than a handful of seats are won in the urban areas. Support from JI is vital, possibly in an election alliance but given the present JI stance this may not be forthcoming. In the NWFP, PML can cobble together a successful workable majority with an election alliance with the ANP. In Sindh the PML will get a handful of seats if it comes to a working arrangement with Pir Pagara. In Balochistan, it will at best get its traditional small bag of seats.
Both the major political groupings look to get about 80-90 seats each in the NA with the balance going to smaller parties. In the circumstances, whoever gets an alliance with the MQM will make the Federal Government as was done in 1988 and 1990. The present scenario looks to be a PPP Government in the Centre, IJI Provincial Governments in the Punjab and NWFP, a PPP Government in Sindh and a PPP supported government in Balochistan. Given this scenario, a dialogue between Nawaz Sharif and Ms Benazir is necessary to lay down the ground rules for the elections and a possible working arrangement post-elections. Failure to resolve this would mean an impasse which would be fatal for the Federation. As stated earlier, a delay in the election will certainly benefit Ms Benazir and despite PPP’s rhetoric otherwise, their pre-campaign strategy would be to have Polls later than earlier. In the meantime, the election clock is ticking away to a historic political confrontation that will take us well on our way politically into the 21st century.
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