Accountability
The Morality of Floor Crossing
The fundamental unit of any democracy is the individual voter. In voting for any candidate, the primary concern of the literate voter is usually the message the candidate is promising the electorate followed by the personality of the candidate. In countries where ignorance has a preponderance over literacy, it is usually the other way around giving truth to the GK Chesterton saying, “Democracy means government by the uneducated, while aristocracy means government by the badly uneducated”. Populist leaders on the pattern of late Z.A. Bhutto usually manage to make a useful mix of their personalities and their message as combined contributory factors for their electability. Bhutto’s campaign slogan, “Roti, Kapra aur Makan” was as much the theme song of his pledges as was the force of his personality. In theory, therefore, the individual candidate should be voted on the strength of his own attributes in preference to Party considerations, this is confirmed by the evidence of the voting pattern where candidates in various constituencies have to face voters having differing preferences. In contrast to preference due to his (or her) personality, in third world countries voters prefer a straight Party line based on their inclination towards a Party leader (and promises made). In the case of independents, they are voted in on individual preferences rather than any ideological Party line and as such there is no moralizing about the pattern of their vote which would be based on their personal inclination. To give one example of a Party having sway over individual personalities, the MQM swept the elections in the urban areas of Sindh in 1988 on a slate of virtually faceless candidates but both the PPP and PML relied on a combination of the strength of the individual candidates as much as voter preference for their respective Parties, the Party remaining synonymous with Ms Benazir’s leadership in the case of PPP. In 1988, 1990 and in 1993, Ms Benazir’s political charisma contributed to the individual’s victory, particularly in Sindh. The same phenomenon became true of Mian Nawaz Sharif in 1993.
The Return of MQ Prime Minister-in-Waiting?
Former Caretaker PM Moeen Qureshi, flew into Pakistan in the early hours of April 14, 1994, almost 6 months to the day after he handed over power to the elected PM, Ms Benazir Bhutto. For those addicted to conspiracy theories, his visit seems to have been synchronized with that of US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott as well as carefully orchestrated to invite attention. It raises a pertinent question, what is MQ doing here at this time? For the Ms Benazir regime, this is certainly not a happy period. Given that a very bad precedent had been set in July 1993 for future Constitutional sleight-of-hands by forcing out an elected PM who commanded a substantial Parliamentary majority, speculation is rife that MQ is here to personally gauge the situation and if the political environment is conducive for a “national” government, indicate to the powers-that-be his availability to be of service to Pakistan in taking our chestnuts out of the ever-spreading quagmire. Unlike last time, when his credentials were only that of an international technocrat and he was an unknown quantity to the public-at-large in the field of governing third world countries, MQ’s Curriculum Vitae (CV) is now much more credible for any concerted sales effort by vested interests. Whether anyone likes it or not, there are many in this country who believe that an interim period of national government is necessary and for them MQ remains a very distinct possibility as a PM in-waiting. It is also true that no political government can survive a nuclear “rollback”, at least publicly, MQ has no such problem in delivering.
Less than 180 days after MQ handed over the reins to Ms Benazir, Pakistan is in much deeper trouble economically, politically, socially and externally than when he took over from Mian Nawaz Sharif. Some of Pakistan’s problems were inherited by Ms Benazir as they were inherited by Mian Nawaz Sharif before her. To cast a broad brush in apportioning blame on PPP alone would not be fair, however on one important count Ms Benazir’s PPP surpasses Mian Nawaz Sharif’s PML (N) by miles, most of her problems are either self-created or occasioned out of designed neglect. Caretaker PM Moeen Qureshi stemmed the rot that arose out of the civilian coup that had paralysed the Federal Government. By the time he left the country was on its way to a more or less stable economic condition with hopes for building adequate foreign exchange reserves. The present situation may not be one of extreme economic apprehension despite the fact that the price of atta is slowly edging past the reach of the common urbanite. However, it is nowhere as rosy as the government’s rhetoric presents. On paper, the country’s foreign exchange reserves has gone up to US$ 1.9 billion, unfortunately it seems the same bureaucrats who served Mian Nawaz Sharif “loyally” do not seem to be informing the PM that almost US$ 1.5 billion of these so-called “Reserves” are short term borrowings by different government and semi-government corporations. To test MQ’s intellectual honesty, one could well ask this technocrat what is his analysis of the state of country’s present foreign exchange reserves?
Divided, We Shall Fall
The germs of the whole range of present day crisis were really laid about 500 days ago with the failure of Ms Benazir’s first Long March in November 1992, the facts thereafter being so well-known that it serves useful purpose in referring to the salient features only. That was the symbolic high watermark from where we have been reduced to the dire straits that we find ourselves today. It would be macabre humour to put it down to poetic justice that Ms Benazir’s government has to face the present travails affecting the country in the sense that “those who sow the wind shall reap the whirlwind”. However, Nawaz Sharif’s government must also take its share of blame, having dispersed the Long Marchers Mian Nawaz Sharif did not take heed of the warning signals and made only half-hearted moves for rapprochement with the then Opposition. As this scribe wrote in THE NATION in November 1992, he chose to become like “the wind which cannot read”. While it is true that one must negotiate from a position of strength, once our leaders feel omnipotent their penchant is to shun negotiations. Ms Benazir does not seem to have learnt this lesson. How wise were Rome’s leaders who would place a man at Caesar’s shoulders even while he was triumphantly basking in the accolades of a hero-worshipping crowd, to repeatedly intone, “Remember, thou art mortal”!
On the eve of our 38th Republic Day, most of the wide range of problems we are facing have come to a head in reaching crisis proportions. The foundations of our economic woes were laid by the artificial limbo created by GIK to perpetuate his own rule, he held the nation hostage to his own ambitions. Till November 1992, Pakistan was moving pell mell towards economic emancipation, the flood devastation of Sept-Oct 92 and certain enthusiastic but questionable schemes of the Mian Nawaz Sharif Regime notwithstanding. The death of then COAS, Gen Asif Nawaz, was the first precursor of things to come. In short, by April 1993, the economic gains of the past two years had been brought to a jarring halt. The worsening political climate dampened, the boom climate necessary to attract the continued inflow of the massive input of foreign investment that would keep the economic locomotive humming. There was a virtual hiatus till the Moeen Qureshi Caretaker Administration took over but the Caretaker Government was hamstrung by the limited period of their reign and their non-elected status. The seeds of their non-success, if not failure lay in the public perception that their rule was temporary. Even then, one must commend Moeen Qureshi for a number of initiatives, marred only by his Administration’s studied tilt for the PPP in an election which was to have been played on neutral ground. In an holier-than-thou stance, then acting President Wasim Sajjad did nothing to ensure that the playing field remained even for his party. However, this underdog status suited Mian Nawaz Sharif politically, who by the end of the election campaign had become the first political person in more than two decades to not only stem the PPP floodwaters but give the populace of Pakistan the first genuine political alternative to the Bhuttos, late father, daughter and (now) Prodigal Son.
Time Out
PM Ms Benazir Bhutto has recently offered unconditional cooperation to the Opposition provided they agree to give up confrontational politics. She seemed to be generally mystified as to what the Opposition hoped to achieve by pursuing its present course of agitation, forgetting her own trailblazer role from Day One of the Nawaz Sharif regime in bringing down the then elected government. On the other hand, saner elements within the Opposition have counselled their own leadership to avoid the roller-coaster road of opposition for the sake of opposition lest it became a violent confrontation fatal for democracy. Even if the government of the day is brought down, what is the surety that it would be replaced by another democratic alternative? Such a situation would be tailor-made for adventurists and/or their frontmen third forces. The same day that platonic thoughts were being aired about by the PM, the residence of Mushahid Hussain was being raided to apprehend that famous “terrorist”, Khalil Malik, who going by the number of policemen employed for the operation, seems to be a combination of Carlos and Pablo Escobar with a little bit of Che Guevera thrown in for good measure. Since our agile policemen had scaled the roof of his house to take up position for several hours, one can well understand the trauma of the whole episode for Mushahid’s family. Not to say that the beating up of Azhar Sohail, Editor of Daily Pakistan, by his own staffers, which had occasioned this ham-handed retaliation, was anything less unsavoury. However, one outrage cannot be set right by another, except off course if civilization degenerates back to medieval feudalism with its Machiavellian overtones.
Money and Power
The three major reasons for the deterioration of the financial institutions in Pakistan are (1) nationalisation (2) dependence of both the government and the private sector for liquidity exclusively on the banking system and (3) pre-emption of substantial part of the credit by the government. A myriad number of smaller inter-locking factors have contributed to the decline of the credibility of financial institutions in Pakistan but most can be traced back to these aforementioned over-riding reasons.
Two major concerns led to the nationalisation of the banks in the early 70s by the first PPP regime. Of primary concern was the fact that control of finances of the country interfacing with that of assets were in the hands of a very small minority. The other reason was that the priority sectors were neglected inasmuch social and even economic development were not supported by credit allocation viz, agriculture, small industries corporation, transportation, construction, etc. Money was concentrated in the urban areas at a severe cost to the rural areas. A great bulk of the credit was going to industry and trade which claimed about 67% of the credit given to the private sector with only the balance 33% going to the rest of the private sector economy.
Gunfight at the OK Corral
The Birth Anniversary of late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto the founder-Chairman of PPP, was celebrated with some fervour by his heirs and their supporters, principally in Larkana and at his gravesite nearby in Garhi Khuda Baksh. If he had been alive, the late lamented leader would probably have wished that the fireworks display would have been of the non-lethal kind and better targeted in the air than at each other between his surviving siblings. At least three innocent people lost their lives in the firefight between the police and Murtaza supporters including a policeman on duty who died a lingering death due to a bullet-inflicted stomach wound. What had been taken universally as a stage-managed farce in continuation of the drama (the incarceration of Mir Murtaza Bhutto) played out to placate the doubts of those who were turned off at the Prodigal Son’s terrorist connections (Al-Zulfikar, RAW, etc) has suddenly turned deathly serious. The entire exercise may or may not have been a “Noora Kushti” meant to distance the PPP hierarchy from the terrorist overtones acquired by extremists among the Party elements over the Martial Law years, the initiation of a cycle of bloodletting has created new dynamics, unleashing demons lower down the pecking order that may run totally out of control. Others may revel in the never ending misadventures of the Bhutto family as regards familial peace and harmony but this is a continuing tragedy that must come to an end. For the sake of the Bhutto family and the Pakistan Peoples Party, sane counsel must prevail to terminate this insanity. While the functioning of the government may not have come to a standstill, it has certainly been severely affected to the detriment of the people of Pakistan. Despite her personal travails (and possible anguish), Ms Benazir has managed an extremely brave front, essentially remaining a class act.
The Cracks Widen
For the first few weeks after coming to Federal power, the Ms Benazir government could do no wrong. Instead of rushing into many things at one time, it adopted a more deliberate posture. While its authority in the Sindh Assembly was undeniable, the PPP-PML (J) combine increased its majority in Punjab to make a comfortable government. The PPP masterpiece was the process leading up to the election of Farooq Ahmad Khan Leghari as President. In contrast to this high point, the PML (N) Opposition touched its lowest ebb, the final desperate offers of the Presidential candidacy to all comers gave the impression of desperation and total disarray. Yet ten weeks into what should be an unquestioned rule, the PPP is caught up in a series of self-created problems as well as the impossibility of governing a country like Pakistan by adopting the safe course of status quo and survive, more so when the intelligentsia and the people have got used to the dynamism and movement of constant initiatives and change which was the hallmark of the Nawaz Sharif regime. Even the caretaker regime of Moeen Qureshi recognised this. While frenetic activity by itself may not necessarily mean development and progress, the general public tends to have a positive view of their leaders as striving hard on their behalf for economic emancipation. The psychology of public perception drives Third World populations rather than any acknowledged fact, therefore, any government that shows indications of inactivity, indeed of apathy in letting some widely hailed ordinances lapse, may soon find itself in deep trouble.
Initial Reviews
The visible primary difference between Caretaker and elected governments is that being unaccountable to the people and with no lasting commitment to the nation, the MQ Regime could enact any number of reforms and give forth any number of pledges in the comfortable knowledge that neither were these strictures binding on the successor government nor were they answerable to anybody. In a space of 90 days, a sophisticated image building exercise raised the expectations of the people, this was bound to become an albatross for any elected government in comparison. What was conveniently left unsaid was that though every elected government may have similar ambitions they are constrained in the implementation of their promised policies post-election by political realities.
Having been in business only about 45 days or so, Ms Benazir Regime should not be expected to conjure up any economic miracles. Furthermore, economic initiatives seldom make immediate headway towards their objectives even though measures that seem punitive will always get an instantaneous antagonistic response in the streets. Most of the “dirty work” as regards imposing additional limitation at the behest of the IMF had already been done by the MQ Administration, but the additional conditionalities agreed to by MQ is unfairly shackling the present incumbent for a three-year period. For the record, the revenues acquired by the extra MQ measures of taxation are projected at almost Rs 10 billion, an almost 50% backbreaking increase on the Rs 20 billion proposed and voted for in the annual Federal Budget guided through by the then Federal Finance Minister Senator Sartaj Aziz. Many more IMF conditionalities were accepted by the MQ Regime than were by former Finance Minister Sartaj Aziz in April 1993 but the IMF has still not released the Standby Facilities. In effect the IMF has conned us into a three year captivity without giving anything in return and now want more from the Bhutto Regime. The quality of life of our citizens will thus deteriorate further as their spending power decreases. In hindsight we should not have let IMF-pensioner MQ negotiate with his parent institution. Further the tax burden should have been better focussed towards the higher income group.
The First Cracks
Whose of us who were inclined to believe that this is a new PPP regime, chastened by their first experience at bad governance, determined to do good by their country, now see the first tell-tale signs appear on the edifice. While it is too early to render dire predictions of things likely to happen, there are certain indications in that direction which cannot go unnoticed and which seem to build up into a comprehensive design of wheels within a wheel, not divorced from the making of a quick buck. One does not see the blatant and ham-handed modus operandi of the first tenure, the perception of a hungry child wolfing down too much all at once, this time around the operating procedure seems to be much more suave and sophisticated. This is very much in keeping with the cunning of the brilliant election campaign against Mian Nawaz Sharif, a battle of the PPP’s organisation machine against the raw popularity among the masses of a basically untested political entity, where a dead heat in the number of votes cast (with a slight edge to the PML(N) and its allies) among the popular vote has been subsequently (and superbly) transformed into an electoral rout. While it does not reflect the political reality on the ground and does call into question the credibility of the democratic process as is being practiced in this country, it is now very much a fait accompli.
Governments are made or unmade on the policies that it annunciates and the way it goes about implementing them. However, what matters above all is the choice of individuals who will carry the torch. For the record, based on their respective manifestoes, there is no fundamental disagreement in the policies of the Government and the Opposition, the difference would be more in form of execution of these policies and the level of emphasis thereof rather than the substance. To implement its policies, the government has to employ people that it trusts and has confidence in, at the same time they should have a reputation for honesty and integrity. Above all, they must be free from controversies that are likely to hamper the intentions and objectives of the government. One important thing to note is that wrongdoing can only be attempted when key players are motivated by rampant greed or owe loyalty to individuals over and above the loyalty that they should owe to the institution that they are responsible for.
The Buck Stops Here
In the National Assembly elections on Oct 6, the PPP (along with its PML(J) allies) had obtained a comfortable lead over PML(N) and its allies but not resounding enough for an absolute majority. The subsequent Provincial elections on Oct 9 saw PPP get an overwhelming success in its Sindh stronghold, a slender lead (along with its allies) in Punjab but conceding majority to PML(N) (and its allies) in Sarhad and Balochistan. Since our people tend to worship only the rising sun, the election of the NA Speaker (and later of the PM) clearly indicated that the sign of the times was that the PPP was slowly but surely gaining strength. This perception was force-multiplied when the PML(N) failed to get a single independent or minority member in the Punjab. However, both in Sarhad and Balochistan, the PML(N) and its allies succeeded in forming governments with the help of independents and others. The stage was thus set for the Presidential elections.
Analysing this scenario, it would have been expected of the PML(N) to go for a consensus with PPP in the matter of the choice of President. With PPP firmly in the saddle and having proved its majority, Ms Benazir could have sat back and coasted home. However, Ms Benazir was faced with three major problems, viz. (1) the advent of GIK into the Presidential race asking for the proverbial pound of flesh (2) the candidacies of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan threatened to draw crucial votes away in a possible one-on-one race and (3) the seeming refusal of PML(N) to consider any candidate except one from among its own list thereby negating the concept of consensus or compromise.