The Buck Stops Here
In the National Assembly elections on Oct 6, the PPP (along with its PML(J) allies) had obtained a comfortable lead over PML(N) and its allies but not resounding enough for an absolute majority. The subsequent Provincial elections on Oct 9 saw PPP get an overwhelming success in its Sindh stronghold, a slender lead (along with its allies) in Punjab but conceding majority to PML(N) (and its allies) in Sarhad and Balochistan. Since our people tend to worship only the rising sun, the election of the NA Speaker (and later of the PM) clearly indicated that the sign of the times was that the PPP was slowly but surely gaining strength. This perception was force-multiplied when the PML(N) failed to get a single independent or minority member in the Punjab. However, both in Sarhad and Balochistan, the PML(N) and its allies succeeded in forming governments with the help of independents and others. The stage was thus set for the Presidential elections.
Analysing this scenario, it would have been expected of the PML(N) to go for a consensus with PPP in the matter of the choice of President. With PPP firmly in the saddle and having proved its majority, Ms Benazir could have sat back and coasted home. However, Ms Benazir was faced with three major problems, viz. (1) the advent of GIK into the Presidential race asking for the proverbial pound of flesh (2) the candidacies of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan threatened to draw crucial votes away in a possible one-on-one race and (3) the seeming refusal of PML(N) to consider any candidate except one from among its own list thereby negating the concept of consensus or compromise.
Mussolini’s son-in-law Count Ciano is credited with saying, “victory has a hundred fathers but defeat is an orphan”. In analysing the resounding success of PPP’s Sardar Farooq Khan Leghari, one can lay out a number of correct decisions taken by Ms Bhutto and her inner circle of advisors and a virtual plethora of wrong turns by Mian Nawaz Sharif and his strategic planners. Even while convinced of an absolute majority, Ms Bhutto was embarked on a frenetic campaign to ensure PPP success by trying to garner together a broad coalition. On the other hand, though they well knew that they were behind, the PML(N) attempts to woo potential allies were pathetic, it seemed their strategy was based on expecting them to fall into line on the basis of the “anyone but” ploy that was used effectively in 1988 and 1990 to balance out Ms Benazir’s strength. This time around this modus operandi got a very short shrift. One can talk about the strategic and tactical mistakes made till one gets blue in the face but it would be more appropriate to lay out a few words of advice viz. (1) as a national leader, Mian Nawaz Sharif must get out from the “Model Town” syndrome i.e. excessive reliance on a Lahori view of the world (2) as a proven election potential, he must become available for inter-action with a broader section of his supporters and not rely on a few cronies to plan out and implement strategic and tactical ploys (3) stubbornness a la Quaid-e-Azam can only be displayed on points of principle that are a matter of life and death in politics, one’s doors should always be kept open for friend and foe alike lest one gets isolated, i.e. in politics one must never make inveterate friends or inveterate enemies (4) Advisors should be chosen with care, there being a difference between those who will dare tell you the truth to your face even though it may be bitter and the courtier-kind who will only act as cheerleaders. After the strong electoral performance given by the PML(N), it is amazing that they should now be so politically isolated that only the ANP is left in its support. The Quaid-e-Azam could be quite intractable but his was a commanding personality dealing with stakes that were not only difficult but much higher. Mian Nawaz Sharif has not been cornered by his opponents, his close friends and confidantes have much to answer for (rather than the mass of his genuine supporters) for putting him out into the cold.
Mian Nawaz Sharif’s present travails should not take anything away from what has been a magnificent victory for Ms Benazir Bhutto. There is no greater achievement than in learning from one’s mistakes. When Ms Bhutto first began her journey to the PM’s post back in 1986, she was overwhelmed by the crowds that greeted her. In short she discarded everyone in the premise that she could go it alone, this was the cardinal blunder on which the IJI was founded (and on which the PML(N) has now floundered). Though victorious in 1988 Ms Benazir soon became isolated, it then became only a matter of time and patience to cut her down to size. This time around, she has been impressive in diligently pursuing even the single victory vote, rewarding allies with her time and more materially, with prized appointments and promises that she can keep. Unlike yesteryear, she has not taken the “royal” route making herself available to lobby personally for the PPP. It is not surprising that except for the JI which has gone into a “King Lear-type” of withdrawal, only the ANP is left more or less of the original IJI, the others are all sitting with Ms Bhutto. In her most potent democratic moment, she refused to concede the Presidential post to the Establishment, standing steadfast despite the most severe political pressure from her own flanks. Helped no end by the glaring blunders committed by the PML(N), she has come out more than trumps. Sardar Farooq Khan Leghari is an infinitely better proposition than GIK, Balakh Sher Mazari, Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan and Nawab Akbar Bugti, in that order. In the cold light of day, even as the disappointment about Wasim Sajjad’s loss begins to wear off, the PML(N) will no doubt come to the conclusion that Leghari will make a fine President. He is an honest man, known for his integrity and maturity. As he has repeatedly stated, he is the President of the whole country and ceases to be only a PPP person. Mian Sahib would do well to take him on his word, giving the President time to come to terms with the trappings and authority of his office.
Having finally achieved the impossible, i.e. a more than sympathetic person in the Presidential palace, Ms Bhutto will do well to realize that the buck has now finally stopped at her desk. While she did have the necessary votes in the NA, the surprising 50-38 plurality in the Senate means that her legislative agenda is now right on track. With the Presidency, NA and Senate in line, there are no more grounds for vacillation or excuse on any count. Without the nod of the superior military hierarchy, or at least the important “triumvirate” within that closed club, none of her democratic success would have been possible. As such the “troika” has been converted into a “diarchy” with the military as an approving partner rather than being a potential antagonist, at least till interference drives the twain apart. With all systems go, she can embark on a sustained programme to implement all the promises she has made. On issues of constitutional importance e.g. the repeal or amendment of the 8th Amendment, the restoration of women’s seats in the Assemblies, etc the Opposition will either have to come in line or provide cogent reasons for not doing so. In effect, Ms Benazir is where she wanted to be if she were to positively effect the lives of all Pakistanis, almost an absolute mistress of all that she surveys.
It can be a lonely existence at the top of the roost, it is a happy coincidence that Asif Zardari seems to have come of age politically at the right time. From being an Achilles heel of some standing, his two years stint in Landhi Jail has turned him around to being a political asset best seen in the political negotiations leading upto President Leghari’s victory. One must not take the credit away from his contribution and no doubt he will continue to play a larger-than-life role in PPP politics. There is a fine line here between the acquisition of authority and the abuse of power, Asif Zardari will have to tread that grey area with care, particularly keeping his many friends in harness lest they try to muscle in where their presence is not much appreciated (or tolerable). Too much has been gained and too much is at stake to repeat the mistakes of the past because of a few greedy cronies without any commitment to the party or the country. With his new found maturity and political sagacity, one does not see Asif Zardari reverting to that best-forgotten period.
In the end, all will depend upon the oft-repeated commitment that Ms Benazir has to the people of Pakistan. Neither her late father nor she (in her first term as PM) had the same democratic mandate that she has managed to cobble together now. She has a large enough agenda on her plate to keep her quite busy for some time, pledges made and promises to keep. To sustain her will is the supreme confidence that she exudes in her own destiny. On November 20, 1992 she was on the receiving end of the staves of the Administration, today the flailing of those stick-ends await her command. While one learns lessons from one’s defeats, one has to be careful in victory. As much as Mian Nawaz Sharif emerged all-powerful after destroying the first “Long March”, destiny has turned the tables to similarly make Ms Benazir triumphant a year later. In ignoring the portent of the times and dealing from a position of strength, Mian Nawaz Sharif chose to become like the wind which cannot read. As much as the buck stops at her desk, she must learn to judiciously read the signs of the times.
Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.
Comments
No comments yet.
Leave a comment