The Cracks Widen
For the first few weeks after coming to Federal power, the Ms Benazir government could do no wrong. Instead of rushing into many things at one time, it adopted a more deliberate posture. While its authority in the Sindh Assembly was undeniable, the PPP-PML (J) combine increased its majority in Punjab to make a comfortable government. The PPP masterpiece was the process leading up to the election of Farooq Ahmad Khan Leghari as President. In contrast to this high point, the PML (N) Opposition touched its lowest ebb, the final desperate offers of the Presidential candidacy to all comers gave the impression of desperation and total disarray. Yet ten weeks into what should be an unquestioned rule, the PPP is caught up in a series of self-created problems as well as the impossibility of governing a country like Pakistan by adopting the safe course of status quo and survive, more so when the intelligentsia and the people have got used to the dynamism and movement of constant initiatives and change which was the hallmark of the Nawaz Sharif regime. Even the caretaker regime of Moeen Qureshi recognised this. While frenetic activity by itself may not necessarily mean development and progress, the general public tends to have a positive view of their leaders as striving hard on their behalf for economic emancipation. The psychology of public perception drives Third World populations rather than any acknowledged fact, therefore, any government that shows indications of inactivity, indeed of apathy in letting some widely hailed ordinances lapse, may soon find itself in deep trouble.
The Punjab is essentially one big headache for the PPP. The expediency of making the government meant that the PPP surrendered its sizeable majority (almost six times that of its junior partner at the altar of convenience. Wattoo now rules the roost in his own peculiar feudally autocratic and Machiavellian way. The more Wattoo insists that he has no differences with Syed Faisal Hayat, his PPP appointed shadow, the sharper is the focus on the differences. The Government of Punjab today resembles more or less a rotten apple, held aloft more by Mian Nawaz Sharif’s stubbornness in not compromising with the Wattoo-ites than by the PPP strength. The more sordid among the wild rumours about irreconcilable differences between the PPP and PML (J) may be rather exaggerated but the initiative rests with the PML (N). Their leaders must understand that compromise is the essence of political pragmatism, not than an allied Wattoo would be less of a headache to PML (N).
The handling of Mir Murtaza by the PPP high command, and more importantly Nusrat Bhutto, has been rather amateurish. Symbolism is very high in PPP culture, late Z.A. Bhutto’s birth and death anniversaries are occasions for the dissenters to flex their muscles. Since both Ms Benazir and Mir Murtaza are claimants to be the rightful heirs of their late father, politically and materially, PPP seems headed for a violent split on Z.A. Bhutto’s death anniversary. In a no-win situation both seem to have logic on their sides and as such do not seem to be in any mood to compromise. Ostensibly, the prize at stake, the leadership of the PPP, makes their position intractable, outside observers seem to think that more material matters are dividing them than meet the casual eye, including the division of the family assets in Pakistan and abroad. Every mother wants her son to succeed the father, in that Nusrat Bhutto is not without her own feudal reasons. However, given Ms Benazir’s long years of sacrifice and her obvious charisma mean that even without the legacy of late Z. A. Bhutto, she is very much a leader in her own right. While issues may not be entirely irreconcilable at the family level, lower down in the ranks the persistence of the differences has become an emotive issue between diehard loyalists and those whom they consider Johnny-come-lately opportunists. Further complicating the issue is the violent inter-fighting between the factions of the Youth Wing which has claimed a few lives. The issue of Mir Murtaza’s place in the PPP’s sun may be resolved amicably eventually but the wounds that have been inflicted will fester long after. The PPP is under some pressure from both external and internal forces to prove its claim that it is the only national party with ready answers for the nuclear proliferation issue and Kashmir. While it is true that a better dialogue is possible between the USA and the Ms Benazir government than with the Nawaz Sharif regime, the opening up of US economic and military aid to Pakistan has no priority in the list of its world agendas. Whether or not the Pressler Amendment bites the dust, unless Zhirinovsky creates greater waves in Russia and thus becomes a potential danger to US interests in this region, the pipeline will remain very much frozen as long as the US Congress believes that Pakistan’s nuclear programme has not only been capped, it has been firmly rolled back. Since this “rollback” is not likely without exciting patriotic fervour in the streets as well as among those who wear a uniform, a potential Catch-22 situation exists. Today, the Armed Forces hierarchy continue to believe that Ms Benazir’s credibility in Western quarters will allow critical arms, equipment and spares supply to be revived in spite of the Pressler Amendment. If that eventuality remains a fantasy, the raison d’etre for the PPP regime’s existence may become a luxury that those who matter may feel that this country can no longer afford. Similarly, India’s agreement to talks on Kashmir is not so much out of a genuine desire to find a solution to Indo-Pak problems but to ease the international pressure on India because of the blatant human rights violations. Indeed the talks tend to exacerbate differences between the various freedom-fighter factions as well as the Pakistan-based Kashmir leaders, they also resemble the well-known measured Indian ploy of talking without reason, an old strategy for filibustering that is not conducive to any final settlement of disputes. One was taken aback by Sardar Assef Ali’s “last time” ultimatum, if India calls the bluff we will be left up the diplomatic creek without a paddle as they tar and feather us for being “warmongers”. There is no doubt that the Indians are more comfortable with a PPP leadership in Pakistan, whether they are willing or in a position to concede any ground to sustain that leadership in power is another matter. On our north-western borders, the bankrupt policy on Afghanistan is a result of the ISI’s ham-handed policies during Ms Benazir’s first rule. A whole pack of Afghan war veterans of Pakistani origin were sent home unceremoniously and inexperienced hands placed at the controls, the result is that Afghanistan continues to haemorrhage as all sides lay approbation on Pakistan quite contrary to our tremendous sacrifices over the years. Sardar Assef Ali has had his visit to Kabul cancelled twice as one-time foes Gulbadin Hikmatyar and Rashid Dostum join up to engage President Rabbani’s forces in Kabul from two directions. As the civil war intensifies one fact emerges, the situation is so bad that there is, in fact, no clear-cut Pakistani policy to implement on Afghanistan. One cannot doubt that there is potential for a political spillover into Pakistan.
Even nature seems to be engaged in a relentless conspiracy against Pakistan and by extension, against the Ms Benazir regime. The fact that the rains have not come on time is a catastrophe that is likely to have serious consequences in the coming months. Our farmers depend upon their daily food for what they sow and harvest, selling whatever surplus for their consumption and other needs as well as seeds, fertiliser, etc., for the next sowing season. This time around, they may not even have enough to eat themselves and as famine conditions become worse, there may even be an exodus from the rural to the urban areas, causing economic disruption as well as a law and order environment. To meet the shortages, the government will have to import wheat in large quantities, most likely a huge amount will come under the US PL-480 programme, a bail-out by the US on humanitarian grounds that will not run afoul of Pressler’s Amendment. The foreign exchange spent on extra imports and the loss thereof due to the depletion in exports will add to rampant inflation. It is a fair bet to assume that there will be a further “rollback” of development as the funds dry up. There is no worse nemesis for any government than a hungry populace, failure to cope could be fatal.
The last issue may potentially be the most important. One is rather ambivalent on the subject of Asif Zardari. The last time around he was not in politics but working the lines of governmental power by proxy, in contrast to his last stint as the PM’s husband, this time he comes to the government stage as a political leader of some consequence with the added qualification of being the only PPP leader to suffer the most during Ms Benazir’s period in the political cold. Kept under wraps for the most part of the last election campaign, he has proven to be an asset to the party and to Ms Benazir in the manipulations post-elections leading up to the Presidential sweepstakes. It is impossible to see him adopting either Dennis Thatcher or Tansu Ciller’s husband as role models. In his measure of things he has a political role to play that he deserves to play. In today’s political reality in Pakistan that is an undeniable fact, however, to be logical is not to be always right. There seems to be a growing public antipathy to Asif Zardari seeming to have increasing control of the reins of government. The posting of some Zardari loyalists to certain appointments has added to this perception among the public. His high profile public appearances are increasingly arousing a reaction, this may be totally unjustified but it happens to be a fact of life. Even within the family, brother-in-law Murtaza has not helped by not hiding his dislike or contempt. Nusrat Bhutto has been more circumspect but mutual antagonism cannot remain hidden for long. Among all the cracks to widen, this is the most dangerous. Reason and logic often fail at the altar of public perception, somehow Ms Benazir and Asif Zardari will have to work out a reasonable low profile compromise or suffer the consequences.
Among other qualities that he saw in the present COAS, GIK chose Gen Waheed as an insurance against his downfall. In the same mould President Farooq Ahmad Khan Leghari is known to be an upright person, strong on principles. As much as GIK failed to correctly assess Gen Waheed’s deep-rooted penchant for fairplay and neutrality in comparison to his personal loyalty, it would be fatal for Ms Benazir to take the President of Pakistan for granted. In such a fluid situation, the widening of the cracks could become very ominous indeed.
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