Barbarians at the Gate?

Facing a very serious economic situation internally and beset by the proximity of one externally, Pakistan must be thankful that the rather creditable efforts of the present government as well as the Governor State Bank of Pakistan, has kept us from going under. Kudos are also in order for former President Farooq Leghari, for if he had lacked courage in sending the Bhutto regime packing in late 1996, we could never have survived Zardarinomics — every person in his pocket, every pocket his own — a few more weeks. In the bad economic environment of Asia, economic survival has taken some doing. We may also thank our lucky stars that George Soros probably considers it beneath his contempt to play around with our meagre foreign resources. As for financial analysts, they are no different than weather pundits, how many eulogizing the so-called “Asian Tigers” a year ago predicted the Asian financial crisis? Given that economic forecast, particularly with false or unreliable indicators, is risky business, given that the present global electronic environment where flight of capital takes seconds only is hardly conducive, one thing is very predictable, the leaders of Pakistan have to put in a seven-days-a-week, 24 hours-a-day superhuman effort to escape economic apocalypse. The present 9-to-5 hours-a-day six days-a-week syndrome is hardly conducive to economic amelioration of the masses. Lip-service with flourishes of the ZA Bhutto-type rhetoric will not do, deeds are much more appropriate to the times, as far pragmatic and as much related to the need as possible. A recent presentation to the PM in Zurich by a group of Pakistani financial experts based in the US (who came all the way to Zurich on their own time and expense) brilliantly identified the causes of Pakistan’s economic woes, they also suggested pragmatic remedial measures. Where they got stumped in was in the implementation of the proposals made, that is our greatest failing, a continuing lack of success in executing plans well-laid. And even the plans fall short of being revolutionary, to quote the PM “it will take a revolution, to take us out of this mess”. Mr PM, if the situation leads to anarchy, that may well-bring about a street revolution beyond the means of any government to contain.

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Economic Upturn?

If the boom on the Stock Market and the IMF delegation that was in Pakistan this week are to be believed we are back on the road to economic resurgence, a dramatic reflection of the present government’s economic restructuring drive. Conservative financial analysts do not pay much attention to the price of shares in Pakistan as a good enough economic indicator and the IMF stopped believing the Benazir regime’s fudged statistics since they made it into a state of art, in the presence of stock manipulators and gamblers who have a history of resorting to subterfuges for profit-taking, they prefer to look at the numbers that make up the fiscal deficit, such as the revenues available to meet the current expenditures and the sense of purpose behind structural reforms. However even the most hard-bitten observer will concede that there is momentum which must have origin in conceptually sustainable policies, this has been confirmed by the IMF team which has lauded “the concrete policies of the present backed by political determination”. As we go into the final stretch leading to the celebration of the 50th year since Independence, there is a remarkable parallel in July 1947 to July 1997, on a pro-rata basis that is. Our economic forefathers were then faced with imminent bankruptcy for the fledgling nation, being deprived of their allocated share of funds by British “fairplay”, they had too little in the kitty and too much to pay for. The vast difference in 1997 is that in 1947 in contrast to almost nothing in the areas designated for Pakistan, India had a wide range of medium to heavy industries with a sophisticated infrastructure in support. Pakistan virtually caught up in the 60s till the Bhutto hiccups “one” and “two”, father and daughter’s horrendous economic shortcomings paling before the voracious Zardari appetite for unadulterated greed almost put paid to us economically. In the early 60s, we were a model for more than a decade.

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Back to the Future, with Hope

Four years ago, despite the devastating floods of late 1992, 1993 had started with the hopes of a vast majority of the nation firmly rooted in the promise of economic Valhalla promised by then PM Mian Nawaz Sharif. The death of the COAS Gen Asif Nawaz in the first week of January set loose latent fears and ambitions putting into motion events that saw the exit, return and re-exit of Mian Nawaz Sharif as PM in the space of three months beginning April and ending in July 1993. The year’s end saw the contrived return of Ms. Benazir, the ensuing Zardari dominated nightmare running a full course till her exit as PM less than 60 days ago. In less than a month, the people of Pakistan are to go to the polls and while election fervour is muted because of the constant public refrain for accountability, the masses are gingerly hoping to pick up the threads of the economic aspirations lost four years ago. A crude and early rough poll shows the people’s mandate presently running clearly in Mian Nawaz Sharif’s favour. Having lost considerable ground economically as a nation since 1993, anyone who becomes Pakistan’s PM must first make the nation financially stable before energizing the various economic sectors to the same level as was obtaining then.

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Head-Hunting and the President

Acting on the advice of the Federal Government, President Farooq Khan Leghari suspended the Punjab Government for a period of two months, asking the Governor to assume all powers. A day earlier, all the PPP ministers in CM Manzoor Wattoo’s Provincial Cabinet had resigned as an orchestrated move to create “suitable” conditions to justify Presidential action. While no tears can be shed (without resorting to hypocrisy) for the Wattoo Coalition which was unnatural in the first place and overdue for demise, democracy could have been better served by asking Wattoo to take a “vote of confidence” route or better still, to have moved a vote of no-confidence against him while he was in power. Twice now, the President has used his powers to intercede and interfere in the principle of provincial autonomy by causing the demise of the NWFP and Punjab Governments to facilitate the entry of a PPP-led Coalition Government. Technically within Constitutional parameters, as far as the norms of democracy he is constitutionally pledged to uphold the President stands on rather shaky moral grounds. Another round of manipulation and horse-trading by both major political groupings was set in motion, this shameless exercise denigrates the entire democratic system. While his partiality and judgement can be called into question, the President is a decent human being and he should have adopted a more neutral stance so as not to call his partiality and judgement into question. The President must not forget he was a victim of “Mehrangate”, the scam perpetrated by Mehran Bank’s unscrupulous Younus Habib (remember him?) and others to maliciously defame his character. Haji Nawaz Khokhar, the then PML (N) MNA, was most vociferous in demanding an “egg and tomato” assault on the President in the NA during his address. It was only when he jumped ship and went across to the PPP that it became clear his this “more loyal than the king” cheerleading, ostensibly on behalf of Mian Nawaz Sharif, was part of a master scam devised to dupe (and ensure) that the Opposition remained in confrontation with the President lest his known upright nature lead him to “positive neutrality” as per his Constitutional role. Who was behind this conspiracy? Before those of us led astray by the scam could render an apology of sorts, we were rudely awakened to reality by the Punjab Blitzkrieg led by the Governor, Lt Gen (Retd) Raja (Von) Saroop. Those of us who had seen (and maybe fantasised) about the President becoming independent for the good of Pakistan, have to live with the fact that the widely awaited transition of Leghari from PPP stalwart to being the President of all the peoples of Pakistan has suffered a setback.

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Time Out

PM Ms Benazir Bhutto has recently offered unconditional cooperation to the Opposition provided they agree to give up confrontational politics. She seemed to be generally mystified as to what the Opposition hoped to achieve by pursuing its present course of agitation, forgetting her own trailblazer role from Day One of the Nawaz Sharif regime in bringing down the then elected government. On the other hand, saner elements within the Opposition have counselled their own leadership to avoid the roller-coaster road of opposition for the sake of opposition lest it became a violent confrontation fatal for democracy. Even if the government of the day is brought down, what is the surety that it would be replaced by another democratic alternative? Such a situation would be tailor-made for adventurists and/or their frontmen third forces. The same day that platonic thoughts were being aired about by the PM, the residence of Mushahid Hussain was being raided to apprehend that famous “terrorist”, Khalil Malik, who going by the number of policemen employed for the operation, seems to be a combination of Carlos and Pablo Escobar with a little bit of Che Guevera thrown in for good measure. Since our agile policemen had scaled the roof of his house to take up position for several hours, one can well understand the trauma of the whole episode for Mushahid’s family. Not to say that the beating up of Azhar Sohail, Editor of Daily Pakistan, by his own staffers, which had occasioned this ham-handed retaliation, was anything less unsavoury. However, one outrage cannot be set right by another, except off course if civilization degenerates back to medieval feudalism with its Machiavellian overtones.

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