The Dust Settles, Somewhat
It is only now beginning to dawn on the people of Pakistan that despite themselves they have managed to pull off somewhat of a miracle by not even giving a “heavy” (Mian Nawaz Sharif-type) mandate (10% of the available vote) to any of the political parties. With the Election Commission reporting 40% plus of voting percentage, PML (Q) and PPP-P got almost an equal number of votes, nobody got more than 10% of votes that could be cast. Claiming a “revolution” to anyone who will listen, MMA’s vote tally amounts to a grand 4%. The number of seats does not truly reflect the reality on the ground in the “first-past-the-post-system”. The MMA constituent parties got almost the same number of votes they normally get in any general election, this time their votes were counted together in a Qazi engineered “alliance”. With the main PML split into PML (Q) and PML (N), and both PPP and ANP also split in NWFP, MMA swept them aside in close races. A low turnout in any election always helps the more organized political machine, whose rank and file is more likely to turn out to vote en masse. The anti-American factor helped solidify the MMA vote in the border areas of NWFP and Balochistan but not as overwhelmingly as given out to be. Maulana Fazlur Rehman of JUI (F) may strut his stuff as a potential PM but with less than 60 votes (including the ones reserved for women) in the National Assembly out of 340, or less than 20%, Maulana Sahib’s expectations are rather over-ambitious. At best his posturing is a bargaining position, meant to get maximum benefit for himself, his party and the alliance, MMA, and in that order. As a close ally of Ms Benazir, he managed that to his benefit in the last PPP regime.
The Buck Stops Here
In the National Assembly elections on Oct 6, the PPP (along with its PML(J) allies) had obtained a comfortable lead over PML(N) and its allies but not resounding enough for an absolute majority. The subsequent Provincial elections on Oct 9 saw PPP get an overwhelming success in its Sindh stronghold, a slender lead (along with its allies) in Punjab but conceding majority to PML(N) (and its allies) in Sarhad and Balochistan. Since our people tend to worship only the rising sun, the election of the NA Speaker (and later of the PM) clearly indicated that the sign of the times was that the PPP was slowly but surely gaining strength. This perception was force-multiplied when the PML(N) failed to get a single independent or minority member in the Punjab. However, both in Sarhad and Balochistan, the PML(N) and its allies succeeded in forming governments with the help of independents and others. The stage was thus set for the Presidential elections.
Analysing this scenario, it would have been expected of the PML(N) to go for a consensus with PPP in the matter of the choice of President. With PPP firmly in the saddle and having proved its majority, Ms Benazir could have sat back and coasted home. However, Ms Benazir was faced with three major problems, viz. (1) the advent of GIK into the Presidential race asking for the proverbial pound of flesh (2) the candidacies of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan threatened to draw crucial votes away in a possible one-on-one race and (3) the seeming refusal of PML(N) to consider any candidate except one from among its own list thereby negating the concept of consensus or compromise.