Accountability
The Great Silent Majority
Charismatic leaders of the third world may come to power on a wave of public adulation but retain their chairs only through the support of the Great Silent Majority among the masses. This support may initially be based on the residuals of euphoria of an election campaign, can be sustained only through achievements taken note of by the masses, particularly pertaining to their economic well-being, not unrelated to a sound law and order situation. When the public confidence in hollow rhetoric starts to erode, the balloon of popularity starts to deflate fairly rapidly, the end reaction can be quite damning.
Ms Benazir Bhutto’s ascent to power was preordained for several reasons, some positive and some negative. The positive reasons were her undeniable charisma, a lasting admiration for her late father, her stated manifesto and above all the massive western media support based on admiration for her brave struggle, translating into vital support within the vocal liberal wing of the political structures of the western nations, particularly in the Democratic Party in the US. Though PPP got a supposedly split mandate, she enjoyed the grudging support of even those who probably did not vote for her party. The negative support for her was because of antipathy towards late Gen Zia and his dictatorial rule, May 29 Junejo Government massacre being the last straw for even his moderate supporters. This was further accentuated by the penchant of the masses for genuine unadulterated democratic freedom and the natural inclination for change after a long hiatus, any change. After May 29, 1988 change just became a matter of time, Aug 17 was simply a tragic milestone along nature’s way to a free and fair election, as much as any election in a third world country can be called as such. To their undying credit, the military hierarchy kept the constitutional faith, strengthening the hands of the President in his clear choice of the leader of the majority party in the National Assembly, Ms Benazir of PPP, to form the Federal Government. For many reasons, again positive and negative, Ms Benazir needed to become the Prime Minister of Pakistan, despite her detractors there is no ambiguity or controversy about her ascent to power, this was as it should have been, added to that she seemingly had overwhelmed the regionalists in Sindh.
The Great Silent Majority
Charismatic leaders of the third world may come to power on a wave of public adulation but retain their chairs only through the support of the Great Silent Majority among the masses. This support may initially be based on the residuals of euphoria of an election campaign, can be sustained only through achievements taken note of by the masses, particularly pertaining to their economic well-being, not unrelated to a sound law and order situation. When the public confidence in hollow rhetoric starts to erode, the balloon of popularity starts to deflate fairly rapidly, the end reaction can be quite damning.
Ms Benazir Bhutto’s ascent to power was pre-ordained for several reasons, some positive and some negative. The positive reasons were her undeniable charisma, a lasting admiration for her late father, her stated manifesto and above all the massive western media support based on admiration for her brave struggle, translating into vital support within the vocal liberal wing of the political structures of the western nations, particularly in the Democratic Party in the US. Though PPP got a supposedly split mandate, she enjoyed the grudging support of even those who probably did not vote for her party. The negative support for her was because of antipathy towards late Gen Zia and his dictatorial rule, May 29 Junejo Government massacre being the last straw for even his moderate supporters. This was further accentuated by the penchant of the masses for genuine unadulterated democratic freedom and the natural inclination for change after a long hiatus, any change. After May 29, 1988 change just became a matter of time, Aug 17 was simply a tragic milestone along nature’s way to a free and fair election, as much as any election in a third world country can be called as such. To their undying credit, the military hierarchy kept the constitutional faith, strengthening the hands of the President in his clear choice of the leader of the majority party in the National Assembly, Ms Benazir of PPP, to form the Federal Government. For many reasons, again positive and negative, Ms Benazir needed to become the Prime Minister of Pakistan, despite her detractors there is no ambiguity or controversy about her ascent to power, this was as it should have been, added to that she seemingly had overwhelmed the regionalists in Sindh.
Governance and Democracy
Dynamic young leadership is usually taken to be a boon for any nation, what we have seen happening in Pakistan over the past 5 years or so makes us cry out for those with experience of more years on Planet Earth. Usually intelligent and articulate, youthful leadership’s potential is often hamstrung by a whole bunch of informal Advisors from the inner circle dating back to school and college days who tend to influence/take part informally in crucial decision-making. This Under-19 lot that seem to surround youthful leadership and remove them from reality (a la Ms Benazir’s astonishing “Karachi is not boring” has undercut the system of governance as both elected representatives and selected officials have had to give way to those who do not have any idea (or expertise) of running an administration or for that matter even have a vested and accountable interest in doing so. Hardly able to find Grozny on the map (or for that matter Kigali), these “Yuppies” near the seat of power have become “experts” on foreign policy, influencing the hot and cold football with the media and as far as law and order is concerned the over-riding perception is that of a bevy of beauties let loose to run amok in a China shop (no pun intended). The hormones of our young leadership need constant companionship (remember John Kennedy’s young Presidency) to while away the time away from the rigours of Statecraft. Americans may remain nostalgic about “Camelot” that the Kennedys brought with them to Washington, the later knowledge about John F’s romp with the likes of Marilyn Monroe, Mafia-moll Judith Exner, etc gives shivers to historians about alien influence in the then decision making process.
To compound all this, a suffocating, hide-bound election mechanism has thrown up a very poor quality of leadership, without drastic reforms positively, we will have more of the same. Other than bad advice by dilettantes (and even yesterday’s debutantes) our political leadership is forced to depend upon “special interest groups” (and individuals) for survival once they are in office rather than on the electorate that voted them into office. The major problems thrown up by the present electoral system are nepotism and corruption (and accountability thereof) among our elected elite. Unless an innovative fresh (and natural) approach is made to minimising the predilection of our elected legislators for misusing the powers and privileges bestowed on them by the system, the debilitating process in our fraying society will continue.
The Ostrich Syndrome
The ruling PPP seemed to strike a discordant note at the hierarchical level at the beginning of this week. It is true that the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the NA had been trying to establish their writ (in independence of their party position) by insisting on the sanctity of their ruling in bringing the arrested MNAs to the House. However, the surprising Presidential hint that he would not hesitate to use his Constitutional role if he had to in the face of the worsening law and order situation in Karachi as well as the need to bring in MQM from the cold was in direct contrast to the PM’s assertion that “MQM should rein in its terrorists.” Having been on the receiving end of foreign policy disasters one after the other since the beginning of her reign, PM Ms Benazir had put in all her well known potential for persuasion into the OIC at Casablanca and thereupon savoured the first foreign policy success of sorts in bringing Kashmir to world attention by getting the participants to adopt a resolution, though it may be said quite reluctantly, by the likes of our so-called friends, Hosni Mubarak, Yasser Arafat, etc. That the PM may have been waylaid by the misleading reports given to her by her aides is perhaps the only excuse one can have for her failure to acknowledge that disaster is facing us in the face at Karachi. Having her power-base in rural Sindh, Ms Benazir has to come to terms without any further delay with the urban majority MQM in a spirit of give and take.
Given the deteriorating circumstances, the launching of Operation Clean-Up in May 1992 was necessary. The situation in the Province was reaching anarchical proportions and the then military hierarchy surmised that the populace was fed up of the transgressions and would respond positively. In the initial stages Operation Clean-Up was extremely successful in both the rural and urban areas but the latter exercise became a victim of serving individuals in mufti (in contrast to their uniformed colleagues for the most part) misusing their authority to unleash ill-conceived vendetta targeted on the MQM (only) in trying to bring about political change by military means, a non-starter as any avid student of history can confirm. Fighting in built-up areas while keeping civilian casualties down is not an easy task, the planning of the Operation by the then Corps Commander Lt Gen Naseer Akhtar was outstanding and its execution by his Comd Corps Reserve, Maj Gen Malik Saleem Khan was brilliant. However, the joker in the pack was the ill-conceived organising of the MQM (H) into a potent anti-MQM weapon. The MQM(H) may have genuine grievances but these latter day Quislings have served only to create a backlash among the Mohajir community to absolute resuscitation of Altaf Hussain’s waning fortunes in self-imposed exile. The MQM(H) exists today as a tragic but sore bone of contention in the search for urban peace. Instead of allowing the law of nature to take its course in establishing detente between the warring parties, those who were sidelined, some even being subsequently forced into early retirement for various misdemeanours involving corruption, greed, misuse of authority, etc have re-surfaced. Having ruthlessly exploited the MQM(H) previously, they are now again engaged actively in promoting disorder and anarchy by remote control. What is their “connection” that they cannot be made to answer for their crimes against humanity? The PM gave a broad hint to this effect before she left for Casablanca and repeated it again in a party Parliamentary meeting, why is GOP not bringing them to book with the same alacrity they showed for Mian Muhammad Sharif?
Why Do Systems Fail?
A star-spangled group of concerned citizens of various ilk have recently launched a campaign for peace and harmony in the country, particularly in Karachi, by putting their weight behind a mass appeal in the form of a major rally organised by the Mir Khalilur Rahman Society in Karachi and a separate campaign in the media. Opposition parliamentarians led by Mian Nawaz Sharif simultaneously organised an All Parties Conference (APC) in the city. On the surface terrorism’s immediate reaction to this was gunning down of one of the participants, the outspoken Editor of Takbeer, Muhammad Salahuddin. While the actual perpetrator of this ghastly assassination remains a matter of conjecture as late Salahuddin had many enemies (including those whom he had exposed as being corrupt), this vicious repudiation of the combined voice of reason underscores a deep apprehension of impending doom, a refrain heard alike in the drawing rooms of the elite and the tea-stalls of the impoverished, hovering like an ominous dark cloud over the minds of our citizenry. It is almost as if we are willing ourselves into becoming prisoners of our worst nightmares. This deterioration of the national fabric into anarchy, very much visible all around us in every institution of any note, can be solely and wholly blamed on the various permutations and combinations of small coterie in Pakistan that has always wielded power, whether in or out of authority. It is not surprising that these people conveniently remain blind and deaf to what’s happening to this country but do not fail to spout rhetoric far divorced from reality as to the reasons. The elected and the selected, with sometimes little difference between the two, have generally put greed and career respectively (or both together) before their conscience i.e. they have operated on the basis of their selfish personal needs by putting their own welfare and contentment before the safety and comfort of the citizens they represent and/or are responsible for, seldom giving greater priority to the honour and glory of the country they profess to be loyal to.
In this degeneration process, the first factors that we give lip-service to are merit and accountability. Merit is suspect because nepotism has so undermined the process of upward mobility that anyone showing signs of above par excellence is considered dangerous and dealt with accordingly. Those who have reached the upper levels with little to show for ability ensure a vicious cycle where no “upstart” with any merit comes through the pecking order. In Pakistan, as in third world countries, character assassination by the help of motivated intelligence reports is the order of the day, bloody assassination a la Salahuddin takes place only where everything else fails. An endless blackmail is conducted by twisting facts and mixing it with fiction in order to wear down the patience of the victim till he (or she) simply gives up out of sheer frustration. How many voices have we seen silenced, how many brilliant careers have we seen going down the drain in this manner? From time to time fate intervenes to correct this imbalance but the broad momentum of nepotism is maintained to the detriment of those crucial leadership attributes which are a necessity at every level of society and discipline. When merit thus becoming a negative attribute for survival and advancement, how does one expect accountability which in any case is mostly selective because it is directed towards the “enemies” of the powers – that – be (i.e. whoever is in power at that precise moment)? Selective accountability focus undercuts its credibility, the basis of fact being eroded by its motivated interest in persecution for the sake of persecution, sometimes even as a revenge motive, rather than purely altruistic intentions to uphold the laws of the land. There is a conspiracy of silence that makes for a sort of a “Thieves Pact” not to really put each other into any inquisition until one crosses a particular fail-safe line. To be effective, the concept of accountability has to be blind, compromises makes the process ineffective. One of the reasons why we are in a holy mess is because we have systematically destroyed the integrity of the accountability process.
A Political Compromise Formula
A couple of weeks ago, the Leader of the Opposition, former PM Mian Nawaz Sharif, had unveiled a comprehensive policy package to overcome the growing political crisis. The policy package of 9 points was made conditional upon 7 additional steps. Very briefly the package envisages (1) guarantee for elected Assemblies to complete their 5 years term with the results of the general elections binding on all parties and that no movement against the government be launched (2) independent members to join a political party prior to taking oath as Assembly members (3) for a period of 10 years no vote of confidence against the PM (4) powers vested in one individual that infringe upon sovereignty of Parliament be removed (5) women’s seat in Parliament be restored (6) procedure for appointments in judiciary be reformed (7) mode of participation of Leader of Opposition in national affairs be defined (8) constitutional guarantees be provided for conducting free and fair elections and (9) to eliminate corruption and misuse of authority, a sovereign institution be set up. While there may be some legal and procedural debate about circumscribing the powers of Assembly members to launch a vote of confidence against a PM for a period of 10 years, most of these proposals, except for binding the legislators against a “no confidence” motion which prima-facie would lead to a political dictatorship, are sensible prima-facie and the Bhutto government could theoretically give a short “OK” to the package in principle before sitting down to thrash out details that need elaboration.
The problem arises with the preliminary demands of the Leader of the Opposition, viz. (1) an election schedule be announced after which both President and PM should resign (2) the NA should not be dissolved so that constitutional amendments envisaged aforementioned can be passed (3) a caretaker PM be elected from the present Assembly by consensus of the two major parties so that he (or she) can make arrangements for conducting fresh elections (4) both political parties should hold dialogue under the Caretaker PM in order to formulate the new constitutional amendments (5) the caretaker President in consultations with the two major parties appoint non-partisan, non-controversial Governors (6) upon passing of the Constitutional amendments the Caretaker PM should dissolve the National Assembly and Governors, on the advice of the Caretaker President should dissolve the Provincial Assemblies, under the new constitutional arrangement, the Chief Election Commissioner should conduct fresh election with 90 days with the help of the Caretaker National and Provincial governments. One does not have to be a clairvoyant to come to the surmise that the Bhutto government will deliver a short emphatic “NO” to the aforementioned and gird its loins to meet the challenge in the streets, violently if need be. While the Opposition had been successful in bringing their protests out into the streets, the end results have fallen far short of shaking the Ms Benazir Government, what to talk about dislodging the regime.
Countdown (All Over) Again?
An expatriate Pakistani friend of ours rang up from the US recently to enquire whether it was safe to come home on leave to Pakistan as he had it on good authority that there would be trouble come September. Sad and frustrating though it was to hear bad news travelling so fast so far, it was hardly prophetic. Being immunized by the daily casualty figures of the MQM (A) – MQM (H) internecine warfare in Karachi, now further supplemented by the ever increasing Fiqah Jafria – SSP strife as representative of the collapsing social detente all over the country, one wonders what worse one could expect? The announcement by the Leader of the Opposition, Mian Nawaz Sharif, on Aug 14 in Karachi (repeated again in Islamabad on Aug 18) that he was hell-bent on bringing the government down, with the resignation of the Opposition (mainly PML (N) and ANP) Senators and MNAs from the Senate and NA Committees as a first step in demanding that the President and PM resign by Sept 11 or face a mass movement thereafter, one can hardly blame anyone for being pessimistic about the worsening security environment in Pakistan, both internally and externally. With obvious and automatic government reaction, the situation could escalate and the present bloodletting would be a Sunday school picnic in comparison to the bloodbath that is likely to ensue. A stage may well come that even if the Army steps in, they could not stem the slide into anarchy.
Any citizen dispassionately and deeply concerned about the present deteriorating economic, political and social climate, can hardly call the Opposition leader’s threat as fair but then in politics (as in war) nothing seems to be fair in Pakistan, there being extenuating circumstances that give some truth to his stubbornness. Ousted by a combination of guile and selfish interest, driven into a corner very much like had happened to Ms. Benazir, Mian Sahib in his turn in the cold, seems to be resolved that Ms Benazir must be repaid in the same coin. However, unlike Mian Nawaz Sharif, Ms Benazir does not have a hostile but a sympathetic President to contend with and since Gen Babar has “put the Army back in its place and they (the Army) do what the Government tells them to do”, quote and unquote, therefore (at least theoretically) no restless uniformed soldiers to contend with, given that we accept at face value such sweeping rhetoric. Having literally clawed their way back to power, it is highly unlikely that the President and/or the PM would oblige Mian Nawaz Sharif and go the resignation route he was forced to in July 93 in the “supreme interest of the country”. Double standards and separate yardsticks apply, almost in the same manner as one would fail to recognise an elephant just because he (or she) is wearing dark glasses or accept a person rapidly becoming one of the world’s leading billionaires without ostensibly doing any business, at least in the traditional sense of commerce.
The Doomsday Scenario Wattoo and Rwanda
Punjab Chief Minister, Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo, has proved himself to be a wily politician and a capable administrator. Where Ghulam Ishaq Khan and late Jam Sadiq Ali, the last two great exponents of the Machiavellian brand of politics in the country, had the benefit of sweeping bureaucratic powers and ruthless force respectively, Punjab’s Sphinx (nobody ever remembers him smiling or showing any other emotion) rules over the roost with a small base of only 16 members of the PML (J) along with an equal number of independents and minority members who joined Wattoo post his accession to power. An increasingly frustrated 100 odd legislators of his nominal PPP allies are kept in the dark and the cold alternately, not to count the 100 odd legislators of his old ally, the PML (N), that he has kept at bay. A vociferous Opposition would love to have him for breakfast but take comfort in the fact that Wattoo has put the PPP in greater discomfort (and as a result, disarray). Hostage to Wattoo’s vacillations, the Punjab PPP rank and file are dissuaded from outright revolt because of the vital PML (J) support (7 NA seats) that props up the Centre.
Losing his own traditional seat in the last elections, Wattoo could only scrape through by the barest of margins in a constituency gifted to him by the PPP. Without casting aspersion on the personality of this able but devious man, one must recognize that this is essentially a reign of the minority over the majority, not the stuff of democracy. Wattoo safely remains in power through a combination of bluff, spreading of political largesse and the “Wattoo shuffle” (a constant movement of the political feet denying anyone a fixed target). On the other hand, the President of PML (J), Mr (holier-than-thou) Hamid Nasir Chattha, symbolically denies any lust for power by refusing cabinet posts but remains blissfully comfortable in blatantly imposing his minority faction over the PPP’s real right to rule in the Punjab.
Games People Play
Without a clear majority in the 1988 NA elections but with 90 seats plus, Ms Benazir anxiously (and successfully) sought the Army’s nod in making the Federal Government. Less than two years later, she was ill-advised in trying to retire the then Chairman JSCS, Admiral Sirohey, and kick the then COAS, Gen Aslam Beg, upstairs into this largely ceremonial post. Technically Chairman JCSC is senior in rank to the COAS but toothless in the measure of actual power. Even with her own nominee as the DG ISI, Lt Gen (Retd) S.R.Kallue, a very competent professional soldier, she was caught by complete surprise by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in an operation for her removal as PM overseen by the then DGMI, Maj Gen Asad Durrani, in collaboration with an Election Cell within the Presidency comprising luminaries such as Roedad Khan and Ijlal Haider Zaidi. One messes with the internal working of the military hierarchy in a third world Muslim country at one’s peril. There are some games one does not play.
Has the 60-day Clock Started Ticking?
The Supreme Court decision on May 26 last year signalled the beginning of the end of the “Empire”. It restored Mian Nawaz Sharif as PM of the Federation and seemed to signal to an excited population that for all practical purposes the machinations of backroom politics (selections) would give way in the future to a genuine representation (elections) of the people at the helm of national affairs. By this token both major political parties would seem to benefit, they had youthful leaders who aroused universal adulation, this was reflected in the near equal October 1993 vote. However, the Empire was not yet quite finished and even while conducting a deliberate retreat, it manoeuvred new alliances (1) ensuring that Mian Nawaz Sharif would not acquire the power that democracy bestows on the elected and (2) the Empire helped Ms Benazir to come to power even though the vote was too close to call and in that process acquired enough IUOs from her to make the going tough whenever she was faced with a political crunch. Because the powers-that-be had contrived to confine his Federal authority to the perimeters of Islamabad and to avoid being frustrated in exercising his Constitutional parameters, which would invoke civil war conditions, Mian Nawaz Sharif quit on July 18, 1993. CMs Mir Afzal Khan (in NWFP), Wattoo (in Punjab), Magsi (in Balochistan) and Muzaffar Shah (in Sindh) were in open defiance of Federal rule. Less than a year later, it would be an understatement to state that the PPP Government in NWFP is shaky at best, Wattoo in Punjab takes advice from everybody but does not listen to anybody, the Government in Sindh is in a state of paralysis because of the PPP-MQM rural-urban divide and Magsi in Balochistan remains very much an independent soul. For Constitutional purists, the Provincial “Autonomy” being presently exercised may not be a bad thing by itself, for a nation increasingly at odds internally on any number of issues, the Centre cannot afford to lose its pre-eminence, given the example of fragmentation of unions along ethnic lines as seen to great detriment in Eastern Europe and former USSR.