The Opposition Unites
Mian Nawaz Sharif has done for the Opposition a favour the lately lamented Opposition could not do for themselves, he has united them and given them a fresh lease of life. Only the Jamaat-e-Islami remains outside “the Alliance”, determined to go solo in trying to remove the government in power. As everyone knows, only the religious parties and the regional ones like ANP and MQM have cadres that can face off administrative power in the streets. Qazi Hussain Ahmed is a good tactical leader but has a history of wrong strategic decisions and JI’s remaining aloof may mean success or failure on the part of forces inimical to the PM, particularly in stage-managing strikes in the urban cities of Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and the twin cities of Rawalpindi-Islamabad.
How has the “heavy mandate” like the one Mian Nawaz Sharif obtained in 1997 (approximately 8 million votes out of a population of 130 million, registered voters being 50 million it comes to 16% only) come to grief in less than 18 months? Why has the print media that had united to decry Ms. Benazir and support his cause now almost united against him? Why are people who believed in his sincerity now doubting even his credibility? Why are people who used to believe that with a businessmen background he was most suited to re-invigorating the economy, now shudder at such economic initiatives that have brought this country close to flirting with economic doom? Enemies of Mian Nawaz Sharif can easily do a hatchet job on him, only a person who remains a friend of his can do an objective study of his predicament and how he has single-handedly managed to bring it about. Whatever crisis the PM now faces is of his own making. One can blame the economic ills the country faces on previous governments, notably that of Ms Bhutto who in good eastern tradition let her husband Asif Zardari run riot, the fact remains that inconsistent policies and lack of real commitment has further eroded our economic infrastructure so that we now have to thank our parallel economy for remaining financially afloat.
Mian Nawaz Sharif is ill-served by his “inner circle”. They cocoon him from objective criticism and if any does get to him, they lament the source as prejudiced and the facts as dubious. A friend criticising him is castigated as having been “bought” over. Not in the habit of reading newspapers and magazines, he relies on highlighted portions that are put up to him as a Summaries. No attempt is ever made to try to rectify a situation before it gets out of hand, his “inner circle” tends to blame disasters on others. This is not unique to Mian Nawaz Sharif, almost all leaders are afflicted by this “hear no evil-see no evil” syndrome. On the other hand, Mian Shahbaz Sharif, who rules over Punjab as Chief Minister (CM), is much more “hands on”. Since Punjab has its own endemic problems, Mian Nawaz Sharif manages to get himself into trouble more often than not. As a troubleshooter Shahbaz remains busy fending off crises for his elder brother. Unlike Ms Benazir who was served selflessly by only a handful, Mian Nawaz Sharif has exceedingly good political aides, among them Senator Sartaj Aziz, Raja Nadir Pervaiz, Lt Gen (Retd) Majeed Malik, Ishaq Dar, Senators Pervaiz Rasheed, Khwaja Asif etc. He has already lost some stalwarts like Begum Abida Hussain and Mian Azhar, will probably lose others, sooner rather than later. In any case advice from outside the “inner circle” is viewed with skepticism and mostly with a grain of salt. Loyalty is a two-way street, they have been more than loyal to him, what about his confidence in them? Except possibly for Ishaq Dar, who can claim to being a sane voice in the “inner circle” none of his able ministers have a voice in important matters. The decision-making process is a convoluted one that once announced, has to be accepted it without debate as a fait accompli. There being no open debate on options and consequences, crisis is only managed after it is already near disaster potential. Decisions are thus made in a vacuum of experience and knowledge, more often than not it is self-serving. During the years in the wilderness one had many a chance to talk to Mian Nawaz Sharif, he used to welcome criticism which would make governance successful. Once in power, what to talk about criticism from friends, he is more likely to shoot the messenger, the bringer of any bad news.
As much as Asif Zardari was (and remains) Ms Benazir’s prime problem, Senator Saifur Rehman remains Nawaz Sharif’s Achilles heel. While Saif must be commended in his one act of cornering Ms Benazir on grounds of corruption, he thrives on the laurels of his one success. As much as the “yellow cab” scheme was brilliant, it was implemented in such an atrocious manner that it became (and remains) a white albatross around the neck of Pakistan’s financial institutions, the “Mera Ghar” (my home) scheme is similarly headed for another unmitigated disaster. Millions and millions are being spent on advertising and other means of self-promotion. The land being free, why is the construction so costly, will the poor able to afford it, more importantly can the exchequer afford such expansive populism? The idea is good, the modus operandi is not transparent at all.
Of the Punjabi leaders in the history of Pakistan, no one excited the people of Sindh, both Sindhis and Mohajirs, more than Mian Nawaz Sharif. For the same odd reason that he continues to give Saif his blind support, the PM seems to blindly trust Ghous Ali Shah, no one else does. Because the PML-MQM coalition government of Liaquat Ali Jatoi was corrupt and held hostage by the MQM, the PM very rightly sacked his own party-led regime. We then saw 8-9 months of good governance by Lt Gen (Retd) Moinuddin Haider, the Governor Sindh in Governor’s Rule. The PM has squandered his goodwill among Sindhis/non-Sindhis alike, alienating them by putting the destiny of Sindh in the hands of discredited Ghous Ali Shah. There was no reason for upsetting the applecart except to satisfy the greed of his partymen. The PM will have to do without the Army coming in “Aid to Civil Power” to put down street protest, it is far better to concentrate on good governance or even the semblance of it to ward off potential apocalypse than to depend upon the Army to pull one’s political chestnuts out of the fire. The mood in Sindh is of extreme skepticism and that is one area that can do without the Army’s input. Imran Farooq’s emergence in London is part of a greater game plan that has to be contained now.
What Pakistan desperately needs is more revenues but the present taxation system only puts more money into the pockets of the tax collectors. The tax collection system has to be decentralized down to the district level, with money being retained for local spending, thereby providing a direct linkage between taxation and spending. Without resources we are sinking into more debt, what to talk about launching new programmes to invigorate the economy. Moinuddin Khan, the former Chairman Central Board of Revenue (CBR) left a good job in Standard Chartered to work for a pittance for his country. In a little more than a year or so, he left, a frustrated man. And what about his successes? All a matter of conjecture, depending upon who was assessing his performance. The PM’s constituency, the business community, is up in arms against the imposition of General Sales Tax (GST). Without GST we are dead in the water economically, with GST there will be a price spiral on essentials, particularly for the common man. How does the PM get out of this “no-win” position? What was mid-wifed by Shahbaz Sharif a couple of days ago is nothing but paper dressing to contain a cloudburst.
Among Mian Nawaz Sharif’s supporters are those who belong to PML(N) and those who do not. Those who belong to the Party have some individual expectations, those who support him otherwise are probably more in number and have no individual motivation but a collective expectation of good governance. As part of the latter group one is extremely disappointed at the turn of affairs and the attitude per se of being “couldn’t care less”. While there are glimpses of hope among the stalwarts of the Opposition, except for a handful they failed their acid test when they were in power. One can only hope that Mian Sahib will not forget the “great silent majority” of those who believed in him but are now beginning to face the fact that the Opposition may be right in their demand that he step down and make way for a national government before he brings the country down. The ball is still firmly in Mian Sahib’s court, he has either to rise to the level of our expectations or become a part of our sorry history.
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