Back Home All is Not Well
Even her detractors do not attempt to deny that Ms Benazir is a charismatic figure tailor-made to exploit the best out of the western media. Given a gift of the rhetoric, Pakistan’s PM is also a forceful advocate of Pakistani causes when she puts her mind to it. As a well educated, intelligent leader of international acclaim, it was always an even bet that she would vow her hosts in the US. What goodies she comes back with will make a considerable impact on her fortunes at home which are dependant upon a more cynical lot who tend to be impressed more by the birds in hand (F-16s) rather than promises in the bush.
Ms Benazir’s festering problem is Karachi, Pakistan’s major and only port city. While every shade of public opinion recognizes that it is imperative to restore democracy at the grassroots level, she was recently quoted in an interview to NEWSWEEK as dismissing the Local Bodies election option in Karachi for 2 or 3 years. While she may be right in speaking about the prevailing conditions in the city as an obstacle of sorts, the fact remains that any solution requires democracy as a pre-requisite. The leadership vacuum at the street level has become too dangerous to ignore. Unfortunately since her electoral base is in rural Sindh, the PPP is heavily dependant upon the quota system to safeguard the interests of its prized constituents, that is directly in confrontation to the merit factor which is the main component of the urban-based MQM platform. While the ideological divide is such that though a temporary marriage of convenience is possible, Rudyard Kipling’s “the twain shall never meet” adequately describes the possibility of an MQM-PPP rapprochement. However one lives in hope and given the Mandela-De Klerk meeting of the minds in South Africa and the Arafat-Rabin patch-up of sorts in the Middle East, it is quite possible that our leaders will take into account the devastation that will continue to happen if an agreement of sorts is not hammered out soon. The problem for the PPP is that while MQM is central to Karachi’s quagmire, the PPP is as much incidental to the city’s present and future as the PML, as such the option is very much available to the MQM to choose either. While practically it may make sense to the MQM to come to a compromise with the rural majority, given historical connotations their preference would be the PML. We thus have an eternal triangle of sorts with no one prepared to come to terms by giving some leeway.
The economy is another major problem. Over-enthusiastic bureaucrats only too eager to please projected revenue assessment and tax collection figures far beyond their capabilities to accomplish. Having instituted some cost-savings before projecting the Budgetary expenditures, the net result is that even then the shortfall is almost Rs 70 billion though it could be narrowed down to Rs 50 billion. How the deficit is going to be overcome God alone knows. While Ms Benazir has US $ 20 billion in MoUs in hand in foreign investments, mostly in power projects it is most unlikely that more than 20% will come to any fruition. On the other hand, even if we can reach even that percentage of success, it will be a plus point for the economy. All the other annual economic targets, e.g. growth rate, have had to be revised downwards and inflation is nearing 20% unofficially, a fairly high rate. The Stock Market has taken a nose-dive, though in the wake of the euphoria of Ms Benazir’s US visit and a bit of “technical” manipulation, the leading Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) Index started to temporarily climb back from its low of 1600 points after a 700-800 points free fall in the past few months. To an increasingly burdened populace she can only promise further financial sacrifices in the coming years with expected rises in energy charges fuelling further inflation. The business community is up in arms because of administrative mishandling, the President of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) and some members of the Managing Committee having been removed by government edict, a sorry commentary on the means of democracy. With a combination of escalating prices and administrative excesses, we are in for a particularly hot summer in the streets. It is only Pakistan’s resilient parallel economy and our geo-political crossroads location that is keeping the whole financial edifice from going under.
Ms Benazir may be on the verge of paying too high a price in climbing to “front line status” in the fight against drugs and terrorism, both fall-outs mainly due to the Afghan war. While her bold stance may go down very well internationally, caution must be counselled in her present approach, particularly if she cannot deliver on her tough rhetoric. Drugs money has permeated every walk of life and is threatening to take over the infrastructure of society, a backlash financed by members of the drug cartel would be catastrophic unless she is prepared to take commensurate action against perceived foe and friend alike who have infiltrated both the major political groupings on the strength of their financial power. Terrorism is closely linked to the extremists in various religious sects, there is always the danger that her stance may be taken as representative of the western campaign against Islam itself, disguised as a front against fundamentalism. Even her late father had to give ground against Islamist forces in 1977 and his PPP was certainly much more representative and powerful than it is today. With Pakistan awash in illegal sophisticated arms and religious sensitivities quite high, discretion should be the better part of governance.
Ms Benazir may cart the ultimate symbol of her coalition, Hamid Nasir Chatta, around the world along with her but the political house of cards with which she makes up her Administration is increasingly in hot water. Chief Minister Punjab, Wile E. Wattoo of the PML (J), may give lip-service to a spirit of bonhomie with his PPP colleagues, he is certainly not under the majority partner’s control. The PPP rank and file are in virtual revolt in the Punjab in sheer frustration, Wattoo having rubbed his Coalition partners to their limits of patience. Playing a delicate balancing act, Wattoo is in a happy all-win position, dangerous to friend and foe alike. Ms Benazir’s political uncles have all deserted her en bloc and are clamouring for her head. Her ally and her late father’s confirmed opponent, Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, is playing cute, “not too young to rule, not too old for governance”. If in the next few weeks, some other political dominoes change sides, a post-Budget in-House change will become inevitable.
The civil administration and law enforcement agencies have been badly politicised, that is given a continuation of the policies in vogue earlier to Ms Benazir’s reign. However, subservience by the bureaucrats to their political masters has come at heavy cost to the rule of law and has been virtually institutionalised. Morale is bad among the great silent majority of bureaucrats afraid to be politically victimised if they do not carry out pre-emptory orders. There is sullen resentment through the ranks, while it has not yet boiled over into outright rebellion, there is a simmering fire down below that will not be long contained. The common perception is that the judiciary has been packed with loyal sympathizers and as such public trust in justice has fallen to an all-time low. Some of the manifestation has been seen in far out judgments hardly meant to inspire confidence in the judiciary’s integrity. For society this is a damning event because the populace believes that since justice will be denied in the normal process, they will increasingly turn to taking law into their own hands with disastrous consequences all around.
There is a rot of corruption eating at the heart of Ms Benazir’s Government, a time-bomb ticking away. As much as the PM rails against nepotism and corruption, the fact of the matter is that it is established at Ground Zero in her own Administration. With all his strengths and weaknesses, late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was never considered corrupt. It is now so rampant in the Ms Benazir administration that even first brother, Mir Murtaza, has been regularly lambasting her government about widespread corruption. While the Ms Bhutto Administration does not have a corner on the market in corruption, successive Governments before her having had their fair share of rascals, the public perception is force-multiplied by the other ills pervading the entire social and economic environment, particularly the bad law and order situation. Given the special circumstances, one does not see how Ms Benazir can have the will to confront the corruption issue head on. That is the real tragedy, to have a person of her immense potential hamstrung in this manner.
All this while the Army sits on the sidelines, waiting and watching. Having ruled over the country for more than half its existence but stung by the criticism it has received over the years for its role during successive Martial Laws, the Army’s presently seems to be strictly bound by (and adhering to) constitutional parameters. Acutely aware that the western world is sensitive to encouraging democracy (at least wherever and whenever it does not come into conflict with their own vital interests), the military hierarchy remains above the political fray though not averse to giving some public indication of their shifting perceptions from time to time. This is the year for jockeying for the all important post of COAS. Whereas by all the measure of fair-play it should go to the one professionally most competent and not willing to sell one’s soul at the altar of one’s career, PPP’s selection criteria has other facets of personality for evaluation. Despite all the pretense of amicable co-existence there seems to be some reservations in the existing relationship. However if the measure is that the present military hierarchy can stomach the present excesses by politicians on the various freedoms enjoined in a democracy, then we are in for more troubled times if the government selects for the next COAS a person tailored to their needs, which is essentially to look the other way.
Time is always the key to political survival, any substantive goodies that Ms Benazir can bring back from the US of A will contribute to the PPP’s political longevity in the realm of governance.
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