Barbarians at the Gate?
Facing a very serious economic situation internally and beset by the proximity of one externally, Pakistan must be thankful that the rather creditable efforts of the present government as well as the Governor State Bank of Pakistan, has kept us from going under. Kudos are also in order for former President Farooq Leghari, for if he had lacked courage in sending the Bhutto regime packing in late 1996, we could never have survived Zardarinomics — every person in his pocket, every pocket his own — a few more weeks. In the bad economic environment of Asia, economic survival has taken some doing. We may also thank our lucky stars that George Soros probably considers it beneath his contempt to play around with our meagre foreign resources. As for financial analysts, they are no different than weather pundits, how many eulogizing the so-called “Asian Tigers” a year ago predicted the Asian financial crisis? Given that economic forecast, particularly with false or unreliable indicators, is risky business, given that the present global electronic environment where flight of capital takes seconds only is hardly conducive, one thing is very predictable, the leaders of Pakistan have to put in a seven-days-a-week, 24 hours-a-day superhuman effort to escape economic apocalypse. The present 9-to-5 hours-a-day six days-a-week syndrome is hardly conducive to economic amelioration of the masses. Lip-service with flourishes of the Z.A. Bhutto-type rhetoric will not do, deeds are much more appropriate to the times, as far pragmatic and as much related to the need as possible. A recent presentation to the PM in Zurich by a group of Pakistani financial experts based in the US (who came all the way to Zurich on their own time and expense) brilliantly identified the causes of Pakistan’s economic woes, they also suggested pragmatic remedial measures. Where they got stumped in was in the implementation of the proposals made, that is our greatest failing, a continuing lack of success in executing plans well-laid. And even the plans fall short of being revolutionary, to quote the PM “it will take a revolution, to take us out of this mess”. Mr PM, if the situation leads to anarchy, that may well-bring about a street revolution beyond the means of any government to contain.
The PM could well-start his “revolution” by putting his own house in order, by dividing the scope of government work and his time in such a way that concentrated effort is made in both the political and financial fields. That he is not overly impressed with his economic team is abundantly clear in the off-handed manner he has been dealing with the leading members of his financial administration. More specifically he has stated his lack of confidence publicly enough for the Governor State Bank of Pakistan to hand in his resignation. That would have been a tragedy, no one has done more in keeping monetary supply in check than Dr Mohammad Yaqub, for him to walk out now would have meant financial disaster for Pakistan, a loss in confidence in Pakistan’s economic revival by the world’s financial institution that would have been more shattering than the loss of investor confidence. By the weekend, good PML soldier Senator Sartaj Aziz had cajoled the Governor State Bank of Pakistan into staying, for the time being, at least for the foreseeable future. One cannot but feel for the poor Governor, if one hears about high-profile public efforts by the PM to replace him, what does one expect any self-respecting man to do? For the record, the Governor SBP has done an excellent job in keeping the barbarians from the financial gate!
Far too long Shahbaz Sharif has been receiving public approbation, being tarred and feathered by public perception while the muck has never stayed on his more amiable brother. A far more methodical administrator, Mian Shahbaz Sharif is better organized than his PM brother. Not being very prone to Rasputins, his Achilles Heel is less vulnerable to exploitation, though one daresays that some retired persons with grudges to assuage because they were stopped in getting higher rank do get time to proffer ill-advice in his ears about the Armed Forces. Mian Shahbaz has been trouble-shooting for his brother, he should now be given over the political problems to tackle while Mian Nawaz Sharif concentrates fully and wholly on the economy.
Too much of the PM’s time is consumed by tending to unnecessary political problems and there are but so many hours in the day and so many days in the week. Mian Shahbaz Sharif has proven himself to be an excellent administrator who doesn’t suffer fools easily. As the PM’s brother he will be able to command the confidence of those with whom he negotiates, fire-fighting to keep the rather demanding allies of the PML in line. Once upon a time Ch Nisar Ali had such authority but this time around he seems to be engaged in trivial pursuits of no political consequence, giving the look of someone spaced out rather than a hands-on pilot. Since Mian Shahbaz Sharif and Nisar are good friends, he could still be a real asset in political trouble-shooting and freeing the PM to do his sworn duty to the electorate, to get us out of this economic morass in exclusion of almost everything else.
Nobody should doubt that the PM is sincere in his stated resolve but what we need is a pragmatic and comprehensive long-term plan, that can only happen if he fully concentrates on the economy. Over the governance year the government have settled into a routine, a routine which sees Islamabad close down on Saturdays — as the PM heads for Raiwind — and open up only Monday morning when he gets back. Nobody denies the PM the lifestyle of a tycoon (which he is) but more importantly he is also the head of an impoverished nation that is living on the borderline of economic disaster. This country could not afford Ms Benazir and her foreign jaunts of no consequence, today it can ill-afford even a tycoon PM to be out of the country for more than three days at a time, more than twice in a month. This cultural environment is suited better to later Moghuls than the horseback reign of the founder Moghul Babar. Even Mian Sahib’s symbolic road-making hero, Sher Shah Suri of the GT road fame, ruled from horseback. Laid-back governance with time-outs in Zurich, London and Hong Kong will not work. Instead of Raiwind, Mian Nawaz Sharif should be in the Provincial capitals on Saturday nights, talking to private entrepreneurs in the economic capitals of the country to get the national economic engine working efficiently. He also needs to do this without dragging around his usual retinue of courtiers, a bunch that would put Emperor Akbar and his “nine jewels” to shame. His conversations should be confined to very small groups (maximum 10 to 15 including his advisors on the pattern of the Pakistani experts group from the US) that must take in proposed initiatives in the industrial, commercial and services sector on a daily basis. The large crowd (with attentive Governors, Chief Ministers, Ministers and Secretaries) that turns up everywhere to hear long prepared speeches about how good the PM is, how lucky the country is to have him, how bad the economy is and what is going to happen to Pakistan if someone doesn’t do something about it, should be avoided as these home-truths are well-known. We need people to make remedial suggestions not proffer advice only on issues which concern their own crass selfish interests.
Mian Sahib must get his priorities right and his concentration together. He must allocate his human resources adequately and delegate authority judiciously. He has a very good understanding of the economy and its problems, he has simply got to get his act together in implementing what must be implemented. He is asking the nation for sacrifice, then he must symbolize that sacrifice by putting in those long hours in effective economic governance. He must not keep repeating ad nauseam what he is doing for the nation, he must now tell them how he is going to go about it. He has to take strong decisions that may well-hurt the populace in the short run but Pakistanis are a very resilient bunch and if Mian Sahib can explain to them why the sacrifice is necessary and symbolize that sacrifice by setting austere standards of living, not mere eyewash, then he will find this nation not only willing to make that sacrifice but sacrifice their will to Mian Sahib’s to take this country back on economic keel. We have seen what the barbarians have done to East Asia, the barbarians are now at our gate!
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