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Back to Sindh’s Future
The PPP’s decisive majority in Sindh is rural-based except for the National Assembly where because of the MQM boycott it shared the MQM’s urban seats with the PML (N). Bouncing back strongly from their strategic blunder which took away their king-maker status at the national level, the MQM took the second largest majority of 27 PA seats, a true reflection of its vote bank among the Mohajir community in the major urban areas.
Compartmentalised into Provincial role, a culmination of the process that started less than two years ago with Operation Clean-up, a sense of deprivation and persecution is endemic among the Mohajir community. Though Operation Clean-up was primarily directed at restoring the rule of law in Sindh in both the urban and major rural areas, their overwhelming urban presence meant that the MQM became the only political party so targeted. In the period pre-Operation Clean-up some of MQM’s militant elements had far exceeded the parameters of civilized behaviour and were openly baiting the army. Having cogent reasons for not being enamoured with the MQM, the Army called their bluff but in their success they need to be magnanimous in the greater interest of national integrity. As seen in their tolerance of the present “democracy”, they can be patient if they have to be. The sins of a handful cannot be visited upon the millions of their innocent kith and kin, Mohajir public opinion is already estranged and getting more bitter by the day.
Thinking Positive
Almost all political pundits within and outside the country had predicted a major victory for the PPP over the PML(N) in the National Assembly elections followed by a complete rout in the Provincial Assemblies round a few days later. As a part of overall PPP strategy the first round knockout of Nawaz Sharif was necessary as they were apprehensive of a repeat performance circa 1988 when the Punjab remained a thorn for the PPP Federal Government. However, contrary to the soothsayer’s hopes (rather than any calculated analysis) the PML(N) made a surprisingly strong showing in the general elections, emerging with a slight edge in voting percentage over the PPP nationally but losing out in the commensurate overall tally of seats. All the fears of a “hung” Parliament seem to have come true.
For the first time since the inception of Pakistan in 1947, PML has fought an election as an independent political entity and not as the contrived creation and/or appendage of the Establishment. Nawaz Sharif has provided the PPP its first real democratic Opposition in 25 years. By any reckoning, this has been a phenomenal performance given Ms Benazir’s undeniable charisma, the PPP’s well organised campaign machine and a strong grassroots support among the electorate. On the other hand, the bifurcation of the PML into various factions pre-elections meant that the PML(N) started bereft of a campaign machine, an almost non-existent party organisation that was cobbled together by a bunch of amateur but dedicated Nawaz-loyalists combining with a smattering of experienced professionals. Creating order out of chaos, they were able to translate their enthusiasm into political potency. However, there were glaring shortcomings e.g. the initial euphoria on October 6 night when the sweep of the urban areas convinced the PML(N) that they were well on the way to an overwhelming majority but were later embarrassed by the rural returns and that of the Seraiki belt. On the other hand (the much vilified) Hussain Haqqani of the PPP PR and media team gave a professional performance by disseminating accurate figures on both nights and did his credibility a world of good. For PPP this was the second time they went to the polls with home ground advantage (the first being the 1977 polls) because despite the cosmetics being aired about transparency and fairplay, the Caretaker Administration seemed to be supportive of a PPP victory. However, to the lasting credit of the Army and the civil administration, except for an odd exception or two at higher levels, they generally and genuinely remained neutral. For the Army this has been their finest hour, they maintained a “hands off” policy that contributed to the psyche of free and fair elections, they also managed to maintain commendable peace and harmony throughout the country. While the COAS must take credit as the head of the institution, congratulations are in order all around down the pecking list. One must commend the excellent role played by ISPR in keeping the Army’s public image free from controversy, this time they have functioned with maturity as per their mandate.
The Task Ahead
Despite his worst inclinations (not to talk about designs), the President has continued to heap favours on Nawaz Sharif that add to his political mileage. After delivering his speech of April 17, the PM badly needed something like the ham-handed overkill of the April 18 Presidential Dissolution (along with Dismissal of the PM and his Cabinet for good effect) in order to be confirmed in the eyes of the masses as a genuine political leader of national stature. In a space of 24 hours (give or take a little) the President transformed Nawaz Sharif from what his worst detractors held him to be, as a slightly rebellious Establishment front man, to the status of an underdog in full fledged revolt. As the world knows, everyone loves an underdog especially one who has the courage to take on Goliath. April 18 made Nawaz Sharif independent of all the IOUs that had shackled him to the geriatric epitome of bureaucracy personified in the person of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and all that was wrong in this country because of it. If April 18 was not enough, the continued Ishaq-sponsored machinations post the May 26 Supreme Court verdict continued to shower blessings on Nawaz Sharif’s political career, it also rapidly evaporated the euphoria of victory and brought the Nawaz Sharif camp back to Mother Earth and political reality, survival in the quicksand of Pakistani politics was still around the corner. The President’s action set in motion a series of events that can only culminate in further benefits to the PM in the matter of governance of the country as it serves to clear the decks. The Dissolution of the Punjab and NWFP Assemblies could have been written by a Nawaz Sharif loyalist Script-writer, both events will further drive nails into the coffin of future Presidential interference. The best side-effect of all this were the public moves of rapprochement between the PM and Ms Bhutto on the floor of the House, a process that may still fall apart for any number of reasons, but given the groundswell of public goodwill and expectation it generated, will have repercussions for whoever is the recalcitrant party.
With the possibility that the Punjab Assembly will most likely be restored, the Wattoo-ising of Wattoo should take another three days or so. With his power base thus re-solidified, the PM should be able to negotiate with (and not take dictation from) the Opposition. It is always important for any genuine negotiations to be held without fear of coercion on either party, the results arrived at are much more sincere and lasting. Some of the more salient points of difference and possible compromise need to be evaluated in depth before discussions as they would effect the wide spectrum of the masses throughout Pakistan, the public good rather than the vested interest of any one political grouping must prevail.
The Province of Sindh
In May 1992, Sindh was in the grip of severe lawlessness. On the prompting of numerous intelligence reports about the helplessness of the Sindh Administration to prevent crime in both the urban and rural areas, the Pakistan Army brought it to the attention of the Federal Government. They feared that anarchy was around the corner. While reluctant to get involved, the Army hierarchy had concluded on the evidence at hand that no other option existed. The Federal Government mandated the Pakistan Army to restore the rule of law in the Province “at the request of the Sindh Government”.
The problems in the urban and rural areas were of completely different nature. The MQM had been formed in the urban areas of Sindh as a defence mechanism for the Mohajirs against the excesses of Sindhi ethnicity, local police, public transporters and militant gangs of other political parties, etc before its evolution as a political organisation. Essentially it adopted militancy to fight transgress from various quarters, the militants within MQM ultimately became a law unto themselves. On coming to power the MQM’s own militants resorted to bullying and intimidation, mostly against their own community. Such are conditions of anarchy created, the result was a free for all wherein the criminal elements on the fringes of political parties infiltrated the body politic itself and mixing with the militants replaced genuine political activity with criminal intent. With the police either helpless or collaborating or in a combination of both, the rule of law disappeared.
The State, Industry and Commerce – II
The Nawaz Sharif government has made some very laudatory and swift moves towards freeing the economy, speeding up the process started by Junejo in 1985 and continued by Ms Benazir. Open-ended incentives for locating projects in the rural areas can only encourage rapid industrialisation. Demographically speaking, it will initiate population shift back to the rural areas. Bureaucracy’s control over the granting of permissions having been reduced in the “sanctioning of” part, the Empire will strike back (to reassert their authority), probably by making utilities unavailable. The politicians ability to cope with the bureaucracy’s capacity to filibuster will be the acid test of the economic will of the new Administration, a hard rock on which the PPP wave floundered.