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Dissolution Again?
Towards the end of the Supreme Court hearings that led to the historic verdict of May 26, the Empire showed its hand regarding future course of action by coordinating a media offensive by the CMs of the Provinces against the PM. The Provinces followed this up by requesting the Honourable Supreme Court that they be allowed to become party to the petition being heard by the Provinces. At the fag end of the arguments, the Supreme Court allowed them to make their brief submissions against giving the Petitioner any relief but were obviously not impressed enough to affect its verdict. Having lost the Courtroom battle, the Empire shifted its battle lines to the Provinces, as events are unfolding, with consequences far more dangerous. If one were to do serious war gaming, the scenario would unfold like this, the dissolution of the PAs (and the on/off restoration process thereof) would be followed by the NA Budget Session. Forced to impose certain direct taxes in the Budget to meet the officially projected Rs 85 billion deficit (more in the region of Rs 110 billion) the Federal Government would face stiff opposition within the Assembly and this would flow into the streets. The Provincial Governments would stand back and let anarchy take hold. If the Federal Government used Rangers they would yell blue murder and civil war conditions would be created. The Army would have to be called in to restore order, the situation would then be ripe where the President would be satisfied that conditions are such that the Federal Government could no longer perform its duties and an Emergency would be declared, the jurisdiction of the judiciary with respect to fundamental rights would be suspended. The NA having passed the Budget, it would have done the same job a Queen does for any Empire, having produced a male heir it would have no further use for the Empire and would be dissolved again. All this may sound far fetched but given the legal and political footwork witnessed in the last two weeks, particularly in the Punjab, this is very much within the realm of a distinct possibility, desperate men never fear any consequences for society at large and nations in particular.
As much as the PM is to be commended for extending an olive branch to the Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, he failed in a crucial test of political sagacity, he should have also made moves to pacify the President. Given that Ghulam Ishaq Khan may not have reciprocated to any of his overtures, why work on the assumption that he would not? Whatever may be the political differences of the PM with the President, as long as he is the President he represents the unity of the Federation and he must be given due deference as becomes his position. One may not like him, that is no reason to show disrespect by eliminating the crucial and necessary dialogue between State and Government that is the essence of smooth governance. Political requirements may require that the Constitution be suitably amended to balance the powers equitably, that does not obviate respect for the Office that is the highest in the land according to the Constitution. Politics enjoins the art of compromise, the PM has far less differences with the President than Ms Bhutto has, even given their present cosy relationship. By not opening up communication channels to the old man on the hill, the PM has closed down an option that is very much available to the Leader of the Opposition to exploit to the PM’s detriment. It also gives an opportunity for self-seekers around the President to evolve a hard stance against the PM. These people will not allow this old man to rest in his twilight years. In defeat, Nawaz Sharif showed admirable defiance, in victory he must show extraordinary magnanimity. At the moment the President is in a corner fighting for his political life and he is fighting back in the ways he knows how to, unfortunately the no-holds barred stance on either side is seriously damaging the political and economic fabric of the Federation. Muslim tradition dictates that if an enemy lands up at your doorstep you cannot deny him succour or hospitality, for the sake of this country Nawaz Sharif must swallow his pride and land up at the Presidential doorstep. How can we know whether the old man on the hill really believes that forgiveness is divine unless this precept is really tested. The PM has people like Elahi Baksh Soomro, Sartaj Aziz, Malik Majid, etc with access to the President, to act as initiators and moderators of any dialogue. Why does he not use them?
The Task Ahead
Despite his worst inclinations (not to talk about designs), the President has continued to heap favours on Nawaz Sharif that add to his political mileage. After delivering his speech of April 17, the PM badly needed something like the ham-handed overkill of the April 18 Presidential Dissolution (along with Dismissal of the PM and his Cabinet for good effect) in order to be confirmed in the eyes of the masses as a genuine political leader of national stature. In a space of 24 hours (give or take a little) the President transformed Nawaz Sharif from what his worst detractors held him to be, as a slightly rebellious Establishment front man, to the status of an underdog in full fledged revolt. As the world knows, everyone loves an underdog especially one who has the courage to take on Goliath. April 18 made Nawaz Sharif independent of all the IOUs that had shackled him to the geriatric epitome of bureaucracy personified in the person of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and all that was wrong in this country because of it. If April 18 was not enough, the continued Ishaq-sponsored machinations post the May 26 Supreme Court verdict continued to shower blessings on Nawaz Sharif’s political career, it also rapidly evaporated the euphoria of victory and brought the Nawaz Sharif camp back to Mother Earth and political reality, survival in the quicksand of Pakistani politics was still around the corner. The President’s action set in motion a series of events that can only culminate in further benefits to the PM in the matter of governance of the country as it serves to clear the decks. The Dissolution of the Punjab and NWFP Assemblies could have been written by a Nawaz Sharif loyalist Script-writer, both events will further drive nails into the coffin of future Presidential interference. The best side-effect of all this were the public moves of rapprochement between the PM and Ms Bhutto on the floor of the House, a process that may still fall apart for any number of reasons, but given the groundswell of public goodwill and expectation it generated, will have repercussions for whoever is the recalcitrant party.
With the possibility that the Punjab Assembly will most likely be restored, the Wattoo-ising of Wattoo should take another three days or so. With his power base thus re-solidified, the PM should be able to negotiate with (and not take dictation from) the Opposition. It is always important for any genuine negotiations to be held without fear of coercion on either party, the results arrived at are much more sincere and lasting. Some of the more salient points of difference and possible compromise need to be evaluated in depth before discussions as they would effect the wide spectrum of the masses throughout Pakistan, the public good rather than the vested interest of any one political grouping must prevail.
Silent Rage
The government of Nawaz Sharif was sacked on the evening of Sunday April 18, 1993. On the following day, as a reaction to the controversial Presidential action, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) witnessed the largest fall in its share index in one day. Though it did not equal the October 1929 Black Tuesday crash on Wall Street, the fact of the precipitous “Black Monday” dive shook domestic and foreign investor confidence in the state of the economy.
The policies of the previous government were seen to be liberal and supportive of a conducive economic environment. By enacting far-reaching reforms to unshackle the economy from bureaucratic embrace, Nawaz Sharif had inspired sustained economic investment, particularly at the lower end of the economic spectrum. Indeed, this had blown the share market much out of proportion to its real value, corrections in a free market atmosphere had brought share prices to much more realistic levels before Monday’s headlong fall. The fall in share prices may be a reflection of investor confidence being shaken but given a GNP of US $ 50 billion approximately, a capitalisation of US $ 7 billion is relatively small. The unreal high point of 1700 points plus being reached in January 1992, the market index had come down to the 1200 threshold, a psychological benchmark that the former Finance Minister had set as an indicator of impending trouble. If the crisis continues share index may still fall through the 1000 point floor and as such while the Caretaker Government may be determined to change the form of the liberalising reforms enacted by the previous Regime, it has no elbowroom to change the substance as that would reflect adversely on the consistency of our own policies. As it is about Rs 7 billion in share prices has been wiped out and such a financial catastrophe may be difficult for generally new market players to absorb.
The Empire Strikes Back
The political struggle between the President and the PM that initially commenced with having more to do with egos has subsequently developed into a vested interest in retaining power rather than the upholding of any deep-rooted principles. A mass of disinformation has been let loose by both the sides that has kept the masses agog and the intelligentsia on tenterhooks, the business community registering its nervousness at the prevailing uncertainty through a steep decline of the stock market. In a perverse sense the internecine conflict has been a net gain for Pakistan for it has exposed our Parliamentary system for the farce that it actually is, a weak and spineless mechanism prone to Presidential remote control. In the past five years two elected Prime Ministers had become victims of Presidential angst, a third PM has now bitten the dust. We might as well declare the Presidency as a monarchy and be done with such a sham for a democracy.
Despite their own reservations about both the primary personalities involved, sane elements (including this scribe) had been counselling rapprochement between the President and the former PM in the greater national interest till they were blue in the face but to no avail, egos having enlarged to the extent of taking preponderance over anything else. Given the fact that the world political situation has undergone major surgery and we are in the midst of a sustained economic transition, the present political tussle has added to the country’s roller-coaster existence. Despite attempts at appeasement by the PM and his colleagues, the President has been as unforgiving as ever, driving Nawaz Sharif into such a corner that in a most uncharacteristic and surprising move he declared independence of the Head of Government from the Head of State, not a bad thing in itself in a Parliamentary system. The President’s mood had blackened over the PM’s alleged “indiscretions” in deliberately delaying to nominate him immediately as the PML candidate for the next Presidential election as soon as he had the mandate from the PML and for suggesting a repeal and/or amendment of the 8th Amendment. Having learnt nothing from Munich and appeasement thereof, the former PM had backtracked smartly on both the issues but the trust factor had already evaporated and did not satisfy those around Ghulam Ishaq Khan baying for Nawaz Sharif’s blood, particularly those who felt left out of the political and administrative mainstream, a habit that fails to die among old bureaucrats. Attempting to hound the PM out of office by a combination of bluff and bluster, the President’s men made the cardinal mistake of crossing a fail-safe line of courage and self-respect that is an in-built quality in all human beings, the potential to fight back in extreme adversity. The President may now have the PM’s head on a platter by sacking him and dissolving the National Assembly but he should re-read Homer’s Iliad, the admonition of the mother of Achilles to Achilles was not to kill Hector as he would not survive Hector’s death by long. It is common knowledge that the President has an extremely pronounced Achilles Heel in the form of the Presidential sons-in-laws. The citizens of this country may be forgiven for feeling that the country is being held hostage on their behalf.
Big Leaders, Small People
As the year 1993 dawned in Pakistan, the destiny of the country was in the hands of three powerful men, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz Sharif and the COAS, General Asif Nawaz Janjua, otherwise known as the “TROIKA”. Barely six months or so later, such is fate that all three have disappeared from the controls of the nation, at least one temporarily.
The first to go was Gen Asif Nawaz, his sudden heart attack and demise cut short an illustrious career, precipitating the crisis that saw the remaining two members of the “Troika” fight among themselves and ultimately relinquish their seats of power. To the former President’s chagrin this was on the prompting of the man hand-picked by him as the replacement for the late COAS. Before that Rubicon was crossed, the country has been reduced into political and economic shambles. For whatever it is worth, Ms Benazir Bhutto, who started the year in the political wilderness, seems to be the only beneficiary of having driven the country into this crisis. One believes that in winning a battle, she may be celebrating a bit too soon and may have lost the war. For the record, she has another shot at becoming the Prime Minister of the country. If she loses again, we can have another Long March.
Reorganising the Banking Sector
Third World countries that aspire for economic prosperity have to ensure that their financial sectors are adequately equipped to fuel sustained growth. Financial institutions are the bedrock on which to plan the building of industry and commerce in a world perennially short of development funds, lately Less Developed Countries (LDCs) are concentrating their energies on revitalizing this sector. In Pakistan, we pay a lot of lip-service to such notions, in actual practice we consign reformation ideas to the dustbin and progress is far from satisfactory.