Big Leaders, Small People
As the year 1993 dawned in Pakistan, the destiny of the country was in the hands of three powerful men, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz Sharif and the COAS, General Asif Nawaz Janjua, otherwise known as the “TROIKA”. Barely six months or so later, such is fate that all three have disappeared from the controls of the nation, at least one temporarily.
The first to go was Gen Asif Nawaz, his sudden heart attack and demise cut short an illustrious career, precipitating the crisis that saw the remaining two members of the “Troika” fight among themselves and ultimately relinquish their seats of power. To the former President’s chagrin this was on the prompting of the man hand-picked by him as the replacement for the late COAS. Before that Rubicon was crossed, the country has been reduced into political and economic shambles. For whatever it is worth, Ms Benazir Bhutto, who started the year in the political wilderness, seems to be the only beneficiary of having driven the country into this crisis. One believes that in winning a battle, she may be celebrating a bit too soon and may have lost the war. For the record, she has another shot at becoming the Prime Minister of the country. If she loses again, we can have another Long March.
While the former PM did not object to the President’s choice of COAS to replace late General Asif, his own first choice was brusquely brushed aside by the President and he was virtually faced with a fait accompli, thereby starting a chain of events leading to July 18. Nawaz Sharif, already conducting a low-level dialogue with the Leader of the Opposition, Ms Bhutto, in the aftermath of the failed November Long March, made some public gestures towards rapprochement, the underlying objective being the repeal (or amendment) of the 8th Amendment which gave the President draconian powers circumscribing the authority of the PM. Seeing a chance to drive a permanent wedge between the President and the PM and foster deep-rooted suspicions of each other’s motives thereof, Ms Bhutto surreptitiously kept the President informed about the on-going parleys, thus feeding the old man’s fears about the PM’s intentions. To maintain secrecy, she even cast the PPP negotiator Iftikhar Gilani out into the cold by keeping him in the dark about her duplicity, in effect shooting her own messenger for her own ambitions. Ostensibly she has won the political chess-game by getting another election 30 months before schedule but her betrayal of the confidentiality of negotiations has cost her own credibility dearly. This time around rigging won’t be required to cut her share of the popular vote in Punjab and Sarhad.
Once battle was joined between the President and the PM, there were no holds barred. Following the PM’s April 17 speech, the President dissolved the National Assembly (NA) on April 18 and installed a Caretaker PM and cabinet. Ms Bhutto who had led her “Go-Baba-Go” chanting MNA followers out of the NA in December 1991 while disrupting the annual Presidential Address, now did an 180 degree somersault and backed GIK to the hilt by designating PPP leaders to join the Caretaker Cabinet. For a person so enamoured about upholding democratic principles and shunning/boycotting the associates of her father’s nemesis, Late Gen Zia, this opportunism in supporting the closest civilian associate of the late President was simply unbelievable. When the Supreme Court gave its verdict in favour of Nawaz Sharif, she attacked that institution with undisguised venom, aligning more firmly with her new found ally, Ghulam Ishaq Khan.
History will not be forgiving to GIK. This man rose from humble means to the very top of the bureaucratic pinnacle, circumstances contrived to make him the Head of State. The former President was master of the art of intrigue and manipulation, that political ability stood him in good stead, not only did he survive regime after regime he kept climbing the bureaucratic pecking ladder till he became Chairman Senate as a reward for loyal services to late Gen Zia. While the credit for restoring democracy should go to then COAS General Aslam Beg, and his colleagues on August 17, 1988, nobody benefited more than Ghulam Ishaq Khan who was elevated to President. Everyone and his uncle in the intelligentsia and the bureaucracy knew GIK’s limitations, Dame Fortune kept him from being found out and coming to grief earlier. As the Economic Czar of Pakistan circa 1977 to 1985 he laid the seeds for the present sustained economic crisis. As it is, he goes into ultimate retirement one of the most vilified men in Pakistan’s history, an artificially created leader who wanted to hang onto power at the cost of his country. Large in appearance, he aspired to be one of the biggest leaders in Pakistan’s history, he goes down as a very small person indeed. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
For the moment, Ms Bhutto would seem to be the winner in that she has forced mid-term polls. Unfortunately, in forcing the issue she has created one of the worst precedents in our democratic history, that a minority can uproot a democratically elected majority by the threat of force. In the unlikely possibility that she should win, what is to stop her from suffering the same fate in her turn for any number of reasons? Nawaz Sharif had an elected majority in NA, one that had reposed confidence in him less than 2 months ago. His eviction from office thus is going to haunt democracy in Pakistan. One believes that had early polls was still on the cards but this should have been achieved through a dialogue with the incumbent democratically elected leader, Nawaz Sharif, this would have given legality to the democratic process. In her so-called “victory” are the germs of her ultimate loss, her credibility has been shot through among the intelligentsia and the masses. Having the advantage of the core support of a die-hard group of followers, she has lost that popular edge that could give her a majority either in the Punjab or Sarhad, even in Sindh she can at best hope for a coalition i.e. if the urban-based MQM should decide to support her cause. As things stand today she is destined to again become the Leader of the Opposition, the mathematics of the political winds is presently against her. This is not a prediction, it is an objective statement of future fact.
Nawaz Sharif has struck a raw chord among the intelligentsia and the masses. A large segment of the population believes that he can provide the answers to our economic problems. He has made certain mistakes but he has shed the in-born “rich kid” syndrome, having a Teflon-like hide, he has been overcome by events contrived by malafide intention. However, one must admit that charges of corruption seem to lurk in the atmosphere, he must make a more concerted effort to ward off scandal. He must discard some of his associates who give him wrong advice for vested interests and those who owe financial institutions many more billions than this country can afford. As a politician he should have been more active in defusing the crisis after his restoration as PM by the Supreme Court. By failing to have direct dialogue with the President on the one hand and Ms Bhutto on the other he caused some suspicion of his political sincerity but his second departure from office will further coalesce the great silent majority behind him and the sympathy vote will go to him. He needs the credibility of a fair election to legitimize his rule and as a Caretaker PM he could never have achieved this. It will be much more difficult for Ms Bhutto to cry foul. He is surrounded by far more capable and credible people than his major opponent. Nawaz Sharif will come back as PM with a far greater majority than he had in the last NA though maybe not the elusive two-thirds. He should now start to work out a game plan to deal with a possible Opposition government in Sindh (and perhaps a neutral government in Balochistan). His yellow cabs, yellow tractors, motorways, easy credits, etc may not really have affected the common man as yet, it has certainly positively affected the mass public perception about his intentions. Like the late father of the Leader of the Opposition, Nawaz Sharif has caught the public imagination, how well he can exploit it will dictate the extent of his majority in the NA. Possible victory has its own travails, the country is now facing acute economic crisis and he will be faced with a myriad number of problems after Pakistan’s nine-month period of limbo. The selection of Mr Moin Qureshi as Caretaker PM has been most wise, it gives an internationally credible economic continuity to the Nawaz Sharif programme. Moin Qureshi brings an illustrious financial career in the world’s primary financial institution as confirmation of his abilities to steer Pakistan through the present economic minefield. Nawaz Sharif has the capacity of being a big leader, to rise among the midst of small people, if he can but perfect the ability to rise above himself.
The Pakistan Army has finally delivered when we thought all was lost, one feels they fine-tuned it almost too late. Defence of the realm has to be from within and without, when the Head of State sworn to uphold the Constitution drives it into tatters, men of conscience have a responsibility to rise to the occasion, thankfully without the imposition of Martial Law. One feels ambivalent about the sacrifice of a democratically elected PM but one supposes the totality of the circumstances was focussed to his detriment. In keeping away from rampant ambition for the sake of democracy, the military hierarchy has shown tremendous patience and maturity. As they sit behind the scenes watching events unfold in the next few weeks, one thought must remain paramount in their minds, no individual is greater than the nation.
In the choice for candidates for the NA and PA seats, one hopes that the major political parties will be looking for class and credibility rather than the concept of winning at all costs. Because of his coattails effect, a greater responsibility falls on Nawaz Sharif to make the correct selection of potential candidates. Our politicians have proved that they may aspire to be big leaders but by not solving the political problem till the COAS Pakistan Army had to step in and moderate the issues, they have come out as very small people indeed.
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