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Economic Upturn?
If the boom on the Stock Market and the IMF delegation that was in Pakistan this week are to be believed we are back on the road to economic resurgence, a dramatic reflection of the present government’s economic restructuring drive. Conservative financial analysts do not pay much attention to the price of shares in Pakistan as a good enough economic indicator and the IMF stopped believing the Benazir regime’s fudged statistics since they made it into a state of art, in the presence of stock manipulators and gamblers who have a history of resorting to subterfuges for profit-taking, they prefer to look at the numbers that make up the fiscal deficit, such as the revenues available to meet the current expenditures and the sense of purpose behind structural reforms. However even the most hard-bitten observer will concede that there is momentum which must have origin in conceptually sustainable policies, this has been confirmed by the IMF team which has lauded “the concrete policies of the present backed by political determination”. As we go into the final stretch leading to the celebration of the 50th year since Independence, there is a remarkable parallel in July 1947 to July 1997, on a pro-rata basis that is. Our economic forefathers were then faced with imminent bankruptcy for the fledgling nation, being deprived of their allocated share of funds by British “fairplay”, they had too little in the kitty and too much to pay for. The vast difference in 1997 is that in 1947 in contrast to almost nothing in the areas designated for Pakistan, India had a wide range of medium to heavy industries with a sophisticated infrastructure in support. Pakistan virtually caught up in the 60s till the Bhutto hiccups “one” and “two”, father and daughter’s horrendous economic shortcomings paling before the voracious Zardari appetite for unadulterated greed almost put paid to us economically. In the early 60s, we were a model for more than a decade.
Reza Shah, Marcos and Mobutu
Reza Shah, former Shah of Iran in 1979, Ferdinand Marcos, former President of Philippines in 1986 and now Mobutu, former President of Congo (formerly Zaire) in 1997, have much in common. All three are crooks who, having looted the Third World countries they professed to love but ruled as absolute despots without allowing any hint of democracy, went off to seek safer sanctuaries before the people could get their hands on them as they did with the husband-wife combination of the Ceaucescus of Romania. At today’s rate, adjusted for inflation, all three were US ten billion dollar men. More important, at the fag end of their sordid lives, despite all the wealth they accumulated, country after country refused them a bare six feet of earth as a final place of rest. In an ultimate insult to their beings, the countries that were most supportive of them during their years of absolute rule and where they had stashed their looted wealth, refused to allow them entry to enjoy the ill-gotten gains. The ex-Shah of Iran was eventually buried in Egypt (at a price), Ferdinand Marcos’ body remained in an air-conditioned crypt till very recently and stricken with cancer, Mobutu is still searching for a safe haven. For Reza Shah, the exploitation of his wealth two decades ago was relatively easy, not that easy for Marcos about a decade ago and almost impossible for Mobutu presently. At the request of the new Government of the Republic of Congo, countries like Switzerland, France, etc that had his wealth stashed away, conservatively estimated at US$ 10 billion, have frozen all his assets, bank accounts and real-estate, etc included.
While one can have the satisfaction that all three crooks met their comeuppance in not getting to enjoy their ill-gotten wealth, the fact remains that the poverty-stricken population of their respective countries got no real solace. Iran recovered only a fraction of late Reza Shah’s wealth in foreign countries. While Philippines was luckier inasfar as the process they adopted to recover the loot was on a systematic and legal basis, even they managed to get a portion only of the Marcos wealth. However the Filipinos set in motion a process that has changed the world environment inasfar as looted wealth is concerned, it has become that much harder to stash away and have access to looted wealth once not in power. This environment has been made much better by the end of the cold war as the west’s reliance on tinpot dictators has ceased. In Mobutu’s case, despite the recent civil war that preceded his downfall and the precarious ascent of the Kabila regime, Congolese Justice Minister Lawangi moved fast to approach countries like Switzerland, France, etc. where Mobutu’s wealth is mostly located, US$ 5 billion in Swiss Bank accounts alone, and had a quick response to the official request by the newly installed government. Like Reza Shah and Marcos before him, Mobutu is now engaged in an odyssey for a place to die peacefully in, finding it much more harder than Reza Shah and Marcos to find a place in the fading sun, finding it that much harder to gain access to (and thus exploit) his fabulous wealth. Oil-rich Iran, resource-rich Philippines and mineral-rich Congo, all have the capacity to recover from the excesses of their erstwhile leaders, most Third World countries do not have that luxury. Population-rich, economically almost-bankrupt Pakistan neither has any room to manoeuvre or the time to afford such an exercise. Fully US$ 30 billion is estimated to be in the foreign accounts of our politicians, bureaucrats, businessmen, former armed forces and police officers, etc. That is more than the estimated US$ 28 billion national external debt. Recovery of even a quarter of that amount, about US$ 7 billion, would tide us over our debt crisis for three crucial years i.e. US $ 2.33 or Pak Rs 100 billion per year. That is about the amount of the deficit in the Federal Budget. Today the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime has made the right noises about recovering the ill-gotten wealth, yet their moves have been confined to lip-service and have been half-hearted enough to be suspect as to their sincerity. It will need much more commitment on their part and an objectivity in targeting known political criminals, not just those who are in the Opposition (or are not with the government, which according to Chanakhya’s rules” about relationships means the same thing). A definite process of law is required, the rhetoric is meaningless as rhetoric alone cannot fill the empty coffers of the country.
The ‘90 Plus 90 Formula’
The Constitution requires that elections must be held for the Assemblies within 90 days of dissolution, to that end the National Assembly (NA) elections are slated for Feb 3, 1997. On the other hand, the raison d’etre for seeking of a fresh mandate from the people being rampant nepotism and corruption afflicting the Ms Benazir regime, the chief practitioner of the second oldest profession being the lady’s spouse and de facto PM Asif Zardari, the mass public demand for accountability cannot be ignored. Given the time consumed in the mechanics leading to elections and the lead period before the Ehtesab (Accountability) Ordinance becomes effective in implementation a very short period is left for accountability, not enough by far. There is widespread skepticism about the future of the country if elections return such people to the Assemblies who need to be held accountable for the destruction of this country’s economy, its social ethos and national security at the altar of personal greed. It is quite reasonable to presume that having made a packet and then some, it would be in the vested interest of the corrupt and the greedy to ensure their elections by using some of their easily earned but undeserving largesse. Money may not play a decisive part in all the constituencies, it may well play a critical part in some crucial swing ones, enough to affect the course of our future political and economic history back to the dark ages of our own Mafia Don. The traumatic experience of the past three years must encourage us to work out a pragmatic compromise formula allowing the election process to proceed unhindered on schedule while the accountability process is geared to ensuring that every person elected to the Assemblies is given a thorough going over as respect antecedents and integrity before he or she takes oath as a member.
Once the winning candidates are gazetted by the Chief Election Commissioner, the Speakers of the respective Assemblies can call the Assemblies to session so that the Members can take oath, thereafter whoever has a majority in the Assemblies can form the government. This period normally takes about 10-20 days after the elections. It is important to ensure the credibility of the democratic process by staying within the Constitutional parameters defined. While the Constitution is quite clear about the time frame for the elections process, it has not really laid down such a time frame for handing over power post-elections. Conceivably the Speaker could call the National Assembly into session after an extended length of time, maybe even 90 days without violating the Constitution. This God-given window of opportunity can be exploited in a positive manner for the good of the nation under the “doctrine of necessity”. Once the winners are notified by the CEC, the only remaining formality to their sitting in the Assemblies is the oath of office. Once a member takes that oath, in public perception he or she acquires legitimacy, it becomes more difficult to carry out accountability, more so of the ones seated on the Treasury Benches given the political compulsions of the government-in-power that is then subject to blackmail to maintain their majority. Besides blackmail on a very personal basis by her husband Ms Benazir was the target on a political basis by a vast number of politicians leading single-digit parties. The accountability process can be made into an effective roadblock by making the time frame for its completion slightly more flexible. The possibility of certain elimination due to accountability pre- and post-election will dampen their enthusiasm for allocation of party tickets thus easing pressure on the party leadership, a sort of a self-accountability that frees political parties to accommodate credible candidates rather than the less than desirable personalities.
A Chat with Altaf Hussain Abyssyania Lines to Mill Hills
An early recollection as a teenager is of being beaten up by an elder for putting Ms Fatima Jinnah’s election flag atop his house in Abyssynia Lines in the Presidential Elections in 1964, “did he want his father to lose his government job?” Another was the Rs.14,000 his father collected after years of hard work to pay for the ownership of the house in Azizabad now known far and wide as “Nine Zero”. “My father was a Railway Station Master in 1947, a man of some means in those days, he gave that up to migrate to Pakistan, working as a clerk for many years in a distantly located factory”, he says proudly, adding that in many ways his mother did more, not only the back-breaking normal house-keeping chores but also sewing clothes single-mindedly to ensure that the children got education. From such humble non-political roots is today’s Altaf Hussain born, says Altaf Hussain, a political symbol for millions of his ethnic brethren. Loved by many, indeed also despised by many, it is unfair to pass judgment on him without a face-to-face meeting to assess the man and his politics.
Considerably more mellow than he is made out to be, the firebrand and orator in him emerges from time to time whenever a subject and theme he favours or frowns upon surfaces. Gen Babar is one such current favourite object (of hatred), “how can a man without any issue himself, have any feelings about ruthlessly persecuting the children of others? The Mohajir youth are being brutalized, their childhood has been taken away by this self-styled “conqueror” of Karachi”, he asks. Maybe Gen Babar is acting in such fashion, one suggests, as a lightning rod meant to draw the widespread criticism of Ms Benazir after her “cowards and rats” Kasur speech away from her and on himself? This line of reasoning is obviously new to Altaf Hussain, he gives this a little thought before disagreeing since it “tends to exonerate Gen Babar”. He does not condone terrorism, on the contrary he condemns it, “Agencies and hired killers do many of the dirty deeds for which MQM gets the blame”, he protests but questions what is the Mohajir youth supposed to do, uprooted from hearth and home, hungry and hunted, without leadership and out of control? Why cannot he control them through the mesmeric hold he exercises over the broad mass of his constituency? “What is the threshold of pain and endurance they have to bear? Consider their plight and answer me what choices are left to them?” he counter-questions. One concedes it is difficult but that it is the “Karma” of all leaders, to lead their flock through dire straits to the right choices. Silence and then a wry smile!
Back to Sindh’s Future
The PPP’s decisive majority in Sindh is rural-based except for the National Assembly where because of the MQM boycott it shared the MQM’s urban seats with the PML (N). Bouncing back strongly from their strategic blunder which took away their king-maker status at the national level, the MQM took the second largest majority of 27 PA seats, a true reflection of its vote bank among the Mohajir community in the major urban areas.
Compartmentalised into Provincial role, a culmination of the process that started less than two years ago with Operation Clean-up, a sense of deprivation and persecution is endemic among the Mohajir community. Though Operation Clean-up was primarily directed at restoring the rule of law in Sindh in both the urban and major rural areas, their overwhelming urban presence meant that the MQM became the only political party so targeted. In the period pre-Operation Clean-up some of MQM’s militant elements had far exceeded the parameters of civilized behaviour and were openly baiting the army. Having cogent reasons for not being enamoured with the MQM, the Army called their bluff but in their success they need to be magnanimous in the greater interest of national integrity. As seen in their tolerance of the present “democracy”, they can be patient if they have to be. The sins of a handful cannot be visited upon the millions of their innocent kith and kin, Mohajir public opinion is already estranged and getting more bitter by the day.
The Murtaza Factor
Begum Nusrat Bhutto, Co-Chairperson of the Pakistan People’s Party, has announced that her self-exiled son Murtaza Bhutto will contest in the October Elections for both the National Assembly and Provincial Assembly from Sindh for several seats. While it is expected that he will return to the country after the Elections, speculation had been rife for some time that Murtaza would return and take his place in the political life of the country. The only deterrent to his immediate comeback being apprehensions about possible arrest for the many allegations of terrorism that have been preferred against him over the years.
Anticipating the worst for the father, the two sons, Murtaza and Shahnawaz were sent out of Pakistan by the family for the sake of their personal safety while barely out of their teens. As the sons of any father should, they vowed vengeance on Gen Zia and his Martial Law Administration for what they perceived to be murder. The terrorism issue surfaced in the early 80s after the PIA hijacking in which Capt (Retd) Tariq Rahim, formerly ADC to late Mr Bhutto, was brutally murdered at Kabul Airport by the hijackers. Since the hijacking was done in the name of Al-Zulfikar and the sons of Mr Bhutto had come to Kabul Airport to meet the hijackers a conclusion was drawn about their collaboration. It may be remembered that Ajmal Khattak of NAP, who was in self-exile in Kabul at that time, was also alleged to be involved. This was more conjecture than direct evidence but it did serve to establish Al-Zulfikar as a terrorist organisation and the “smoking gun” at Kabul associated Bhutto’s sons with the planning and execution of its operations in the 80s decade. There is always a fine line dividing terrorism from a fight against oppression. At various times, Afghan KHAD, the KGB, Libyans, Syrians, Indian RAW, etc have been identified as financing and controlling Al-Zulfikar’s operations. Murtaza and Shahnawaz (till he died) roamed around as international refugees unable to return home. The terrorism charge made it increasingly difficult for them to travel between countries.
NDI Report, a Clean Bill of Health
Addressing a Press Conference in the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi yesterday, the leader of the NDI delegation, which had come to Pakistan to observe the election process in Pakistan, gave it a general clean bill of health, to the visible disappointment of a large number of foreign correspondents gathered there. Reading a prepared statement, the former Foreign Minister of Turkey, backed up by his full delegation standing behind him, listed certain areas of concern but emphatically denied the allegations of rigging as alleged by the PDA. The NDI team did comment in muted tones about the powers of incumbency, particularly the bias of Pakistan TV, but when asked to compare this in consistency with other third world and Muslim countries, had only the pious hope to offer that democratic practices would improve there also.
What started as a pro-Bhutto exercise, at least in the minds of the people of Pakistan, has ended in a pro-Pakistan scenario. In the face of repeated charges by Ms Benazir about rigging by the Caretaker Government using shenanigans of different nature, the whole world was looking with great interest to the report of the NDI delegation. That they have given a favourable, though qualified, report reinforces the democratic process in Pakistan and allows it to proceed without being bogged down by wild and frivolous allegations bringing our whole electoral process into disrepute. The most pathetic incident happened off the record when a foreign journalist asked Ken Wollack, one of the leading members of the NDI team, whether “this report would go down well with Ms Bhutto’s Democrat friends in US Congress” particularly because the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs was founded by (and mainly made up of) members of the Democratic Party. Mr Wollack replied that while Former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, a leading US liberal Democrat, may be the Chairman, the delegation was made up of both Democrats and Republicans and that they were there as neutral observers and their observations were meant to be truthful and not meant to please anybody in particular, Republicans or Democrats. The suggestion here is that Ms Benazir’s friends in the US Congress, who have been very concerned at the reports of ballot rigging as reported by Ms Benazir herself, may find the variance with the NDI report disturbing.
The Acid Test of Disinvestment
In the face of one of the most far reaching economic decisions of the last two decades, that of allowing commercial banks in the private sector, the Nawaz Sharif Government has simultaneously decided to go whole hog for disinvesting the Nationalised Commercial Banks (NCBs), using Muslim Commercial Bank (MCB) as the guinea pig. Leaders of Third World countries are known to usually try and search for windmills off the beaten track to tilt against, another sorry example of negating an excellent decision by a bad one. The NCBs must compete in a free financial market atmosphere and if they fail to stand the heat, to die a natural death by themselves. Given that Mr. Sartaj Aziz has stated that a comprehensive economic reform package revolutionizing Pakistan’s economy would be announced in 6-8 weeks, this unholy, unseemly rush to offload a commercially viable NCB from public sector aegis becomes more mystifying, to say the least.