The ‘90 Plus 90 Formula’
The Constitution requires that elections must be held for the Assemblies within 90 days of dissolution, to that end the National Assembly (NA) elections are slated for Feb 3, 1997. On the other hand, the raison d’etre for seeking of a fresh mandate from the people being rampant nepotism and corruption afflicting the Ms Benazir regime, the chief practitioner of the second oldest profession being the lady’s spouse and de facto PM Asif Zardari, the mass public demand for accountability cannot be ignored. Given the time consumed in the mechanics leading to elections and the lead period before the Ehtesab (Accountability) Ordinance becomes effective in implementation a very short period is left for accountability, not enough by far. There is widespread skepticism about the future of the country if elections return such people to the Assemblies who need to be held accountable for the destruction of this country’s economy, its social ethos and national security at the altar of personal greed. It is quite reasonable to presume that having made a packet and then some, it would be in the vested interest of the corrupt and the greedy to ensure their elections by using some of their easily earned but undeserving largesse. Money may not play a decisive part in all the constituencies, it may well play a critical part in some crucial swing ones, enough to affect the course of our future political and economic history back to the dark ages of our own Mafia Don. The traumatic experience of the past three years must encourage us to work out a pragmatic compromise formula allowing the election process to proceed unhindered on schedule while the accountability process is geared to ensuring that every person elected to the Assemblies is given a thorough going over as respect antecedents and integrity before he or she takes oath as a member.
Once the winning candidates are gazetted by the Chief Election Commissioner, the Speakers of the respective Assemblies can call the Assemblies to session so that the Members can take oath, thereafter whoever has a majority in the Assemblies can form the government. This period normally takes about 10-20 days after the elections. It is important to ensure the credibility of the democratic process by staying within the Constitutional parameters defined. While the Constitution is quite clear about the time frame for the elections process, it has not really laid down such a time frame for handing over power post-elections. Conceivably the Speaker could call the National Assembly into session after an extended length of time, maybe even 90 days without violating the Constitution. This God-given window of opportunity can be exploited in a positive manner for the good of the nation under the “doctrine of necessity”. Once the winners are notified by the CEC, the only remaining formality to their sitting in the Assemblies is the oath of office. Once a member takes that oath, in public perception he or she acquires legitimacy, it becomes more difficult to carry out accountability, more so of the ones seated on the Treasury Benches given the political compulsions of the government-in-power that is then subject to blackmail to maintain their majority. Besides blackmail on a very personal basis by her husband Ms Benazir was the target on a political basis by a vast number of politicians leading single-digit parties. The accountability process can be made into an effective roadblock by making the time frame for its completion slightly more flexible. The possibility of certain elimination due to accountability pre- and post-election will dampen their enthusiasm for allocation of party tickets thus easing pressure on the party leadership, a sort of a self-accountability that frees political parties to accommodate credible candidates rather than the less than desirable personalities.
The “90 plus 90 formula” really means that while elections are held on schedule within 90 days, the Assemblies are not called into session for another 90 days in order that the accountability process for at least a majority of the elected representatives is complete. Either the President can make a Reference to the Supreme Court for adjudicating a time frame of 90 days post-election or the Caretaker Government can approach the Court for the relief, with the proviso that ordinances enacted by the President during this period will not lapse till 30 days after the Assemblies come into session. There is a temptation for having more than 90 days but while it is necessary to give some time it must be for a very limited period so that those who have got power temporarily i.e. the Caretakers do not get used to it and try and make it more permanent “due to the doctrine of necessity “as per” the will of the people” a la late Gen Zia. Most of them are dedicated to the limited mandate given to them but the democratic credentials of some are rather suspect and the headiness of being in power has its own dynamics that seem to evoke latent ambition. Some of the Caretakers would have never tasted such power except in such special circumstances. We already see in some of their pronouncements hints at possible acquisition of “immortality” in extending their tenure, as such their time frame in office needs to be adequately defined to a 90 days post-election period less we see a repeat of late Gen Zia’s 90-day promise that became open-ended in time till death parted him from absolute power. There is an unholy nexus between those who do not want to face elections, being afraid of the verdict of the electorate, and those who do not want elections to be held because day by day they are getting more comfortable with the trappings of power. Luckily for us both these groups are in a minority at the extreme ends of the spectrum, the broad mass of the people in the middle want elections and accountability, both within a limited time frame.
The Chief Ehtesab Commissioner is geared to launch his own prosecution involving important political personalities in the next few days, the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) will also play a major part in the accountability process as the documents and brief of the prospective candidates will be screened by the Election Commission in all the constituencies of the NA and the PAs. It is also extremely important that the bringing of evidence before the Chief Ehtesab Commissioner must be deliberate rather than hasty, the last time around hard evidence was destroyed in the hurry to bring culprits to trial, this country cannot afford a repetition of that sloppiness and inefficiency (lubricated with money) that allowed the likes of Zardari to escape retribution for crimes committed during Ms Benazir first tenure. As Minister Shahid Hamid had said, the investigating agencies needed “decontamination”. While weeding out clearly ineligible candidates, the list of those found eligible for elections should be sent to the Chief Ehtesab Commissioner, who in exclusion to everything else must concentrate on early processing of the electoral candidates, ensuring that those against whom there is fairly conclusive evidence are eliminated pre-elections. This process of accountability will then have 60 days pre-election and 30 days post-election for completion of the process for the balance of electoral aspirants.
We must not undercut the genius of the people who are fed up with the way they have been treated by the elected representatives over the past 10 years. Ours is an imperfect democracy, that needs to abandon elections on the “first past the post” system and opt for the more credible “run off” election between the first two candidates if any one does not obtain a majority of more than 50% of the votes cast, the distribution of votes allows corrupt electoral candidates to make it to the Assemblies, mainly because of their capacity to use their illegally acquired wealth to influence to elections. The Supreme Court could well instruct that the Election Commission should not gazette the elections till the Chief Ehtesab Commissioner has had a chance to complete the accountability of the winning candidates. With a much shortened list for immediate disposal, the Chief Ehtesab Commissioner should not take more than the 60 days or so stipulated post the elections to do the needful. The remaining 30 days before the Assemblies are called into session may be used to carry out bye-elections of the seats declared vacant because of disqualification of candidates due to the accountability process. Given the limited number of cases to screen, there should be no reason for non-completion of this requirement in the 90 days post-elections, if not completely but at least for 80-90% of the candidates. A preponderance of candidates duly screened and thus given a clean chit would allow the session to be called by the Speakers so that the democratic process may go on. There is great apprehension that unless the accountability process is complete, those who would have been elected but fear accountability will frustrate the process by using public pressure, anybody opting for the streets in the post-election 90 days period should be automatically disqualified.
The “90 plus 90 formula” meets the demands of both elections and accountability, fulfilling both but not at the cost of each other, most importantly within the parameters of the Constitution, it gives legitimacy with respect to public perception. The major opposition to having elections on the scheduled time will come from Ms Benazir who has enough cunning left in her now quite visible schizophrenia to realize that (1) despite the hate she carries for the Army (knowing fully well that they were behind her ouster) she has to avoid offending the Army in her diatribes and (2) that she will get a massive drubbing at the polls if elections do take place. For all her rhetoric to the contrary she will resist both elections and accountability. If such an “escape” from the impending nemesis of accountability by the will of the people is allowed by the powers-that-be this country will pay a far greater price than it has already for the luxury of sustaining the likes of Zardari.
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