Accountability
Damage Control
Rip Van Winkle woke to a new world after sleeping for twenty years, this nation had to wait for 40 years since the Tamizuddin case to wake up from its extended slumber. The immediate feeling is that of euphoria, of complete freedom, the casting away of bureaucratic shackles that have suffocated this country for almost all its life-span. For the foreseeable future the rule of law seems to have been restored but the subsequent dissolution of the Punjab Provincial Assembly has shown that the potential of the Evil Empire for mayhem remains alive though somewhat diminished. For the first time in four decades, the actual rulers of this country, bureaucracy and its “Republican” political allies (mainly from among the landed class) are under pressure from real democracy, not their stunted, guided version of it. The main prop in the persistence of their bluff has been the support of a usually gullible military, in the absence of that support they have been badly exposed as paper tigers at best, at worst as connivers and manipulators. The Nawaz Sharif regime does not have time to gloat over the return of fortune, they have to shift into high gear to rescue the nation from the flat spin that we are now in economically, politically and in the realm of foreign affairs. Mention must be made of the memorable photograph of the Honourable Justices walking out of the Supreme Court Chamber after delivering their historic verdict, the shortest man by far, Chief Justice Mr. Nasim Hassan Shah, seemed to be tallest among a group of men who had good reason to be walking tall. In the individual context, the stoic forbearance of Justice Shafiur Rahman in the face of a profound personal tragedy will remain a shining example in the putting of duty before self.
The humiliated and angry President was persuaded by those he called into the Presidential Palace in the immediate aftermath of the verdict that discretion rather than drastic, desperate means was called for. The short terse release from the Presidential Palace accepting the Supreme Court verdict left unsaid the fact that a trial balloon to gauge the reaction of the men in uniform had been shot down by the Army. In the first instance by a rather vehement (toned down later) disassociation from a seemingly innocent Press release of the Ministry of Defence blatantly intended to influence the Supreme Court and reinforce perception among the masses that the Army was less than neutral in the President’s favour. When this bluff was corrected, the resultant backlash virtually demolished the psychological perception about the President’s source of strength. On the evening of Judgement Day the military hierarchy indicated that it was no longer ready to be a Praetorian Guard, with that the President’s gamble cashing in on his most recent IOUs had failed.
With Bated Breath!
The eloquence of Khalid Anwar and the pronounced filibuster of Aziz Munshi notwithstanding, the merit of the Petitioners case in the Supreme Court against the Presidential Dissolution Order of April 18, 1993 will probably hinge on one crucial finding, did the President have the Constitutional authority to dissolve the National Assembly once it had been called into Session by the Speaker given the fact that once the National Assembly was so-called by the Speaker only he could prorogue it? The extraordinary argument by the Respondent’s Counsel that the President does not hear radio or see TV and so he did not know about the Speaker’s summoning of the NA lends weight to the conviction that even the Respondents concede this point to the Petitioner. Logic would dictate that once the fact of the Speaker’s earlier calling of the National Assembly became known to the President later, his Order should have been subsequently withdrawn. Given this argument as a core of the entire case, one speculates that on this one point alone, the National Assembly will certainly be restored by the Supreme Court.
While his mind has been functioning as sharp as a razor, Aziz Munshi’s heart was quite apparently not into a vigorous Presentation of the Respondent’s arguments. It is demeaning to see a brilliant lawyer searching to establish credibility in the face of the obvious, his arguments did not carry the weight of his own conviction. He seemed to be besieged, fighting a losing battle, probably the best he has been hoping for is a finding by the Honourable Justices of the Supreme Court that Nawaz Sharif may have to seek a fresh vote of confidence from the Members of the National Assembly before he can resume his interrupted stint as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. One can only guess that the in-camera proceedings would carry weight but would not sway the Court. It may be pure speculation but a positive verdict happens to be generally the perception of the intelligentsia and the masses, a street-smart population is almost never wrong. For over four decades they have despaired of being the masters of their own destiny, their so-called public servants having usurped that right and turned them into slaves. Now they see a pronounced ray of hope, any attempt to try and extinguish this by means other than Constitutional would amount to sacrilege, of the ethical and moral kind.
Some Days in May
The indications are that the Caretaker Government has weathered the immediate financial storm that arose out of the Presidential dismissal of the Nawaz Sharif regime and the dissolution of the National Assembly. After a staggering first week when banks had to import US dollars to meet the rush of depositor withdrawals, the run has been stemmed. Except for those panic-stricken in the wake of the make-up of the Caretaker Government, the rest took notice of the repeated pronouncements of the Caretaker Finance Minister that they would continue the liberal policies of the Nawaz Sharif government. While decrying the Singer, this amounted to support for the Nawaz Sharif Song of the three D’s, Deregulation, Disinvestment and Denationalisation. This was a pragmatic acceptance of the obvious, that the policies annunciated by Nawaz Sharif would lead to the economic betterment of the nation and his far-reaching liberal reforms were starting to permeate into society on a broad front.
The fact that the economy has remained stable after surviving such a shock and has not continued to erode is because of the resilience of Pakistan’s economy, primarily because of the parallel economy that still persists in elongevity and secondarily due to the building up of investor confidence in institutions rather than individuals. As such, Nawaz Sharif, in a perverse way, has helped to stabilise the present Caretaker government, they are reaping the benefits of his courage and far-sightedness in unshackling the hold of the bureaucracy on the economy. What has been done in the way of reforms cannot be immediately undone. Market forces, rather than government instructions, have created an in-built resilience. Recognition of the obvious by the Caretaker Government meant that they shied away from being labelled as Undertakers of the economy, what could have happened if the situation had been handled less adroitly is open to speculation.
Death of a Moderate
Azeem Tariq, Chairman MQM and lately leader of his own MQM faction, was brutally murdered in his own house by unknown assailants in the early hours of May Day in a Gang land-type assassination reminiscent of the worst days of Chicago mob warfare. Remaining underground after the army action to restore law and order in the urban areas of Sindh in June 1992, he had emerged from hiding a few months ago and gradually distanced himself from his former colleague and charismatic leader of the MQM, Altaf Hussain, now in self-imposed exile in London. In the past few days before his death, Azeem Tariq had been vocally critical of Altaf Hussain, laying out facts hitherto suspected but not otherwise widely evidenced, that the MQM had been essentially a creation of our intelligence agencies and that he, along with Altaf Hussain, had been regularly receiving money from them particularly during the MQM’s formative years. In countries where democratic institutions are seldom allowed to flourish, intelligence agency sponsored political parties are not a strange phenomenon.
Silent Rage
The government of Nawaz Sharif was sacked on the evening of Sunday April 18, 1993. On the following day, as a reaction to the controversial Presidential action, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) witnessed the largest fall in its share index in one day. Though it did not equal the October 1929 Black Tuesday crash on Wall Street, the fact of the precipitous “Black Monday” dive shook domestic and foreign investor confidence in the state of the economy.
The policies of the previous government were seen to be liberal and supportive of a conducive economic environment. By enacting far-reaching reforms to unshackle the economy from bureaucratic embrace, Nawaz Sharif had inspired sustained economic investment, particularly at the lower end of the economic spectrum. Indeed, this had blown the share market much out of proportion to its real value, corrections in a free market atmosphere had brought share prices to much more realistic levels before Monday’s headlong fall. The fall in share prices may be a reflection of investor confidence being shaken but given a GNP of US $ 50 billion approximately, a capitalisation of US $ 7 billion is relatively small. The unreal high point of 1700 points plus being reached in January 1992, the market index had come down to the 1200 threshold, a psychological benchmark that the former Finance Minister had set as an indicator of impending trouble. If the crisis continues share index may still fall through the 1000 point floor and as such while the Caretaker Government may be determined to change the form of the liberalising reforms enacted by the previous Regime, it has no elbowroom to change the substance as that would reflect adversely on the consistency of our own policies. As it is about Rs 7 billion in share prices has been wiped out and such a financial catastrophe may be difficult for generally new market players to absorb.
The Empire Strikes Back
The political struggle between the President and the PM that initially commenced with having more to do with egos has subsequently developed into a vested interest in retaining power rather than the upholding of any deep-rooted principles. A mass of disinformation has been let loose by both the sides that has kept the masses agog and the intelligentsia on tenterhooks, the business community registering its nervousness at the prevailing uncertainty through a steep decline of the stock market. In a perverse sense the internecine conflict has been a net gain for Pakistan for it has exposed our Parliamentary system for the farce that it actually is, a weak and spineless mechanism prone to Presidential remote control. In the past five years two elected Prime Ministers had become victims of Presidential angst, a third PM has now bitten the dust. We might as well declare the Presidency as a monarchy and be done with such a sham for a democracy.
Despite their own reservations about both the primary personalities involved, sane elements (including this scribe) had been counselling rapprochement between the President and the former PM in the greater national interest till they were blue in the face but to no avail, egos having enlarged to the extent of taking preponderance over anything else. Given the fact that the world political situation has undergone major surgery and we are in the midst of a sustained economic transition, the present political tussle has added to the country’s roller-coaster existence. Despite attempts at appeasement by the PM and his colleagues, the President has been as unforgiving as ever, driving Nawaz Sharif into such a corner that in a most uncharacteristic and surprising move he declared independence of the Head of Government from the Head of State, not a bad thing in itself in a Parliamentary system. The President’s mood had blackened over the PM’s alleged “indiscretions” in deliberately delaying to nominate him immediately as the PML candidate for the next Presidential election as soon as he had the mandate from the PML and for suggesting a repeal and/or amendment of the 8th Amendment. Having learnt nothing from Munich and appeasement thereof, the former PM had backtracked smartly on both the issues but the trust factor had already evaporated and did not satisfy those around Ghulam Ishaq Khan baying for Nawaz Sharif’s blood, particularly those who felt left out of the political and administrative mainstream, a habit that fails to die among old bureaucrats. Attempting to hound the PM out of office by a combination of bluff and bluster, the President’s men made the cardinal mistake of crossing a fail-safe line of courage and self-respect that is an in-built quality in all human beings, the potential to fight back in extreme adversity. The President may now have the PM’s head on a platter by sacking him and dissolving the National Assembly but he should re-read Homer’s Iliad, the admonition of the mother of Achilles to Achilles was not to kill Hector as he would not survive Hector’s death by long. It is common knowledge that the President has an extremely pronounced Achilles Heel in the form of the Presidential sons-in-laws. The citizens of this country may be forgiven for feeling that the country is being held hostage on their behalf.
The Last Hurrah
The word “principle” is usually missing from the epithet-laden vocabulary of Pakistani politics, not so in the case of the lately lamented former Prime Minister of Pakistan and President of Pakistan Muslim League, Mohammad Khan Junejo. Brought in essentially as a puppet on a string by the late Gen Zia in his version of democracy, the late Junejo displayed his mettle by quietly refusing to let the vestiges of Martial Law survive with democracy. He made up for a singular lack of charisma by the sheer strength of his character, setting accountability in motion in a society afflicted with the Unaccountable by sacking some powerful Cabinet colleagues against whom there was prima-facie evidence of corruption. A man of old world courtesy and grace, his opponents found it impossible to criticise him on weaknesses normally attributable to politicians. The Geneva Accord on Afghanistan in the face of late President Zia’s inflexibility on key issues was Junejo’s most memorable foreign policy achievement, on the domestic front he left a lasting impression about the only genuine initiative in Pakistani history about austerity by his symbolic Suzuki-isation programme. Late Gen Zia ostensibly sacked him as PM because of Junejo’s determination to take action for those criminally culpable for the Ojhri Camp blast, in reality the senior members of the bureaucracy who could not stomach any more erosion of their service “perks” worked toward (and benefited most from) his ouster. Lying sick with terminal Leukemia in far away John Hopkins Hospital in USA, he had unknowingly become a bone of contention within the PML, a rallying point for the anti-Nawaz Sharif dissenters. His demise is thus extremely untimely as he could have stemmed the self-destruction mode the PML is presently programmed into.
Inaugurating the Fish Harbour at Gwadar, the Prime Minister made the first public move at checking the rot in his government (and PML internal politics from rapidly resembling a fish market) by denying any rift between him and the President. Where there is smoke there is bound to be a fire and while his categorical denial was quite unbelievable given the regular one-way traffic to the President by a mix of political dissenters at odds between themselves but united in their hate-Nawaz chorus, the symbolic waving of the white flag was quite welcome and showed political maturity. Whatever may be the President’s misgivings, the ball is now firmly in his court to reciprocate.
Big Leaders, Small People
As the year 1993 dawned in Pakistan, the destiny of the country was in the hands of three powerful men, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz Sharif and the COAS, General Asif Nawaz Janjua, otherwise known as the “TROIKA”. Barely six months or so later, such is fate that all three have disappeared from the controls of the nation, at least one temporarily.
The first to go was Gen Asif Nawaz, his sudden heart attack and demise cut short an illustrious career, precipitating the crisis that saw the remaining two members of the “Troika” fight among themselves and ultimately relinquish their seats of power. To the former President’s chagrin this was on the prompting of the man hand-picked by him as the replacement for the late COAS. Before that Rubicon was crossed, the country has been reduced into political and economic shambles. For whatever it is worth, Ms Benazir Bhutto, who started the year in the political wilderness, seems to be the only beneficiary of having driven the country into this crisis. One believes that in winning a battle, she may be celebrating a bit too soon and may have lost the war. For the record, she has another shot at becoming the Prime Minister of the country. If she loses again, we can have another Long March.
NDI Report, a Clean Bill of Health
Addressing a Press Conference in the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi yesterday, the leader of the NDI delegation, which had come to Pakistan to observe the election process in Pakistan, gave it a general clean bill of health, to the visible disappointment of a large number of foreign correspondents gathered there. Reading a prepared statement, the former Foreign Minister of Turkey, backed up by his full delegation standing behind him, listed certain areas of concern but emphatically denied the allegations of rigging as alleged by the PDA. The NDI team did comment in muted tones about the powers of incumbency, particularly the bias of Pakistan TV, but when asked to compare this in consistency with other third world and Muslim countries, had only the pious hope to offer that democratic practices would improve there also.
What started as a pro-Bhutto exercise, at least in the minds of the people of Pakistan, has ended in a pro-Pakistan scenario. In the face of repeated charges by Ms Benazir about rigging by the Caretaker Government using shenanigans of different nature, the whole world was looking with great interest to the report of the NDI delegation. That they have given a favourable, though qualified, report reinforces the democratic process in Pakistan and allows it to proceed without being bogged down by wild and frivolous allegations bringing our whole electoral process into disrepute. The most pathetic incident happened off the record when a foreign journalist asked Ken Wollack, one of the leading members of the NDI team, whether “this report would go down well with Ms Bhutto’s Democrat friends in US Congress” particularly because the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs was founded by (and mainly made up of) members of the Democratic Party. Mr Wollack replied that while Former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, a leading US liberal Democrat, may be the Chairman, the delegation was made up of both Democrats and Republicans and that they were there as neutral observers and their observations were meant to be truthful and not meant to please anybody in particular, Republicans or Democrats. The suggestion here is that Ms Benazir’s friends in the US Congress, who have been very concerned at the reports of ballot rigging as reported by Ms Benazir herself, may find the variance with the NDI report disturbing.
The Consensus Factor
Two weeks into Ms. Benazir’s formation of the Federal Government, the political truce seems to be holding except for occasional sniping by over-zealous supporters of either side. This has been possible because of the remarkable transformation in the attitude of the leaders of both the major political groupings in contrast to both 1988 and 1990. The post-election moves seem to confirm that both the political groupings do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past. The Federal Government usually has the initiative with respect to bad faith, under critical cynosure the restraint exercised by the PPP across a broad front has been praiseworthy. Contrary to expectations their manner (or mannerisms) do not evoke any reproach, in return the PML(N), in keeping with Mian Nawaz Sharif’s excellent maiden speech as Leader of the Opposition, has reciprocated in good faith. It may not exactly be a “love-fest” as yet, at least sanity prevails and that is why there is peace on our part of Earth.
This peace is likely to be tested in the contest for President, the process of which started on Sunday last with the filing of nomination papers by various candidates. There is a good deal of uncertainty prevailing because of the lack of a clear majority by either side in electoral votes, the PPP-PML(J) combine has 171 electoral votes while the PML(N)-ANP alliance commands 170 electoral votes. With the JWP, BNM(M), NPP, PQP and most of the Minorities supporting the PPP, their count goes upto by 40 to 211 electoral votes. With another 22 confirmed votes of independents, the PPP-led alliance comes tantalisingly close to an outright victory (235 votes) by having 233 electoral votes.