Emerging Election Alliances
With about 50 days to go for the Elections, election alliances/electoral adjustments are now taking shape. While the final list of candidates will be a sure evidence of the actual compromises made, it is comparatively safe to give a broad outline of the emerging scenario pertaining to the effect that the alliances and adjustments may make on the eventual outcome.
The Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDA), of which the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is a major member, comes out intact, in fact adding to its original strength pre-April 18, 1993. It may have lost Tehrik-i-Istaqlal but has gained significantly because of the defection of PML (Junejo) faction led by Chattha from PML(N). Individual members of the Chattha Group are potent political beings (though Chattha himself may find it difficult to get re-elected) and will cause considerable problems for Nawaz Sharif in the Punjab and Sarhad. The PPP-JUI(F)-PML(J) combine in the NWFP has become a formidable force in its own right and a tough fight is expected with the PML(N)-ANP alliance. However, the Alliance is facing a lot of strain from the internal PPP problems about seat allocation. During the Balakh Sher Caretaker period and after, the Sindh Government under Muzaffar Shah (Pir Pagara faction of PML) had supported the anti-Nawaz Sharif forces because of GIK’s influence through son-in-law Irfanullah Marwat but in Sindh the PDA and PML (Pir Pagara) remained opposed to each other, a sort of an armed truce. In Sindh, the three contending forces are PPP predominantly, opposed by the Pir Pagara faction of PML and the MQM. PML(N) is almost non-existent but there are enough Nawaz Sharif supporters in every constituency to have nuisance value. The PPP really does not need any electoral alliance in Sindh but will probably leave out a few seats as a part of the general agreement with other parties. This will be a real sacrifice and will not be taken kindly by its rank and file, PPP seat aspirants are a vocal, aggressive lot.
