Soldiering and Politicking
The October 2002 elections should see the Army, if not it’s Commander, back in the barracks, hardly surprising the rumour machines are working overtime and the “the natives (read “politicians”) are getting restless”. Having spent 30 months out in the cold, they have watched fitfully as the contorted manner of politics in Pakistan they were happy with has sought to be changed by the military regime in an attempt to convert democracy from the farce it was into a realistic exercise. To an extent the Local Bodies elections accomplishes that purpose but indirect elections for Nazims and Naib Nazims made that effort meaningless. Any post in the world, first world or the third, where the vote can be manipulated, does not truly represent the electorate it serves. Citing cost, the country’s present rulers have reverted to the practice of attempting “selections” instead of allowing those representative of elections. With all the apathy among the voters, the fact that even this military regime with all sincerity in their intentions, have not been able to bring about pragmatic and meaningful change, will further dissipate voter interest in the electoral process. Every elected post must be subject to universal adult franchise, or we will reap the consequences of another military coup post-Musharraf, and it will not so far be away in the future. We have been lucky with Pervez Musharraf, there could be a Sani Abacha down the line.
During the past year the President’s modus operandi has been routine. Before officially announcing a decision already made by him earlier but not announced, he first summons “the college of cardinals” ie. the Corps Commanders to plug any loopholes and then goes into a round of very public consultations with groups comprising political parties, intellectuals and academics, media personalities, etc, ostensibly to seek their advice and counsel, actually to lobby for and drum up support. To his credit he has modulated his decisions from time to time to reflect informed criticism, he has used the process quite successfully and effectively to build consensus, particularly since the period leading upto the Agra Summit in July. This time around since the consultative series initiated by the President is politician-heavy, he is finding the going difficult. The problem arises not only because of a whole set of detractors but also those who wish him well. They have built up a crescendo, both for and against a referendum on the President’s continuity post-elections. Aside from the fact that he will get bogged down in a legal minefield in attempting the referendum, the politicians who count have suddenly discovered a rallying point that gives them hope of revival of their dissipating fortunes. And the politicians who do not count are counting on the referendum to display to the President they are “more loyal than the king”, they will wait to gouge out their pound of flesh later. For the first time since Oct 12, 2002, Pervez Musharraf is on ground which is not of his choosing and one hopes that the political morass does not engulf him.
The Media Success Story
The Agra Summit had not even finished when the Indians launched a full scale analysis of what had gone wrong with their set gameplan to expose Pervez Musharraf the military dictator as a showcase of autocracy in sharp contrast to the relative freedom enjoyed by the world’s “largest democracy”. In New Delhi on the way to the Summit at Agra, Musharraf succeeded in one short day in becoming a media darling in the eyes of the Indian public in contrast to his Kargil-monster painted image. Belatedly the Indians woke up to the fact that things were not going according to script. While 15 July was a relative lull, they pounced on the now famous breakfast meeting on 16 July with Indian editors/publishers as a blatant Pakistan ploy to pressurize India by conducting diplomacy through the media. Short shrift was given to the fact that it was not any Pakistani devious plan but a Pranoy Roy initiative to air the breakfast meeting on Star TV, and that the other Indian TV Stations just picked it up so as not to remain behind. The Indians conveniently also forgot that it was Sushma Swaraj who had gone on a fishing expedition a day earlier with depth charges meant to scuttle the peace process. Much was made of Secretary Information Anwar Mahmood’s public disclaimer about Sushma’s claims that there were no discussions about Kashmir at Agra in the one-on-one between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee.
While preparing a set-piece battleground for complete diplomatic and media victory, India had not counted on the rebellious nature of the Pakistani print media which fights each other and the government in power at all times but invariably come together in a time of crisis (or on hostile territory) behind whoever is the ruler. Agra was a Pervez Musharraf success story, he won the media war hands down. He was ably supported by a galaxy of media personalities from Pakistan, for once Pakistan came away from an important international event with the sweet smell of success. This success can be laid squarely on the military regime’s free media policy. It seems India badly miscalculated that the Pakistan print media would badmouth an unelected President of a military regime and embarrass him no end in a foreign land on international primetime. They did not count on the solid support he had painstakingly generated by the biggest gamble of all, he took a calculated risk in conceivably being the only military regime in history to have a free media. What he got back in return is a grudging legitimacy normally denied to military rulers. By the time the Indians realized they had badly miscalculated and belatedly attempted damage control, Pakistan’s media was ruling the Indian airwaves. One must commend the freedom and sophistication of the Indian electronic media, their potential is nothing short of tremendous. This freedom was used to maximum effect by Pakistani print media-persons, who in turn benefit from being far freer than India’s print media.