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The Inferno Within
For a person who led a relentless struggle in the 80s decade for the restoration of unadulterated democracy in Pakistan, Ms Benazir displays a remarkable obduracy in refusing to recognize the ground realities of the increasingly anarchical situation in Karachi. Though it is true that fate intervened rather fortuitously to her advantage, one cannot take the credit away from Ms Benazir’s struggle against dictatorship (and vestiges thereof) with respect to the restoration of democracy in Pakistan. The then Establishment tried to stop her in her tracks by the cobbling together of the IJI by Maj Gen (later Lt Gen Retd) Hameed Gul, the then DG ISI, but the people of Pakistan gave her enough NA seats to be the prime contender to form the Federal Government. Even when the sizeable MQM bloc changed sides in late 1989, she survived a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, mostly because both the intelligentsia and the masses continued to believe in her recurring song of democracy.
During her long stint in the cold, Ms Benazir had repeatedly pointed out that with drugs and Kalashnikovs flooding into the urban cities of Pakistan, particularly Karachi, there was a dire necessity to usher in democracy immediately to “counter the dangerous vacuum created by Martial Law and dictatorship at the grassroots level because of the lack of leadership duly elected by the people.” Her contention rightly was that a mixture of ethnic and sectarian bigots along with mobsters, drug barons, foreign-trained terrorists etc, would flood into this void, anybody who could wield power through the power of forcible suggestion, more potently, through the barrel of a gun. Ms Benazir Bhutto had very rightly advocated that the only solution to avoid apocalypse was to have free and fair elections at every tier of government so that credible, authentic leaders would emerge, with their roots in a rock-solid base because of the peoples’ confidence in their abilities and person.
A City without Leadership
For a person who led a relentless struggle in the 80s decade for the restoration of unadulterated democracy in Pakistan, Ms Benazir displays a remarkable obduracy in refusing to recognize the ground realities of the increasingly anarchical situation in Karachi. Though it is true that fate intervened rather fortuitously to her advantage, one cannot take the credit away from Ms Benazir’s struggle against dictatorship (and vestiges thereof) with respect to the restoration of democracy in Pakistan. The then Establishment tried to stop her in her tracks by the cobbling together of the IJI by Maj Gen (later Lt Gen Retd) Hameed Gul, the then DG ISI, but the people of Pakistan gave her enough NA seats to be the prime contender to form the Federal Government. Skepticism notwithstanding, enough MNAs lined up behind her in non-grudging support to translate her lead into a majority in Parliament by the flawed means that is acceptable to us presently as the Constitution of the land. Even when the sizeable MQM bloc changed sides in late 1989, she survived a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, mostly because both the intelligentsia and the masses continued to believe in her recurring song of democracy.
During her long stint in the cold, Ms Benazir had repeatedly pointed out that with drugs and Kalashnikovs flooding into the urban cities of Pakistan, particularly Karachi, there was a dire necessity to usher in democracy immediately to “counter the dangerous vacuum created by Martial Law and dictatorship at the grassroots level because of the lack of leadership duly elected by the people.” Her contention rightly was that a mixture of ethnic and sectarian bigots along with mobsters, drug barons, foreign-trained terrorists etc, would flood into this void, anybody who could wield power through the power of forcible suggestion, more potently, through the barrel of a gun. Ms Benazir Bhutto had very rightly advocated that the only solution to avoid apocalypse was to have free and fair elections at every tier of government so that credible, authentic leaders would emerge, with their roots in a rock-solid base because of the peoples’ confidence in their abilities and person.
The Great Silent Majority
Charismatic leaders of the third world may come to power on a wave of public adulation but retain their chairs only through the support of the Great Silent Majority among the masses. This support may initially be based on the residuals of euphoria of an election campaign, can be sustained only through achievements taken note of by the masses, particularly pertaining to their economic well-being, not unrelated to a sound law and order situation. When the public confidence in hollow rhetoric starts to erode, the balloon of popularity starts to deflate fairly rapidly, the end reaction can be quite damning.
Ms Benazir Bhutto’s ascent to power was preordained for several reasons, some positive and some negative. The positive reasons were her undeniable charisma, a lasting admiration for her late father, her stated manifesto and above all the massive western media support based on admiration for her brave struggle, translating into vital support within the vocal liberal wing of the political structures of the western nations, particularly in the Democratic Party in the US. Though PPP got a supposedly split mandate, she enjoyed the grudging support of even those who probably did not vote for her party. The negative support for her was because of antipathy towards late Gen Zia and his dictatorial rule, May 29 Junejo Government massacre being the last straw for even his moderate supporters. This was further accentuated by the penchant of the masses for genuine unadulterated democratic freedom and the natural inclination for change after a long hiatus, any change. After May 29, 1988 change just became a matter of time, Aug 17 was simply a tragic milestone along nature’s way to a free and fair election, as much as any election in a third world country can be called as such. To their undying credit, the military hierarchy kept the constitutional faith, strengthening the hands of the President in his clear choice of the leader of the majority party in the National Assembly, Ms Benazir of PPP, to form the Federal Government. For many reasons, again positive and negative, Ms Benazir needed to become the Prime Minister of Pakistan, despite her detractors there is no ambiguity or controversy about her ascent to power, this was as it should have been, added to that she seemingly had overwhelmed the regionalists in Sindh.
The Great Silent Majority
Charismatic leaders of the third world may come to power on a wave of public adulation but retain their chairs only through the support of the Great Silent Majority among the masses. This support may initially be based on the residuals of euphoria of an election campaign, can be sustained only through achievements taken note of by the masses, particularly pertaining to their economic well-being, not unrelated to a sound law and order situation. When the public confidence in hollow rhetoric starts to erode, the balloon of popularity starts to deflate fairly rapidly, the end reaction can be quite damning.
Ms Benazir Bhutto’s ascent to power was pre-ordained for several reasons, some positive and some negative. The positive reasons were her undeniable charisma, a lasting admiration for her late father, her stated manifesto and above all the massive western media support based on admiration for her brave struggle, translating into vital support within the vocal liberal wing of the political structures of the western nations, particularly in the Democratic Party in the US. Though PPP got a supposedly split mandate, she enjoyed the grudging support of even those who probably did not vote for her party. The negative support for her was because of antipathy towards late Gen Zia and his dictatorial rule, May 29 Junejo Government massacre being the last straw for even his moderate supporters. This was further accentuated by the penchant of the masses for genuine unadulterated democratic freedom and the natural inclination for change after a long hiatus, any change. After May 29, 1988 change just became a matter of time, Aug 17 was simply a tragic milestone along nature’s way to a free and fair election, as much as any election in a third world country can be called as such. To their undying credit, the military hierarchy kept the constitutional faith, strengthening the hands of the President in his clear choice of the leader of the majority party in the National Assembly, Ms Benazir of PPP, to form the Federal Government. For many reasons, again positive and negative, Ms Benazir needed to become the Prime Minister of Pakistan, despite her detractors there is no ambiguity or controversy about her ascent to power, this was as it should have been, added to that she seemingly had overwhelmed the regionalists in Sindh.
Fuelling Inflation
Having written barely eight weeks ago about the Federal Government’s “austere monetary policy” and “tight fiscal control” which had kept inflation “within acceptable limits”, it is not very palatable to eat one’s words, in the face of the evidence at hand one has to. That Ms Benazir’s Government has increased fuel prices in a mini-Budget barely 3 months from the annual Federal Budget is not the only problem, it potentially carries the force-multiplier effect of instituting double digit inflation, it is the type of economic time-bomb that brings political fortunes into question.
The Ostrich Syndrome
The ruling PPP seemed to strike a discordant note at the hierarchical level at the beginning of this week. It is true that the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the NA had been trying to establish their writ (in independence of their party position) by insisting on the sanctity of their ruling in bringing the arrested MNAs to the House. However, the surprising Presidential hint that he would not hesitate to use his Constitutional role if he had to in the face of the worsening law and order situation in Karachi as well as the need to bring in MQM from the cold was in direct contrast to the PM’s assertion that “MQM should rein in its terrorists.” Having been on the receiving end of foreign policy disasters one after the other since the beginning of her reign, PM Ms Benazir had put in all her well known potential for persuasion into the OIC at Casablanca and thereupon savoured the first foreign policy success of sorts in bringing Kashmir to world attention by getting the participants to adopt a resolution, though it may be said quite reluctantly, by the likes of our so-called friends, Hosni Mubarak, Yasser Arafat, etc. That the PM may have been waylaid by the misleading reports given to her by her aides is perhaps the only excuse one can have for her failure to acknowledge that disaster is facing us in the face at Karachi. Having her power-base in rural Sindh, Ms Benazir has to come to terms without any further delay with the urban majority MQM in a spirit of give and take.
Given the deteriorating circumstances, the launching of Operation Clean-Up in May 1992 was necessary. The situation in the Province was reaching anarchical proportions and the then military hierarchy surmised that the populace was fed up of the transgressions and would respond positively. In the initial stages Operation Clean-Up was extremely successful in both the rural and urban areas but the latter exercise became a victim of serving individuals in mufti (in contrast to their uniformed colleagues for the most part) misusing their authority to unleash ill-conceived vendetta targeted on the MQM (only) in trying to bring about political change by military means, a non-starter as any avid student of history can confirm. Fighting in built-up areas while keeping civilian casualties down is not an easy task, the planning of the Operation by the then Corps Commander Lt Gen Naseer Akhtar was outstanding and its execution by his Comd Corps Reserve, Maj Gen Malik Saleem Khan was brilliant. However, the joker in the pack was the ill-conceived organising of the MQM (H) into a potent anti-MQM weapon. The MQM(H) may have genuine grievances but these latter day Quislings have served only to create a backlash among the Mohajir community to absolute resuscitation of Altaf Hussain’s waning fortunes in self-imposed exile. The MQM(H) exists today as a tragic but sore bone of contention in the search for urban peace. Instead of allowing the law of nature to take its course in establishing detente between the warring parties, those who were sidelined, some even being subsequently forced into early retirement for various misdemeanours involving corruption, greed, misuse of authority, etc have re-surfaced. Having ruthlessly exploited the MQM(H) previously, they are now again engaged actively in promoting disorder and anarchy by remote control. What is their “connection” that they cannot be made to answer for their crimes against humanity? The PM gave a broad hint to this effect before she left for Casablanca and repeated it again in a party Parliamentary meeting, why is GOP not bringing them to book with the same alacrity they showed for Mian Muhammad Sharif?
A Political Compromise Formula
A couple of weeks ago, the Leader of the Opposition, former PM Mian Nawaz Sharif, had unveiled a comprehensive policy package to overcome the growing political crisis. The policy package of 9 points was made conditional upon 7 additional steps. Very briefly the package envisages (1) guarantee for elected Assemblies to complete their 5 years term with the results of the general elections binding on all parties and that no movement against the government be launched (2) independent members to join a political party prior to taking oath as Assembly members (3) for a period of 10 years no vote of confidence against the PM (4) powers vested in one individual that infringe upon sovereignty of Parliament be removed (5) women’s seat in Parliament be restored (6) procedure for appointments in judiciary be reformed (7) mode of participation of Leader of Opposition in national affairs be defined (8) constitutional guarantees be provided for conducting free and fair elections and (9) to eliminate corruption and misuse of authority, a sovereign institution be set up. While there may be some legal and procedural debate about circumscribing the powers of Assembly members to launch a vote of confidence against a PM for a period of 10 years, most of these proposals, except for binding the legislators against a “no confidence” motion which prima-facie would lead to a political dictatorship, are sensible prima-facie and the Bhutto government could theoretically give a short “OK” to the package in principle before sitting down to thrash out details that need elaboration.
The problem arises with the preliminary demands of the Leader of the Opposition, viz. (1) an election schedule be announced after which both President and PM should resign (2) the NA should not be dissolved so that constitutional amendments envisaged aforementioned can be passed (3) a caretaker PM be elected from the present Assembly by consensus of the two major parties so that he (or she) can make arrangements for conducting fresh elections (4) both political parties should hold dialogue under the Caretaker PM in order to formulate the new constitutional amendments (5) the caretaker President in consultations with the two major parties appoint non-partisan, non-controversial Governors (6) upon passing of the Constitutional amendments the Caretaker PM should dissolve the National Assembly and Governors, on the advice of the Caretaker President should dissolve the Provincial Assemblies, under the new constitutional arrangement, the Chief Election Commissioner should conduct fresh election with 90 days with the help of the Caretaker National and Provincial governments. One does not have to be a clairvoyant to come to the surmise that the Bhutto government will deliver a short emphatic “NO” to the aforementioned and gird its loins to meet the challenge in the streets, violently if need be. While the Opposition had been successful in bringing their protests out into the streets, the end results have fallen far short of shaking the Ms Benazir Government, what to talk about dislodging the regime.
Resuscitating a City Let No One Write Karachi Epitaph
The last fortnight has witnessed a focussing of national priorities with the very visible personal intervention of the PM in coming to grips with the ever-increasing problems of this vast metropolitan port city. Present in Karachi because of a family tragedy, Ms Benazir herself also became a victim of the massive blackout that hit the Province of Sindh and the city of Karachi. The miseries of rain-induced power shortage were further accentuated by a series of mysterious fires in power houses and grid stations. It would have taken an extremely insulated ruler, or a callous one perhaps, to remain impervious to the rapidly declining state of this leaderless city. Galvanized into action, the PM phased her approach to first providing immediate succour and relief, succeeding in instilling some urgency into the efforts of the Administration and the public sector utilities responsible for the bad state of affairs in the first place. Very visibly she did not show much confidence in the Provincial Government politicos or functionaries. However, in adopting a narrow political approach instead of a pragmatic and logical course as a democratically elected leader of bringing the city’s elected representatives into the solution mainstream in trying to keep the city going down the tube, she cast doubt on the credibility of the whole exercise.
This city is running on sheer momentum. Operation Clean Up had driven the urban political cadres underground, creating a leadership vacuum exactly when such a leadership was desperately needed at the grassroots level. The major factor contributing to the present socio-political crisis has been the indifferent, inefficient and almost non-existent civil administration of this metropolis. A city management that has no commitment to the people can never succeed. Without central direction and bereft of its elected representatives at the grass-roots level, the city’s infra-structure has gone to seed, the peace of earlier years has now been compounded by ethnic and sectarian clashes, further complicated by the lawless who have taken advantage of the uncertain environment with a spate of dacoities, kidnappings for ransom, etc. Well directed in the rural areas, in the urban areas Operation Clean Up separated into two parallel operations, one directed by uniformed personnel, the other by the shadowy men in mufti, badly compromising the integrity of the original mission whose prime targets were to be dacoits and kidnappers. Certainly there were militants in the MQM who had gone way past the pale of the law and needed to be brought to heel but insincerity in the intent and objectives of the men in mufti in contrast to the overall strategic plan as laid out to the then political government ensured that the Army found itself in sole confrontation with the MQM in deviation from its original objectives. The MQM hierarchy compounded the situation by abandoning their responsibility to the masses lock, stock and barrel and going underground. In the resulting leadership vacuum, a new breed of militants surfaced providing enemy agencies such as RAW with a gleeful opportunity to create mayhem. Writing in THE NATION, we had advised the immediate closure of the Indian Consulate General in Karachi (A DEN OF EVIL, June 28, 1994), one hopes that after the SAARC Foreign Ministers Conference in Dhaka (which has just ended) this will be done without further delay. RAW agents from this well of snakes are spreading poison in Karachi’s bloodstream. On Sunday, August 31, 1994 a Swiss national, Mr Fritz Jasser, was shot dead by two motorcyclists while driving a diplomatic vehicle, such is the state of lawlessness.
Breakdown of a City
A fortnight of rain devastation has made Karachi into a city under internal siege, beset by electricity and water problems. As the civic infrastructure collapsed past the point of overload, irate citizens have been protesting violently in front of KESC and KWSB sub-units. A gradual erosion of civic discipline over the past few weeks has been manifest in the masses venting their increasing frustration on a whole range of issues on the more visible and immediate causes leading to their present misery. On Friday July 22, 1994, a massive power shutdown paralysed most of the Province of Sindh for over six hours, some areas in Karachi came on line after 24 hours in some cases. Worse was to follow! On Saturday July 23, 1994, a “flash” led to a fire in the Gizri Grid Station blacking out almost the entire South of Karachi. Many areas (including this scribe) are still without electricity or water for over 48 hours later despite Herculean efforts by the KESC to effect emergency repairs. Not to be outdone in compounding the situation, anti-State forces, ever ready to fan ethnic and religious disturbances, lobbed a grenade into a bus, killing eight and wounding many others. But for the presence of mind of the bus driver, who drove the carnage vehicle straight to a hospital, the casualty list would have been much higher.
The power shutdown symbolically represents a greater breakdown psychologically, that of the social and economic fabric of the nation. As the civic facilities go past the fail-safe line, the seething frustration of the masses is coming to a boil. While all this was fairly predictable, the shocking aspect of the whole affair seems to be that nobody seems to be incharge of this great port city, the economic lifeline to the nation. Indeed despite Ms Benazir’s best efforts, there seem to be a crisis of leadership in the entire country. As far as Karachi is concerned, the Sindh CM seems to have abdicated responsibility. Since the elected Mayor and his councillors have been largely sidelined, a grey area exists between the civil administration and the LEAs. The LEAs are responsible for law and order problems but the civil administration is adrift for the most part, responding half-heartedly to both the political and military leadership, unsure as to whom to turn for central direction. The tragedy is that no single entity exists to organise and coordinate civic relief to the masses of Karachi, whether in crisis or normal times. During the rain devastation the civil administration was totally dependant upon individual dedication and initiative rather than any coordinated, cohesive countering of the catastrophe. In modern cities, a central CRISIS CONTROL automatically takes over most of the TV and radio time to give directions (and relief) to the public, here PTV remained an oblivious bystander, giving only passing mention to the unfolding tragedy. Over a 100 lives have been lost in Karachi due to the unprecedented rains and related problems, why is the administration sitting on its haunches, if not its hands?
The Federal Budget – Mixed Nuts
At the best of times, balancing the Federal Budget is a Houdini-like thankless exercise in any country of the world, the populace yearning for more services and facilities while the national exchequer has less and less (on a pro-rata basis) to pay for them. The Federal Finance Minister (or of State) is thus usually faced with a Catch-22 problem and it is rarely that innovative changes providing genuine relief to the common man have been proposed or enacted. Makhdoom Shahabuddin’s plight reminds one of the various examinations of the Army where it was required that the officer certify that he did not know the contents of the Question Paper BEFORE he took the Examination. Capt (Retd) Asghar A. Jilani, pushed into doing his “Lower Urdu” Examination, “certified that he did not know the contents of the Question Paper BEFORE, DURING or AFTER the Examination”. So let it be with the Makhdoom, who did a reasonable task of presenting the Budget but remained blissfully oblivious of the real facts, as did most of us, contained in his eloquent Presentation.
In the economic circumstances prevailing, successive Finance Ministers over the years, barring the salutary and honourable exception of Senator Sartaj Aziz, have been fairly predictable in providing the bureaucratic recourse of draconian answers to the mounting column of red ink as regards the Federal Debt. For political governments to take tough steps that would alienate the masses is a difficult proposition and as such an exercise in camouflage routinely becomes more important than the substance of the Budget propositions. In sum, while the economic circumstances were bad enough to warrant stringent measures, the political circumstances are worse. Given such overtones it is hard to condemn such tactics, all being fair in love and war! In a neat PR ploy, the rhetoric of the PM had prepared the masses to be ready for the worst, by not going the orthodox route with her implied threats she temporarily diverted the attention of the masses and thus stole the thunder from the Opposition. This has only delayed the inevitable, both with respect to mounting deficits and street reaction. What we have is much less in perceived taxation than we had expected but certainly much more than what is presently prevalent. For the moment the battle is one between perception and reality, for the moment perception has won out but reality will catch up sooner than later. If Ms Benazir cannot hold the line in the face of mounting Federal Debt we may eventually end up far worse than we would have been than if she had taken the avowed tough road. However even the greatest cynic has to acknowledge that she seems to have drawn first blood by not giving the Opposition immediate tangible evidence, in the first-reading the taxation is so well camouflaged that even experts have had trouble unravelling them even many days later. The PM gambled with the fact that by the time the people finally get to read between the lines as well as the fine print and begin to feel the sharp edge of the hidden steel it may be too late for the Opposition to take the masses to the streets. It shall be interesting to see whether Ms Benazir gets away with it. However A’s are in order to the PM both for packaging and sheer audacity. Whether she can sustain her proposed indirect taxation measures through the NA and “Special Interest Groups” is another matter. If she fails in getting her indirect measures approved, she (and the country) will have a splitting red headache. The Catch-22 is that if she manages to get it through the NA, the economy will suffer.