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The Parameters of Fairplay
Requiring the Chief Executive of any Government to appear in person in any court of law is unprecedented, not only in Pakistan. Even in the United States, President Clinton has been fighting to avoid fighting court cases while he is President, what to talk of appearing in person. There must be some legal protection for Chief Executives of Government and other important functionaries otherwise they can be kept in Court by anyone for any length of time, what this will do for governance needs no elucidation.
The PM had three options, viz (1) to apologize before the Court unconditionally (2) go half way i.e. without expressly admitting any guilt express regrets for any remarks which may have upset the judiciary or (3) fight out the case on merit. Given the circumstances and the composition of the Court (and mood thereof), he risked being sentenced on any one of the options and thus being put on course for disqualification as PM. With such an eventuality a foregone conclusion, there were many suggestions from different quarters, ranging from one extreme to the other. One must refer to Fuller as far back as 1732, to quote “natural folly is bad enough but learned folly is intolerable”. Suffice to say, many ambitious souls are looking forward to Mian Sahib coming to grief, this is an excellent opportunity to differentiate friend from foe.
Economic Upturn?
If the boom on the Stock Market and the IMF delegation that was in Pakistan this week are to be believed we are back on the road to economic resurgence, a dramatic reflection of the present government’s economic restructuring drive. Conservative financial analysts do not pay much attention to the price of shares in Pakistan as a good enough economic indicator and the IMF stopped believing the Benazir regime’s fudged statistics since they made it into a state of art, in the presence of stock manipulators and gamblers who have a history of resorting to subterfuges for profit-taking, they prefer to look at the numbers that make up the fiscal deficit, such as the revenues available to meet the current expenditures and the sense of purpose behind structural reforms. However even the most hard-bitten observer will concede that there is momentum which must have origin in conceptually sustainable policies, this has been confirmed by the IMF team which has lauded “the concrete policies of the present backed by political determination”. As we go into the final stretch leading to the celebration of the 50th year since Independence, there is a remarkable parallel in July 1947 to July 1997, on a pro-rata basis that is. Our economic forefathers were then faced with imminent bankruptcy for the fledgling nation, being deprived of their allocated share of funds by British “fairplay”, they had too little in the kitty and too much to pay for. The vast difference in 1997 is that in 1947 in contrast to almost nothing in the areas designated for Pakistan, India had a wide range of medium to heavy industries with a sophisticated infrastructure in support. Pakistan virtually caught up in the 60s till the Bhutto hiccups “one” and “two”, father and daughter’s horrendous economic shortcomings paling before the voracious Zardari appetite for unadulterated greed almost put paid to us economically. In the early 60s, we were a model for more than a decade.
Read His Lips, No New Taxes!
The best from the finest must come at a critical point at the worst of times. The very believable economic survey that preceded the Federal Budget was scary, the sustained economic crisis it portrays in 1976-1977 equals if not surpasses the political crisis that broke the country in two in 1971, coincidentally almost 25 years apart and coming during the Golden Jubilee Year when we should be celebrating development and progress since independence. 1971 was the year our leadership across the broad spectrum failed us at a critical moment of truth, for all purposes till Friday June 13, the year 1997 was economically going down the same tube despite some glimmer of hope with the advent of the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime. With the chips really down, this government has risen to the challenge. By enunciating a pragmatic supply-sided no-new-tax budget, Mian Nawaz Sharif’s regime has confounded critics and believers in status quo. The acid test of leadership is to choose your managers with care, the right person for the right job, as well as the courage and ability to take calculated risks. In putting confidence in Senator Sartaj Aziz and going with the overturning of traditional logic in budget-making, Mian Nawaz Sharif has come up trumps.
The gameplan inherent in the Budget proposals is simple, decrease taxes per capita and thus encourage increasing of volume on the whole. The idea was to give relief on both ends of the spectrum, to the common man as well to business and industry. By reducing the burden on industry, manufacturing costs would become lower, within reach of the additional funds available for spending by consumers. As the Leader of the Opposition grudgingly conceded, it is an incentive-oriented, relatively tax-free budget, but as she peevishly did not concede, it is a brave, innovative and challenging set of budgetary proposals to meet a very bleak economic picture. The business community that was anticipating belt-tightening, is virtually speechless, as one newspaper put it, agog. The Opposition, armed to the teeth with statements about the anticipated increase in taxes, has been set adrift spluttering with frustration. To put it bluntly, they have no case to propound.
Reza Shah, Marcos and Mobutu
Reza Shah, former Shah of Iran in 1979, Ferdinand Marcos, former President of Philippines in 1986 and now Mobutu, former President of Congo (formerly Zaire) in 1997, have much in common. All three are crooks who, having looted the Third World countries they professed to love but ruled as absolute despots without allowing any hint of democracy, went off to seek safer sanctuaries before the people could get their hands on them as they did with the husband-wife combination of the Ceaucescus of Romania. At today’s rate, adjusted for inflation, all three were US ten billion dollar men. More important, at the fag end of their sordid lives, despite all the wealth they accumulated, country after country refused them a bare six feet of earth as a final place of rest. In an ultimate insult to their beings, the countries that were most supportive of them during their years of absolute rule and where they had stashed their looted wealth, refused to allow them entry to enjoy the ill-gotten gains. The ex-Shah of Iran was eventually buried in Egypt (at a price), Ferdinand Marcos’ body remained in an air-conditioned crypt till very recently and stricken with cancer, Mobutu is still searching for a safe haven. For Reza Shah, the exploitation of his wealth two decades ago was relatively easy, not that easy for Marcos about a decade ago and almost impossible for Mobutu presently. At the request of the new Government of the Republic of Congo, countries like Switzerland, France, etc that had his wealth stashed away, conservatively estimated at US$ 10 billion, have frozen all his assets, bank accounts and real-estate, etc included.
While one can have the satisfaction that all three crooks met their comeuppance in not getting to enjoy their ill-gotten wealth, the fact remains that the poverty-stricken population of their respective countries got no real solace. Iran recovered only a fraction of late Reza Shah’s wealth in foreign countries. While Philippines was luckier inasfar as the process they adopted to recover the loot was on a systematic and legal basis, even they managed to get a portion only of the Marcos wealth. However the Filipinos set in motion a process that has changed the world environment inasfar as looted wealth is concerned, it has become that much harder to stash away and have access to looted wealth once not in power. This environment has been made much better by the end of the cold war as the west’s reliance on tinpot dictators has ceased. In Mobutu’s case, despite the recent civil war that preceded his downfall and the precarious ascent of the Kabila regime, Congolese Justice Minister Lawangi moved fast to approach countries like Switzerland, France, etc. where Mobutu’s wealth is mostly located, US$ 5 billion in Swiss Bank accounts alone, and had a quick response to the official request by the newly installed government. Like Reza Shah and Marcos before him, Mobutu is now engaged in an odyssey for a place to die peacefully in, finding it much more harder than Reza Shah and Marcos to find a place in the fading sun, finding it that much harder to gain access to (and thus exploit) his fabulous wealth. Oil-rich Iran, resource-rich Philippines and mineral-rich Congo, all have the capacity to recover from the excesses of their erstwhile leaders, most Third World countries do not have that luxury. Population-rich, economically almost-bankrupt Pakistan neither has any room to manoeuvre or the time to afford such an exercise. Fully US$ 30 billion is estimated to be in the foreign accounts of our politicians, bureaucrats, businessmen, former armed forces and police officers, etc. That is more than the estimated US$ 28 billion national external debt. Recovery of even a quarter of that amount, about US$ 7 billion, would tide us over our debt crisis for three crucial years i.e. US $ 2.33 or Pak Rs 100 billion per year. That is about the amount of the deficit in the Federal Budget. Today the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime has made the right noises about recovering the ill-gotten wealth, yet their moves have been confined to lip-service and have been half-hearted enough to be suspect as to their sincerity. It will need much more commitment on their part and an objectivity in targeting known political criminals, not just those who are in the Opposition (or are not with the government, which according to Chanakhya’s rules” about relationships means the same thing). A definite process of law is required, the rhetoric is meaningless as rhetoric alone cannot fill the empty coffers of the country.
Analysing Defeat, Absorbing Victory
Field Marshal William Slim commanded the 1st Burma Corps during the retreat up the Irrawady River following the Japanese invasion of Burma in World War II. Later he went on to command the British 14th Army which inflicted a series of defeats on the Japanese, forcing them down the Irrawady River to Rangoon. Turning “Defeat into Victory” (incidentally the name of his autobiography), Slim was a very lonely man. Sitting outside his tent contemplating his next move during the drive back into Burma, he overheard two of his sentries talking. When one of them wondered aloud where the next battle would take place, the other very confidently named a location. On being asked as to how he knew, the second sentry told the first, “the old man is definitely going to choose to fight in all the places on the way in that he got badly beaten on the way out”, or words to that effect. So much for strategy!
Back to the Future, with Hope
Four years ago, despite the devastating floods of late 1992, 1993 had started with the hopes of a vast majority of the nation firmly rooted in the promise of economic Valhalla promised by then PM Mian Nawaz Sharif. The death of the COAS Gen Asif Nawaz in the first week of January set loose latent fears and ambitions putting into motion events that saw the exit, return and re-exit of Mian Nawaz Sharif as PM in the space of three months beginning April and ending in July 1993. The year’s end saw the contrived return of Ms. Benazir, the ensuing Zardari dominated nightmare running a full course till her exit as PM less than 60 days ago. In less than a month, the people of Pakistan are to go to the polls and while election fervour is muted because of the constant public refrain for accountability, the masses are gingerly hoping to pick up the threads of the economic aspirations lost four years ago. A crude and early rough poll shows the people’s mandate presently running clearly in Mian Nawaz Sharif’s favour. Having lost considerable ground economically as a nation since 1993, anyone who becomes Pakistan’s PM must first make the nation financially stable before energizing the various economic sectors to the same level as was obtaining then.
Head-Hunting and the President
Acting on the advice of the Federal Government, President Farooq Khan Leghari suspended the Punjab Government for a period of two months, asking the Governor to assume all powers. A day earlier, all the PPP ministers in CM Manzoor Wattoo’s Provincial Cabinet had resigned as an orchestrated move to create “suitable” conditions to justify Presidential action. While no tears can be shed (without resorting to hypocrisy) for the Wattoo Coalition which was unnatural in the first place and overdue for demise, democracy could have been better served by asking Wattoo to take a “vote of confidence” route or better still, to have moved a vote of no-confidence against him while he was in power. Twice now, the President has used his powers to intercede and interfere in the principle of provincial autonomy by causing the demise of the NWFP and Punjab Governments to facilitate the entry of a PPP-led Coalition Government. Technically within Constitutional parameters, as far as the norms of democracy he is constitutionally pledged to uphold the President stands on rather shaky moral grounds. Another round of manipulation and horse-trading by both major political groupings was set in motion, this shameless exercise denigrates the entire democratic system. While his partiality and judgement can be called into question, the President is a decent human being and he should have adopted a more neutral stance so as not to call his partiality and judgement into question. The President must not forget he was a victim of “Mehrangate”, the scam perpetrated by Mehran Bank’s unscrupulous Younus Habib (remember him?) and others to maliciously defame his character. Haji Nawaz Khokhar, the then PML (N) MNA, was most vociferous in demanding an “egg and tomato” assault on the President in the NA during his address. It was only when he jumped ship and went across to the PPP that it became clear his this “more loyal than the king” cheerleading, ostensibly on behalf of Mian Nawaz Sharif, was part of a master scam devised to dupe (and ensure) that the Opposition remained in confrontation with the President lest his known upright nature lead him to “positive neutrality” as per his Constitutional role. Who was behind this conspiracy? Before those of us led astray by the scam could render an apology of sorts, we were rudely awakened to reality by the Punjab Blitzkrieg led by the Governor, Lt Gen (Retd) Raja (Von) Saroop. Those of us who had seen (and maybe fantasised) about the President becoming independent for the good of Pakistan, have to live with the fact that the widely awaited transition of Leghari from PPP stalwart to being the President of all the peoples of Pakistan has suffered a setback.
Missed Opportunities
It is May 26, 1993. The Supreme Court has just restored Mian Nawaz Sharif as PM of Pakistan. On the hill a lonely (and suddenly beleaguered) President waits with apprehension about his former protege’s next move. Ms. Benazir Bhutto similarly waits anxiously with her worry beads. If Mian Nawaz Sharif should choose to go to the President and make up as any politician in his place would have done in similar circumstances, showing magnanimity in victory, the game is over for her for some time. On the outside chance that the PM expands on his confrontation, there is hope yet. Riding the crest of success, Mian Sahib chooses the path of confrontation and thus takes the “laurels from his (own) brow and casts them into the dust”, to quote Churchill about Wavell after his defeat at the hands of Rommel in the desert. Next, having formed the Government after the 1993 elections and thus displaying its coalition majority, the PPP shows signs of political accommodation over the election of a compromise President, maybe even someone like Senator Sartaj Aziz from the PML(N). Again Mian Sahib’s hawks prevail, the PML(N) stands firm about a PML(N) President of their choice, seesawing between Gohar Ayub and Wasim Sajjad. Net result, PPP goes for its own candidate and we see the non-controversial and generally liked PPP stalwart Farooq Khan Leghari elected as President. Third flashback, President Leghari immediately resigns from the PPP in an effort to display genuine neutrality in his new role as President and journeys to Lahore, inviting Mian Sahib to tea in the Punjab Governor’s House and if not, requests to go over himself to Mian Sahib’s house in Model Town to call on the Leader of the Opposition, in fact leaning over backwards beyond the limits of protocol. Peevishness persists and discourtesy aside, the meeting has not yet materialised, two years later. In Mian Sahib’s political history, the field is strewn with missed opportunities, so many and so crucial that it would require much more than one single article to recount them. Teflon-like hide aside, one cannot keep on passing the buck to his Advisors.
Given the present Karachi situation and the grave danger that it poses to the existence of the country, the Leader of the Opposition has taken the initiative and called a Conference of all parties on Karachi. Given the foot-dragging of the PPP regime as far as negotiations with MQM are concerned, this is indeed a most welcome proposal to draw the MQM(A) back into the national mainstream. One should take the analogy of the ultimate symbol of terrorism, the air hijacker. Does one stop talking to the hijacker or does one immediately start talking to him in order to gain time and wear down his demands? While labelling MQM as terrorists may be a moot point in a city full of terrorist groups of various ilk and creed, the PPP should certainly not stop talking with the majority party in Sindh’s urban areas. To circumvent PPP’s obduracy on this issue, Mian Sahib took a political lead of great significance by calling this Conference and then proceeded to shoot himself in the foot by refusing to invite PPP.
Direct Vote and Democracy
The basis of democracy is that every individual has occasion to exercise his or her vote freely to choose individuals for a particular seat or post. This vote is not transferable and cannot be exercised by proxy. Given the basic concept of adult franchise, any indirect vote is bound to be controversial, particularly since it transfers the basic individual right of choice of electors of one constituency to another individual who then takes a solitary decision on behalf of others which may not be really representative. In third world countries where individuals are invariably more susceptible to the influences of power, money etc than in western countries, there is always the possibility that for various considerations the indirect vote may be cast against the actual aspirations of the basic unit of a democracy, the individual citizen. Therefore, it inculcates an element of corruption at its very inception. Moreover, it circumvents the process of a candidate’s accountability before the masses that is one of the basic premises of democracy.
The Federal structure in Pakistan is composed of the directly elected National Assembly and an indirectly elected Upper House called the Senate. Albeit peopled by some very fine men and women for the most part, the indirect elections to the Senate (each Province has equal number of seats with a number reserved for technocrats, etc) offers an opportunity for chicanery inasmuch as the Electoral College is composed of the members of the respective Provincial Assemblies (with Punjab having the maximum of 240 electors for 20 Senate seats i.e 12 electors can vote into office a Senator while at the other end of the scale Balochistan’s 45 electors vote also for 20 Senate seats, i.e. only 2 votes to get a Senator elected). While the Senate is supposedly a higher body than the National Assembly (NA), this lop-sided indirect elections to fill its seats contradicts its higher status, undercutting the basic principle of exercise of adult franchise to fill all electable slots in a democracy. It gives an inordinate advantage to those with money and/or influence to become members of the Upper House. Conceivably those who have made their money illegally and do not want to go through the exhaustive “accountability before the masses” process of a full fledged election campaign, can avoid the elections to the Provincial (PA) or National Assemblies (NA) and “purchase” the small number of necessary voters to get elected to the Senate by either giving “donations” to individual legislators or to the political party whose support they want. One should not forget that this concept of indirect vote was firmly rejected by the Pakistani populace in the form of Field Marshal Ayub Khan’s 80,000 Basic Democrats who formed an Electoral College to elect (Provincial and National) legislators, etc as well as the President. The Opposition to this concept stemmed from the fact that the masses were effectively disenfranchised by the indirect method and that the smaller number of elections could be influenced to cast their vote in particular manner by various means, some of them coercive in nature. The same principle must apply to the Senate, being a higher body than the National Assembly, it’s claim to legality can only be borne out if its members are directly elected by the populace. To give continuity to the democratic process, direct elections to the Senate, where members’ terms should only be of four years, can be held during the mid-term stage of the NA (and PA) elections (whose terms must also be shortened from five to four years as per Ms Benazir’s pre-election promise).
Why Do Systems Fail?
A star-spangled group of concerned citizens of various ilk have recently launched a campaign for peace and harmony in the country, particularly in Karachi, by putting their weight behind a mass appeal in the form of a major rally organised by the Mir Khalilur Rahman Society in Karachi and a separate campaign in the media. Opposition parliamentarians led by Mian Nawaz Sharif simultaneously organised an All Parties Conference (APC) in the city. On the surface terrorism’s immediate reaction to this was gunning down of one of the participants, the outspoken Editor of Takbeer, Muhammad Salahuddin. While the actual perpetrator of this ghastly assassination remains a matter of conjecture as late Salahuddin had many enemies (including those whom he had exposed as being corrupt), this vicious repudiation of the combined voice of reason underscores a deep apprehension of impending doom, a refrain heard alike in the drawing rooms of the elite and the tea-stalls of the impoverished, hovering like an ominous dark cloud over the minds of our citizenry. It is almost as if we are willing ourselves into becoming prisoners of our worst nightmares. This deterioration of the national fabric into anarchy, very much visible all around us in every institution of any note, can be solely and wholly blamed on the various permutations and combinations of small coterie in Pakistan that has always wielded power, whether in or out of authority. It is not surprising that these people conveniently remain blind and deaf to what’s happening to this country but do not fail to spout rhetoric far divorced from reality as to the reasons. The elected and the selected, with sometimes little difference between the two, have generally put greed and career respectively (or both together) before their conscience i.e. they have operated on the basis of their selfish personal needs by putting their own welfare and contentment before the safety and comfort of the citizens they represent and/or are responsible for, seldom giving greater priority to the honour and glory of the country they profess to be loyal to.
In this degeneration process, the first factors that we give lip-service to are merit and accountability. Merit is suspect because nepotism has so undermined the process of upward mobility that anyone showing signs of above par excellence is considered dangerous and dealt with accordingly. Those who have reached the upper levels with little to show for ability ensure a vicious cycle where no “upstart” with any merit comes through the pecking order. In Pakistan, as in third world countries, character assassination by the help of motivated intelligence reports is the order of the day, bloody assassination a la Salahuddin takes place only where everything else fails. An endless blackmail is conducted by twisting facts and mixing it with fiction in order to wear down the patience of the victim till he (or she) simply gives up out of sheer frustration. How many voices have we seen silenced, how many brilliant careers have we seen going down the drain in this manner? From time to time fate intervenes to correct this imbalance but the broad momentum of nepotism is maintained to the detriment of those crucial leadership attributes which are a necessity at every level of society and discipline. When merit thus becoming a negative attribute for survival and advancement, how does one expect accountability which in any case is mostly selective because it is directed towards the “enemies” of the powers – that – be (i.e. whoever is in power at that precise moment)? Selective accountability focus undercuts its credibility, the basis of fact being eroded by its motivated interest in persecution for the sake of persecution, sometimes even as a revenge motive, rather than purely altruistic intentions to uphold the laws of the land. There is a conspiracy of silence that makes for a sort of a “Thieves Pact” not to really put each other into any inquisition until one crosses a particular fail-safe line. To be effective, the concept of accountability has to be blind, compromises makes the process ineffective. One of the reasons why we are in a holy mess is because we have systematically destroyed the integrity of the accountability process.