Passage to Nowhere
Sowing the Wind
The sound of a bullet is a great equalizer, the sharp snap as it goes past is the moment of truth which separates the men from the boys. The silence of waiting had been deafening, the sound of war started with a sharp clap, this will soon build into a crescendo. As soon as the US ultimatum expired an opportunity presented itself for the targeted assassination of members of the Iraqi regime, Saddam Hussain among them, militarily speaking the actual war will go into full swing as soon as the sandstorms stop! Having delivered an ultimatum, for the US to back down would have been to lose credibility as a military superpower. One silver lining should assuage the feelings of the Muslim World, shepherd to a flock of 1.5 billion Christians, the Pope condemned the war in the strongest possible language. The French, Germans, Russians and Chinese (and millions more in the streets of the western world) had already bankrupted Samuel Huntington’s theory about “Clash among Civilizations”, Our religious leaders must applaud the fact that there are no unipolar Christian and Jewish forces ganging up against Islam as was being widely apprehended in the Islamic world. Morally right or wrong will be on display once the war starts because the Iraqis will certainly use the “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) if they have them. One thing Bush got right, Saddam Hussain is an obnoxious tyrant whose time has come. It is no use repeating all the atrocities he has visited on humanity, his monstrosity is very well documented. Shed no tears for this despicable person, his associates or his immediate family, they are fully culpable for their share of disseminating cruelty and torture on the Iraqi people. The first “opportunity” attacks were right in being Saddam-specific, instead of bombing Baghdad (and Iraqis) indiscriminately, this is the way to go!
Likely War Scenario
If the US-led Coalition fails to scare Saddam out of Iraq by the sheer build up of forces on his doorstep, bluff will become a reality! Before the moonless period sets in on March 2, a barrage of about 3000 cruise missiles launched in a space of 48 hours by ships and aircraft will hit Iraqi command and control centres, radars and communications sites, suspected chemical and biological warfare production centres, Scud missile sites, Republican Guard concentrations, Baath Socialist Party HQs, etc.
Return to Davos
In a profound gesture of solidarity for the horrific terrorist atrocity of 9/11, the 2002 World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting, was held in New York. While the WALDORF was hospitable, the DAVOS nostalgia could only come back with the return of the 2003 WEF Annual Meeting to its usual “Congress Center” haunt. 2002 saw apprehensions (inspite of globalization) between communities and nations develop into suspicion. Appropriately the Theme this year was “Building Trust”. In setting the parameters for the Summit, Managing Director WEF (former President of Costa Rica) Jose Maria Figueres and Thierry Malleret, Director WEF put restoring confidence in the future as the most important leadership challenge today. Corporate leadership had to cope with the hangover from the boom years, involving managing of overcapacity, benefitting from industry consolidation and adapting to the new corporate governance standards, all this while navigating through a difficult economic and political climate.
Crime, War and Punishment
Even without a damning report of the UN inspectors, the US is seemingly poised to go to war to oust the Saddam regime from Iraq. The Brits are the only country firmly in support, quite a few allies are wavering publicly about their commitment. While a “smoking gun” in the form of direct evidence is still not forthcoming, the secondary reasons include the anticipated destabilization of the entire Middle East because of the backlash among the muslim populace. Purists also argue about a legal basis to initiate war. In DAVOS on Sunday Jan 26, US Secretary of State calmed the fears of the world’s elite while giving a logical explanation of present US troop deployment in the region. However, he said that if need be the US was prepared to go alone.
South Asia on Edge
If exit polls in Gujerat are to be believed, BJP will win nearly a hundred seats in the Assembly compared to the 70 for the Congress Party. This is bad news not only for India but for the rest of South Asia because the BJP victory is based on blatant exploitation of Hindu chauvinism, anathema to the concept of secular India. Having lost almost all State elections since coming to power, the electoral success will not only be sweet for BJP, it will unfortunately serve as their model for future electoral campaigns. To the credit of the Congress Party they stuck to their secular stance despite pre-polls suggesting that the BJP-inspired carnage of muslims in Gujerat was in line with what voters in the State wanted. Narendra Modi, who can easily be tried in the Hague for genocide in inspiring and inciting violence against the minority muslims while being the primary authority in the State as Chief Minister, was shamelessly paraded by BJP through the electoral hustings proclaiming his “Hindutva” credentials. BJP’s victory in Gujerat is not only a disaster for India, the two muslim countries in South Asia will begin to feel the heat as BJP articulates its immediate “east” and “west” foreign policy to go with its virulent domestic anti-muslim stance.
The Perils of Democracy
After three years of life in the cold, the heat generated by politicians in the National Assembly was to be expected, this surpassed our apprehensions. Even with the compulsion of a graduation degree, unadulterated democracy does not seem suited to most countries of the third world. Every individual is entitled to express one’s views without inhibition, that being the essence of democracy, the loudest advocates thereof tend to drown out others from using the same prerogative. The term “parliamentary language” is certainly not synonymous with what is mostly used in the August House. While unbridled rhetoric remains the hallmark of our freedom of expression, one can only hope that time will bring discretion into the tone and tenor of the elected representatives, who by their present conduct and demeanor seem to represent anything but the aspirations of anybody but the people of their electorate.
The Fog of Democracy
Meeting less than a fortnight after the completion of the electoral process on Nov 2, the members of the National Assembly (NA), duly sworn in by the outgoing Speaker, Elahi Bakhsh Soomro, will vote to elect the NA Speaker and the Deputy Speaker. These elections will provide the outlines of the democratic government that will emerge from the “fog of democracy” prevailing since Oct 11 in the country. While the military government of three years will cease to exist, the new government will consist mainly of those whom the military regime removed on Oct 12, 1999 but who nevertheless during the election campaign publicly supported the rather benevolent three-year militarily rule. The PML (Q)-led Grand National Alliance (GNA) commands enough of a democratic bloc (sans the two other major parties, PPP-P and MMA) to ensure that the man who emerged as the nation’s leader by default as a result of Mian Nawaz Sharif’s mid-autumn madness, General Pervez Musharraf, will continue as President. Before administering the oath of office to the PM-elect, most probably Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, the President will be administered oath of office by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan. With the swearing-in of the PM, the much-maligned 1973 Constitution of Pakistan, duly abridged, will stand restored.
Two Countries, One Nation
For over 30 years now we have been carrying the burden of the horrific experience of the break-up of the country, in one symbolic measure the President set the ghosts of 1971 to rest. A simple apology meant a lot to the Bangladeshi psyche, the President being a uniformed person the effect was force-multiplied many times. The official Bangladeshi reaction was swift and concise, 1971 is now behind us, it was time to move ahead and strengthen relations to the benefit of both countries. Both for Pakistan and Bangladesh it was important to get over 1971.
A Lopsided Loya Jirga
The fundamental premise of any agreement is that it should be fair and equitable to all those who may be affected by it. Six months into the induction of the Afghan Interim Government (AIG), a traditional caucus, the LOYA JIRGA (Great National Assembly of Notables) is supposed to assemble to choose the representatives of the Afghan people. Hungry for peace, the Afghans accepted an overwhelmingly Tajik (and Panjsheeri Tajik at that) dominated AIG, putting their faith in Loya Jirga Commission that was mandated to complete the process of choosing the representatives according to a complex formula, but one which was mainly rooted in the democratic concept of apportioning delegates on the basis of percentage of population, provided, of course, that they had individual reputation for integrity and acceptability to those whom they sought to represent. Even a cursory look at the procedural document issued by the Loya Jirga Commission showed that the Northern (Tajik) and Western (Uzbek) Districts have been allotted a much higher number of delegates. The Panjsheeri Tajiks who actually wield power in the AIG (having the all-important Ministries of Defence, Interior and Foreign Affairs) manipulated an artificial majority for Tajiks in the number of delegates while denying the same to the majority Pashtuns. While Pashtun Hamid Karzai has kept the disparate but heavily Tajik-weighted coalition together, the seeds of discontent may reverse all the gains made in removing the Taliban from power. The Eastern and Southern Regions are Pashtun and densely populated, they should have been given greater representation.
Shame and Resolve
If the fact of Daniel Pearl’s kidnapping was senseless, the act of his murder was inhuman. While we Pakistanis may never be able to live with the shame of Daniel Pearl’s brutal killing, being battle-inoculated by two decades of terrorism we will eventually come to terms with this ghastly atrocity. Skeptical about Pakistan as a viable entity when he (and his wife Marianne) first flew in on Sept 16, 2001 from Mumbai where he was based as “The Wall Street Journal” (WSJ)’s Bureau Chief, he would comment quite frequently about how wrong he had been about Pakistan, how one could never discover the real truth without personally visiting the area and inter-acting with the people. Tragically a vicious minority proved Pakistan otherwise. Refined and sensitive, Daniel had been filing material in WSJ favourable to Pakistan, his confidence in moving about freely without any personal security reflected how much he was at ease in Pakistan and with Pakistanis, unfortunately that trusting approach was his undoing. Danny was inquisitive but unlike many of his professions he was not cynical, or for that matter naive, he was simply far more ready to believe. That he was a Jew and his grandparents lived in Israel made him no less a good human being and a friend. Jews are people of the Book and our only difference with Israel should be the status of Al-Aqsa, the mutual terrorism unleashed against each other by the Israelis and Palestinians is a matter to be settled between them. Can anyone refer me to when Yasser Arafat last mentioned Kashmir favourably with Pakistan? Danny’s frank, candid comments showed an absolute lack of prejudice that was not only refreshing, it made Daniel Pearl much more, a friend to cherish, both in life and in death.