The Road Ahead
As we approach election year 2007 (or will it be early 2008), the Musharraf regime has to decide very soon what political garb it has to cast itself in to fight the elections successfully. While there is no meltdown of the government, if what we read in the media and hear at private gatherings from neutral observers is true than in the run-up to general elections we are headed for political in-fighting within the government coalition, with every partner holding out to get the best possible deal for themselves. That is to be expected, with each constituent utilising this opportunity for crying for more seats than its share, before deciding upon the consensus candidate for each National and Provincial Assembly seat, mostly at the last minute. PML (Q) is a heterogeneous outfit that will be beset from within to an extent, particularly in the Seraiki belt, it will still be the majority party in Punjab, based namely on the strength of individual candidates rather than party affiliation. However both PPP and PML(N) will also do well in their strongholds. In Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan. PML(Q) is almost non-existent without official manipulation We are in for an era of backroom politics, may not be exactly smoke-filled and whisky–laden but there will be a potent power-play nevertheless.
The “Polish Incident”
The outrage perpetrated at the Supreme Court (SC) on Friday Nov 28, 1997 was an incident waiting to happen. For the past several weeks, tension had been mounting in the country as the government and the Supreme Court made moves and counter-moves. When the PM made an unprecedented appearance in person before the Chief Justice (CJ) in the Contempt of Court case and expressed his regrets, the normal course of events would have found a solution in his “honourable pardon”. With the framing of the charge-sheet, the only defence left to the PM for survival was the authority of the Parliament. This was readily given the form of an Amendment which gave the right of at least one appeal, assent to which was very deliberately delayed by the President. Agreed that the Amendment was flawed in some respects, if there was good faith in the Presidency the relevant clauses could have been immediately indicated for Parliament to correct and re-send to the Presidency. In the normal course a 30-day period is OK, but when the constitutional tensions were this high, was it responsible of him to do the abstinence act and sit over the issue? In fact, President Leghari has now come out, holier-than-thou, and made a vehement attack on the government in the form of a very intemperate letter to the PM. What the nation suspected for 30 days, and a lot of people knew much before that, has now been confirmed as a fact, the President has not only been a part of the conspiracy to destabilise the Nawaz Sharif Government, he has been the main perpetrator of the crisis that has brought the country to its knees. Without this behind-the-scenes manipulations, it is most unlikely that matters would have reached the stage it did, culminating in the outrage at the SC premises on Nov 28, 1997. In the “Polish incident” some innocent Germans were deliberately killed by Germans in the last week of August 1939 to make it look like the work of Polish Border Guards. This “incident” was then used by the Germany to invade Poland “to protect Germans”, thus started World War II as France and UK declared war as they had promised to do if Germany invaded Poland. Counting on the bully-boy tactics of the militant faction of the PML to rear its ugly head sooner than later, the President waited till the very condemnable and shameful fascist-type raid on the SC Building before shedding crocodile tears about “the dismal failure of your (sic Nawaz’s) administration than that provided by the shameful events of the last two days, “unquote. While the PML must certainly answer for this fascist-type incident, the President cannot be absolved of his responsibility. This was an outrage carefully choreographed, as much as a mouse is lured by cheese as bait into a trap, to show PML up to be monsters, to provide the “casus belli” for the demise of Mian Nawaz Sharif’s government. While deliberating (or dawdling) over a host of PML’s advice and Parliamentary missives for three weeks, the President came out of his hole in the Presidency like a shot once the CJ sent him his letter requesting for security from the Army and for Justice Siddiqui’s head.