A Very Good Budget
Every Federal Budget is usually better than the previous year, this year even more so. Presented by the Federal Minister of State for Finance Omar Ayub on June 9, 2007, it had a three-fold purpose viz (1) to try and alleviate the poverty of the common man (2) provide incentives for greater investment, and lastly (3) provide a favourable environment for general elections at the end of this year. Glaring anomalies exist, bigger incentives should have been given for the agriculture sector, the mainstay of Pakistan’s economy.
Keeping it Simple
The history of Pakistan is replete with Commissions, Task Forces and Advisory Groups, very few have made any effective recommendations, only a fraction of these have ever been implemented. The intent of the military regime is sincere, they are being frustrated (as in the past) by the time-honoured bureaucratic method of filibustering. Such people never have the country’s best interest at heart, only their own and they know that if they can delay the process the honeymoon will soon be over. At best five miles to midnight as a country, we need pragmatic and simple solutions, not experiments that will exacerbate the situation.
The National Reconstruction Bureau’s (NRB) concept of devolution of power, giving total administrative control to District Governments is magnificent in theory, in practice it would be such an unmitigated disaster that in comparison the Yugoslavia experience of disintegration would be a kindergarten primer. Most of Pakistan’s problems of bad governance and mal-administration can be laid at the door of over-centralisation. The Provinces have autonomy in name only, the Provinces are all run by the Federal Government. The right ideas notwithstanding, NRB has not war-gamed the consequences. Certainly there is a case for devolution, people should not have to run from far pillar to far post in seeking good governance. On the other hand, ethnic and sectarian problems have polarised present society, this divisiveness needs to be overcome. We should not play into the hands of separatists. Why not broaden the base for better management and control while giving genuine autonomy? From four Provinces we can make fourteen on the lines recommended in THE NATION on Nov 27, 1999, “Making the Federation effective,” with Karachi Port and Airport, Cantonments and ancillary areas, Port Qasim, etc as Federally-Administered areas. District governments under management of smaller provinces is a far better proposition. Law and order must remain a Provincial subject, the maximum decentralisation downwards should be to a metropolitan city government. Giving law enforcement agencies under the control of a District Government is asking for trouble, a mob-type control negating the concept of democracy will exist in every district. It can and should be done but after a number of years, when the institutions have time to mature and become stable.
Sindh Situation
To revive the Sindh economy, pragmatic and bold initiatives must commence with Karachi which is not only the prime city of Sindh but that of Pakistan, being its only port. Karachi remained economically buoyant during the 70s because of a construction boom fuelled primarily by expatriate funds from the Middle East. While the money for housing is still there, the lack of water and power have rendered housing starts to virtually nothing. Consequently, a large percentage of the traditional labour force is unemployed, the residual effects spiralling upwards and cutting into white collar jobs. The net result has been an economic downturn of enormous proportion that has degenerated into (1) ethnic strife as the population has increased but the economic cake has become smaller (2) deterioration of law and order as the jobless have turned to crime and (3) consequently residual political factors breeding a general state of anarchy. This has been further accentuated by the machinations of RAW, (the terror arm of India), drugs and arms proliferation, activities of armed militants of various political parties, dacoits from the interior seeking kidnap victims from richer urban areas rather than their traditional rural hunting grounds, etc. To complicate the economic scene, entire industries have shifted northwards to safer havens, deepening the unemployment crisis.