Glimmer or Mirage?
While the pall of dark economic gloom continues to hover over us, some short-term indicators have started to twinkle. We continue to face a horrendous economic situation, deepened by a chronic shortfall in revenues. The magic revised figure of Rs 305 billion is still almost Rs 100 billion away in the last quarter, there is the glimmer of hope that the worst may have bottomed out and we may finally be on the road to the elusive economic recovery.
For the common man there is no issue more sensitive than food, followed by water and electricity. Last year, due to faulty projections the last elected regime defaulted on adequate imports of wheat stocks on time, with the Caretaker regime maintaining the status quo of inertia, there were “atta” riots as wheat stocks plummeted. Some PML stalwarts in Sindh took advantage of the situation to turn “atta” into gold. Wheat in tons went across the border, primarily into Afghanistan but also into other adjacent regions. This time around, the government was taking no chances and fully 4 million tons of wheat has been imported to add to the surplus stock held because of last year’s excessive import. Add to this a bumper crop this year and we are fairly wallowing in wheat. This bumper crop has been due to policy initiatives in agriculture, where the agri-credit was raised from Rs 12.5 billion to Rs 30 billion, allowing farmers a 1:2 ratio of DAP to area instead of 1:4 ratio they previously used. With support price raised, this has resulted in 12-13% increased production with 4% increased average, a 2 million ton increase. To this add the success of the Canola crop in reducing our edible oil imports by an additional US$ 300 million last year and almost US$ 150 million this year. With a world-wide slump in textiles, our domestic cotton off-take has been reduced and we have an importable surplus, enough at least to keep feeding our traditional markets. Even though our textile made-ups have gone down considerably, it has been somewhat made up by a sizable spurt in the manufacturing sector, up by almost 16%, almost 60% of it policy-related. The most significant manna has come from heaven as oil prices have crashed the world over, saving the foreign exchange earmarked for this purpose. If “el Nino” holds back in Sindh where the wheat harvest has already started and any rains would play havoc, things may well look up considerably.
Symbols for Accountability
Contrast the Chief Minister Punjab Mian Shahbaz Sharif, appearing before the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) to answer charges of corruption in the French Minehunters deal, to Ms Benazir Bhutto, required to answer questions raised by her role in the purchase of five secondhand helicopters by the Cabinet Division and refusing to do so. For someone who has a lot to answer for, she can be quite obdurate most of the time, all cooperation, honey and sugar when it suits her. With great fanfare she appeared on April Fools Day before the Nazir of the Sindh Ehtesab Bench case to take bail on a surety of Rs. 25,000, but she still refuses to appear before the PAC. Answering the PAC summons Mian Shahbaz Sharif confidently answered the queries of Maj Gen (Retd) Naseerullah Khan Babar, former Interior Minister in the PPP Cabinet, and convincingly proved to Gen Babar (and the PAC) with the help of his passport that the information given to Gen Babar based on which the General had levelled the allegations, that he had travelled to France to “influence” the French deal, were wrong. With Gen Babar not able to substantiate the charges, the evidence on record was found to be incorrect and the PAC held the allegations to be false, exonerating the Punjab CM. On this Gen Babar did the honourable thing and immediately retired from politics. Both the events are symbolic of the new season for accountability in Pakistan. Shahbaz Sharif deserves kudos for creating precedence, appearance before various forums is not only being avoided on different pretexts by Ms Bhutto but also by Mian Shahbaz’s Sindhi counterpart, Liaquat Ali Jatoi. Gen Babar did us proud by doing the honourable option available for the upright when proven publicly wrong, such things rarely happen in Pakistan, in Japan they would have committed hara-kiri. Not that senior government functionaries should start appearing in every court on every charge but when the inquisition is desired by one’s colleagues of the elected Assembly, the decorum and dignity of that institution demands the presence of those from whom propriety requires answers from, particularly pertaining to their honesty and integrity. Earlier to Mian Shahbaz Sharif’s appearance before the PAC, the PM’s appearance before the Supreme Court (SC) on a contempt of court charge in Nov 97 had symbolically conveyed to all and sundry that no matter how high the office and the mandate notwithstanding, the authority of the Supreme Court of Pakistan transcended any other authority in the matter of dispensation of justice. For politicians who subject themselves to the court of public opinion on a continuing basis, submitting to the authority of the judiciary in an environment that tends to normally manipulate justice, is an important and giant symbolic step for accountability. However politicians are not the only breed that start filibustering every time a court of law asks them to appear for some reason or the other, bureaucrats very seldom make an appearance and that only on very deep sufferance and with great resentment. Since the judiciary is still not separated from the executive, judges and magistrates below the level of the SC and the High Court remain in apprehension of the long arm of the bureaucracy.