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The Song, Not the Making
Entering the political arena for any soldier is like an infantryman trying to cross a minefield covered by massed artillery including a fair amount of air-bursts. Being a commando, Pervez Musharraf is certainly more infantarian than a gunner, moreover he is anything but “lean and mean”. Calling for a referendum seeking the peoples’ approval of his policies for the past 30 months and continuation as President thereof past Oct 2002, the President proceeded not to heed the advice of a small number of his real friends who were deadset against any Referendum, he went with the majority, i.e. the “yes-men”.
Informed legal eagles are both for and against the Referendum, making constitutionality a matter of legal opinion depending upon which side you represent, so that is not reason for apprehension. The electability of Pervez Musharraf is also not a source for worry, he is extremely popular among the masses and the polls predict a good percentage will vote for him to stay in power and continue his governing the country, or rather, his monitoring of good governance of the country. What is worrying is that while he has been very effective in ruling the country by single fiat without association with any politicians, in this new political environment, one he (and we) could have done without, he has to be vary of perceived friend and foe alike. It was scary looking at the politicians in the front row in Lahore on April 9, on a corruption-meter they exceeded all that NAB has hauled up till now.
Soldiering and Politicking
The October 2002 elections should see the Army, if not it’s Commander, back in the barracks, hardly surprising the rumour machines are working overtime and the “the natives (read “politicians”) are getting restless”. Having spent 30 months out in the cold, they have watched fitfully as the contorted manner of politics in Pakistan they were happy with has sought to be changed by the military regime in an attempt to convert democracy from the farce it was into a realistic exercise. To an extent the Local Bodies elections accomplishes that purpose but indirect elections for Nazims and Naib Nazims made that effort meaningless. Any post in the world, first world or the third, where the vote can be manipulated, does not truly represent the electorate it serves. Citing cost, the country’s present rulers have reverted to the practice of attempting “selections” instead of allowing those representative of elections. With all the apathy among the voters, the fact that even this military regime with all sincerity in their intentions, have not been able to bring about pragmatic and meaningful change, will further dissipate voter interest in the electoral process. Every elected post must be subject to universal adult franchise, or we will reap the consequences of another military coup post-Musharraf, and it will not so far be away in the future. We have been lucky with Pervez Musharraf, there could be a Sani Abacha down the line.
During the past year the President’s modus operandi has been routine. Before officially announcing a decision already made by him earlier but not announced, he first summons “the college of cardinals” ie. the Corps Commanders to plug any loopholes and then goes into a round of very public consultations with groups comprising political parties, intellectuals and academics, media personalities, etc, ostensibly to seek their advice and counsel, actually to lobby for and drum up support. To his credit he has modulated his decisions from time to time to reflect informed criticism, he has used the process quite successfully and effectively to build consensus, particularly since the period leading upto the Agra Summit in July. This time around since the consultative series initiated by the President is politician-heavy, he is finding the going difficult. The problem arises not only because of a whole set of detractors but also those who wish him well. They have built up a crescendo, both for and against a referendum on the President’s continuity post-elections. Aside from the fact that he will get bogged down in a legal minefield in attempting the referendum, the politicians who count have suddenly discovered a rallying point that gives them hope of revival of their dissipating fortunes. And the politicians who do not count are counting on the referendum to display to the President they are “more loyal than the king”, they will wait to gouge out their pound of flesh later. For the first time since Oct 12, 2002, Pervez Musharraf is on ground which is not of his choosing and one hopes that the political morass does not engulf him.
Back to the Friendship
Daniel Pearl’s kidnapping hitting the media headlines notwithstanding, there is surprisingly a lot of warmth in the US about Pakistan. This is a post-Sept 11 development. The quite unnecessary pronouncement by Richard Haas about Pakistan being on the way of being “a failed State” pre-Sept 11 was shocking, maybe it was meant to satisfy an Indian audience but coming from the Head of Policy Planning of the US State Department it was probably meant to shock. For the record there is as much association of Pakistan with terrorism as most other countries in the world, there being a fine line between freedom fighters and terrorists. Not the fallacy India has been desperately trying to project but one must accept that we have made our share of mistakes over the years, in this day and age it is no surprise they are coming home to roost. Wherever one went, people knew General Pervez Musharraf by name, he was spoken of with admiration. Everyone seemed to know that he was engaging in sweeping reforms at great personal risk. They held him out as an example of commitment to do the right thing. What they were surprised to hear was that the process of change had been initiated earlier, only the speed had increased manifold. More of a pleasant surprise was that Pakistanis of all ilk were united in the premise that Musharraf not only represented Pakistan’s best hope, he in fact was their last hope. Used to the edifying sight of a divided Pakistani community abroad, the contra elements were drowned out of contention and became a fringe element. The President’s visit came at a good time for Pakistan, for a change there was a receptive audience in USA for a Pakistani leader. Since the rest of the world does more or less at this time what the US wants, one expects a very positive fallout from his presence in the world’s capital.
First Blood
In Dec 13, 2001 six terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament in New Delhi, all except one who got away, were shot dead, but not before they started a chain of events that has brought Pakistan and India to the brink of war. Even before the live TV drama was over, the Indian Government had labelled the terrorists, who had no identification on them, as Pakistanis of Kashmiri origin belonging to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish Mohammad, two Kashmiri organizations engaged in guerilla warfare against the Indian occupation forces within Indian Held Kashmir. Coincidentally, within the Indian Parliament on that day, the Indian Government was under internal siege on two issues, viz (1) POTO, the Anti-Terrorist Bill that was being opposed tooth and nail not only by the Opposition but some of the BJP’s coalition partners, enough for the government to declare a parliamentary “whip” for its partners, coincidentally during the same week, and (2) the matter of “over-payment” for 3000 coffins ordered from USA by George Fernandes for the Indian Kargil dead during his previous tenure as Defence Minister from which he was forced out because of another scandal, the “Tehelka” scam.
Whether the attackers were Pakistanis, Kashmiris or even Indian convicts, they were conveniently dead and as such could not be identified immediately as per the Indian claim. Among the possibilities, in a desperate bid to divert the issues bedevilling their governance, India requested the Northern Alliance for Pakistani Taliban prisoners to be brought by air by Qanooni as a “gift” from Kabul to New Delhi, and then contrived to have them to “escape” and carry out the attack. One may well ask why were they brought to India in the first place? That India blamed ISI was no surprise, the only things they have not blamed ISI in the last decade is for the rat plague in New Delhi in 1994 and for Rabri Devi being elected as CM of Bihar. India has a history of being quick on the gun to blame Pakistan for its own “dirty tricks”, “Ganga” being blown up in Lahore by Indian RAW in 1971 is once concrete example. A few weeks ago an Indian Airlines aircraft remained “hijacked” for 4 hours before it was discovered that the flight had no hijackers, they had probably missed the flight but no one told the cockpit or the cabin crew. The cockpit crew thought the “hijackers” were in the cabin, the cabin crew thought likewise they were in the cockpit. In the meantime senior Indian officials, including a junior minister, told the media that the hijackers were Pakistani since they had heard their “Urdu” conversation over radio. Of such stuff are “facts” created to scandalize Pakistan.
Intelligence Happenings
Whenever military commanders fail to achieve their stated objectives, intelligence agencies are convenient scapegoats for their operational shortcomings. US President Carter’s “de-humanizing” of CIA in favour of high-tech did not cater for the present “war on terrorism” waged against a technologically backward country like Afghanistan. During Reagan’s term, CIA’s William Casey, one-time agent of the OSS, CIA’s predecessor agency, turned this policy around 180 degrees, running the war in Afghanistan with help from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). ISI coordinated logistics and operations with the Afghan Mujahideen, with officers and men on “Extra Regimental Employment” (ERE) duties, from Pakistan’s elite commando brigade, Special Services Group (SSG) taking part in actual fighting. SSG prides itself in wearing the winged dagger and having the universal motto of Special Forces everywhere, “Who Dares Wins”. Having done two SSG tenures, prime product General Pervez Musharraf is presently SSG’s Colonel-in-Chief.
Raised from 19 Baluch (old 17/10 Baluch) at Cherat, a hill station not far from Peshawar, dedicated CIA and US Special Forces personnel trained the SSG as part of US “Military Aid to Pakistan” Program (US MAP), among the instructors Chuck Lord, Robert Buckley, Robert Dunn, Maj Murray, Lt Hicks, Sommers, etc. Pakistani SSG officers travelled to Fort Bragg and/or Fort Benning for advanced training. Robert Dunn knew most SSG personnel by name, having spent almost his whole life in this area. Casey chose him to be CIA’s Operations Chief for the Afghan War.
Mixed Signals
The President of Pakistan, General Parvez Musharraf, met US President Bush in New York last Sunday evening. Earlier, he had addressed the UN General Assembly. Given that after sending democracy into temporary limbo he became an international pariah a scant two years (and a month ago), for the Pakistani President the visit has been a triumph of sorts, for the personal risks he has taken in the last 60 days it brought only mixed rewards. In meetings en route in Teheran, Istanbul, Paris and London, Parvez Musharraf scored heavily in getting effusive support for Pakistan as a frontline state in the “war on terrorism”. But it was the last stop that counted. Under dire pressure from the frenzy building in the streets, the Pakistani intelligentsia had high hopes that the US would take concrete and tangible measures to reverse the Pakistani public perception that the US is friendly with Pakistan only when it has use for it, and then leaves Pakistan to fend for itself in paying the economic and political price for the privilege of that rather limited (by need) friendship.
As a symbol of tangible support, Pakistan needed debt relief that would be more like debt forgiveness, something that would more than offset the political and economic fallout being acutely felt in Pakistan because of the US attack on Afghanistan. Pakistan suffered economically (and continues to suffer) because we were then left in the lurch after the Afghan War in the 80s, sad experience shows that the present aid package announced for Pakistan is meagre compared to the economic hardships that the present Afghan War is now forcing on Pakistan. US$ 1 billion is hardly peanuts, but in the context of what we really need it may as well as be chicken feed. One must be grateful for small blessings however, for even the US$ 1 billion aid package that we did get will ameliorate to a small extent the burden of the war which is being increasingly felt in the streets and homes of Pakistan. In material terms it may be in lost man hours and in export manufacturing orders, in emotional terms the cost cannot even begin to be counted.
Abandoning the Bride at the Altar
Already faced with enough troubles economically and politically, Pakistan now has a full-scale war on its western borders that we did not want and a religious call to arms within our frontiers that we certainly did not need. Compounding our problems, frustrated at seeing years of meticulous planning to isolate and Balkan-ize Pakistan literally go up in smoke on Sept 11, India is like a frustrated bride abandoned at the altar by the bridegroom to return to his original mate. India seems hell-bent on provoking a conflict on our eastern front which both India and Pakistan may well live to regret, if it escalates into a nuclear exchange both may well not live to express those regrets. Lobbying the US for the last decade to get the freedom fighters in Kashmir declared “terrorist”, and Pakistan a “terrorist-State” for good measure, it must be galling for the Indians to have their well-laid plans come to naught. Though he seemed to retract a little when in New Delhi, US Secretary of State Colin Powell may have inadvertently added insult to injury by calling “Kashmir the central issue between India and Pakistan”, “core issue” are code words normally used by Pakistan. Pakistan has returned to doing what it does best, being the front line State for the US in a war against somebody or the other. Indian intelligentsia and commentators have had real fun over the past year gloating over how Pakistan was on the ropes geo-politically, and economically was about to go under. Well, to paraphrase Mark Twain, “rumours of Pakistan’s demise seems to have been greatly exaggerated”, unquote.
War Without End Begins
The wonders of modern warfare will never cease! Three cities were targeted in US air attacks against Afghanistan Sunday night, most of the damage took place in Pakistan. Where the bombs destroyed is still generally unknown but Quetta in Pakistan was worst hit by violence, the mob made up of quite a few Afghan refugees as well as religious party activists. Two cinema halls (showing US movies), several banks, a police station and assorted vehicles, etc were torched by demonstrators protesting the US attack and Pakistan’s tacit support of it. Other cities saw roads blocked, buildings attacked and vehicles damaged, stoning and burning of tires and effigies, by small bands of youthful protestors, mostly in their teens. Protests were expected and were fairly widespread throughout the country, were negligible relative to South Asia’s normal standards. Overall (1) they rioted in small groups and (2) religious activists were not joined in by the other parties. The administration did well in allowing them to let off steam in a controlled fashion. An exchange of fire between our Frontier Corps (FC) troops and Taliban guards took place when some enthusiastic refugees tried to break into banks in a border town. What gives reason for concern was an armed 1000 plus mob (mainly Afghans supported by Maulana Fazlur Rahman’s JUI) attack on vehicles, some commercial, on the road leading to Chaman. Given the purity of their noble purpose, what is driving these religious zealots to such crass commercial motives as looting banks and commercial vehicles? The TV clip of the Afghan protestor in Quetta shouting on prime-time CNN, “we will first destroy Pakistan, and then America”, should be re-run again on Pakistan TV to show our public how grateful the Afghans are for the help and support by Pakistan over the years.
With very little to write about, journalists from all over the world became unduly excited by the sporadic brickbats being thrown at the government. Rumours of a military coup swept through Pakistan on Wednesday, sparked by a routine fire in a storeroom in GHQ, Rawalpindi and the round of posting/promotions of Lt Gens necessitated because of the vacancies created by Usmani and Mahmood’s suppression and retirement, and Musharraf’s giving up of the Chairman JCSC post. Well, the Pakistan Army is fairly monolithic and stands together, very firm and united behind their Chief. Some facts are blatantly misrepresented, the news item that a major English newspaper carried about Lt Gen Mahmood was outrageous. I have never liked Mahmood personally but he is a fine, upright professional. “Aabpara” happens to be Islamabad’s Hyde Park, a small crowd there is hardly of consequence, as at Regal Chowks in Lahore and Karachi, etc. The protests may still be miniscule but the anger is very much there, too widespread to simply ignore. Evidence can always be manufactured, and in power games between nations usually is, but Bin Laden vowing to make “more” suicide bombings against the US helped the western case by giving due credibility to their cause. That “smoking gun” will turn off a great many Osama sympathisers. As the bitter truth sinks in that their “hero” has tacitly (if not directly) acknowledged the killing of innocent civilians drawn from almost 80 countries, there will be reaction among the faithful. Every religious party in Pakistan has condemned the Sept 11 atrocity, incidentally so has the OIC Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Qatar, is Osama in step with them? Osama bin Laden was once a “freedom fighter”, he is now a terrorist, pure and simple, caring two hoots whom he targets as long as it fulfils his convoluted logic, he is simply using Islam to camouflage his perverted ideology. If our Ulema have the courage (and the character) they should face the truth, Osama is turning our religion into a violent travesty of what it really is, a peaceful one which forbids violence and which abhors killing. If our intelligentsia does not act now, different sects and factions within Islam could be further polarized, already a divide is taking place between haves and have-nots, this could lead to a full scale conflagration. It will certainly create more terrorists, some having access to weapons of mass destruction.
Which Plan, Martial or Marshal?
To protect itself from both internal dissent and a foreign war, the then French Government imposed “Terror” as the order of the day on Sep 5, 1793. Targeting opponents within its own midst, almost 17,000 being executed in less than a year till July 27, 1794, courts across the country were given a rather stark choice, “Execution or Acquittal!”. Encyclopedia Britannica describes “terrorism” as the “systematic use of terror as a means of forcing some political objective. A government may use it to signal efforts for stifling dissent, insurrectionists or guerillas may use terror as part of an overall effort to effect desired political change”. Commercial passenger aircraft were employed as flying bombs to destroy the twin towers of the World Trade Centre (WTC), the terrorists denying benefit of a trial to the many innocent passengers on the flights or the many thousands of almost 80 nationalities making their living in the prime commercial square mile of the world. A sentence of death was carried out by a “kangaroo court” knowing well that those they were executing so brutally had nothing whatsoever to do with the crimes that the terrorists were fighting against. Supposedly for the glory of Islam, the terrorists struck Islam perhaps its most grievous blow in the many centuries of its existence. With such “good” Muslims in our midst, does Islam need enemies?
Leading From the Front
Most Pakistanis have been aware since Agra that Pervez Musharraf’s boots were meant for walking on the world stage. The man who leads the country and the moment have come together seamlessly in a crisis, comfortable with his destiny and having the inherent ability to seize opportunity whenever and in whichever form it comes. Given Hobson’s Choice, damned if he will, damned if he won’t, the Pakistani leader went with his gut instinct, proving the description of leader who appears once in a blue moon, to quote Lord Wavell’s, “ having the unerring tenth instinct, like a kingfisher flashing across the surface of a pond”. Pervez Musharraf, General of the Army, President by default, but on merit Chief of Army Staff (COAS) and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (JCSC), did not vacillate, did not drag his feet as he followed Richard Nixon’s advice in not “debating a point to death”. With the country facing its gravest crisis since 1971, Musharraf took the hard but unpopular road in doing what is morally right. The recent terrorist attack in the US cannot be justified by any civilized society. Anybody who does so qualifies for being stark, raving mad.
The sound of a bullet is a great equalizer, it separates the men from the boys. The crisis of the magnitude that Pakistan is facing is the acid test of the character of our leadership. Faced with the rank injustices of the Radcliffe Award in 1947, the lawyer within our Quaid urged a legal battle, Choosing the race against time (now or never!) he went against the thrust of his personality and training to accept a “truncated, moth-eaten Pakistan” rather than no Pakistan at all. Musharraf put at stake his person, his reputation and credibility rather than put the nation to unlimited risk. The media propaganda has been so intense, any indecision or delay would have had long term adverse consequences for our very existence as a nation, (very quickly) Musharraf decided that notwithstanding the emotional display in the streets, overwhelming logic demanded that Pakistan came first. Going against terrorism is contrary to vocal public perception, not only in the streets but in some of the drawing rooms of the elite and educated (who should know better), Musharraf has taken a calculated risk with raw courage. An uncompromising fighter against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan, wealthy Osama bin Laden may have captivated the public imagination but what manner of man is ready to bring misery to millions so that he himself can survive? Even now hundreds of thousands of apprehensive Afghans, mainly women and children, are walking in many columns towards safety in Pakistan.