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Silent Rage
The government of Nawaz Sharif was sacked on the evening of Sunday April 18, 1993. On the following day, as a reaction to the controversial Presidential action, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) witnessed the largest fall in its share index in one day. Though it did not equal the October 1929 Black Tuesday crash on Wall Street, the fact of the precipitous “Black Monday” dive shook domestic and foreign investor confidence in the state of the economy.
The policies of the previous government were seen to be liberal and supportive of a conducive economic environment. By enacting far-reaching reforms to unshackle the economy from bureaucratic embrace, Nawaz Sharif had inspired sustained economic investment, particularly at the lower end of the economic spectrum. Indeed, this had blown the share market much out of proportion to its real value, corrections in a free market atmosphere had brought share prices to much more realistic levels before Monday’s headlong fall. The fall in share prices may be a reflection of investor confidence being shaken but given a GNP of US $ 50 billion approximately, a capitalisation of US $ 7 billion is relatively small. The unreal high point of 1700 points plus being reached in January 1992, the market index had come down to the 1200 threshold, a psychological benchmark that the former Finance Minister had set as an indicator of impending trouble. If the crisis continues share index may still fall through the 1000 point floor and as such while the Caretaker Government may be determined to change the form of the liberalising reforms enacted by the previous Regime, it has no elbowroom to change the substance as that would reflect adversely on the consistency of our own policies. As it is about Rs 7 billion in share prices has been wiped out and such a financial catastrophe may be difficult for generally new market players to absorb.
The Empire Strikes Back
The political struggle between the President and the PM that initially commenced with having more to do with egos has subsequently developed into a vested interest in retaining power rather than the upholding of any deep-rooted principles. A mass of disinformation has been let loose by both the sides that has kept the masses agog and the intelligentsia on tenterhooks, the business community registering its nervousness at the prevailing uncertainty through a steep decline of the stock market. In a perverse sense the internecine conflict has been a net gain for Pakistan for it has exposed our Parliamentary system for the farce that it actually is, a weak and spineless mechanism prone to Presidential remote control. In the past five years two elected Prime Ministers had become victims of Presidential angst, a third PM has now bitten the dust. We might as well declare the Presidency as a monarchy and be done with such a sham for a democracy.
Despite their own reservations about both the primary personalities involved, sane elements (including this scribe) had been counselling rapprochement between the President and the former PM in the greater national interest till they were blue in the face but to no avail, egos having enlarged to the extent of taking preponderance over anything else. Given the fact that the world political situation has undergone major surgery and we are in the midst of a sustained economic transition, the present political tussle has added to the country’s roller-coaster existence. Despite attempts at appeasement by the PM and his colleagues, the President has been as unforgiving as ever, driving Nawaz Sharif into such a corner that in a most uncharacteristic and surprising move he declared independence of the Head of Government from the Head of State, not a bad thing in itself in a Parliamentary system. The President’s mood had blackened over the PM’s alleged “indiscretions” in deliberately delaying to nominate him immediately as the PML candidate for the next Presidential election as soon as he had the mandate from the PML and for suggesting a repeal and/or amendment of the 8th Amendment. Having learnt nothing from Munich and appeasement thereof, the former PM had backtracked smartly on both the issues but the trust factor had already evaporated and did not satisfy those around Ghulam Ishaq Khan baying for Nawaz Sharif’s blood, particularly those who felt left out of the political and administrative mainstream, a habit that fails to die among old bureaucrats. Attempting to hound the PM out of office by a combination of bluff and bluster, the President’s men made the cardinal mistake of crossing a fail-safe line of courage and self-respect that is an in-built quality in all human beings, the potential to fight back in extreme adversity. The President may now have the PM’s head on a platter by sacking him and dissolving the National Assembly but he should re-read Homer’s Iliad, the admonition of the mother of Achilles to Achilles was not to kill Hector as he would not survive Hector’s death by long. It is common knowledge that the President has an extremely pronounced Achilles Heel in the form of the Presidential sons-in-laws. The citizens of this country may be forgiven for feeling that the country is being held hostage on their behalf.
Open Skies
While an “Open Skies” policy is a natural extension of the government’s liberalisation programme, deregulation of the aviation industry has been one of the most significant of the Nawaz Government’s initiatives. This two-pronged foray creates a new dynamics (“let a hundred flowers bloom”) in the body economic of Pakistan, serving to propel a wider percentage of our masses pell mell into the twentieth century’s technological marvels and its benefits thereof, albeit in its very last decade. Just before Eid, a private airline announced inaugural operations on one of the most travelled aerial sectors in Pakistan, Karachi-Islamabad-Karachi. Hajvairy Airlines thus become the first to break PIA’s monopoly of the domestic aerial routes, one hopes that more private airlines will follow to open up shuttle services on the pattern available in most western countries between the key major cities. Expectations that the advent of more aviation companies would mean the death knell for PIA are patently incorrect, this should act as a tremendous boost for the national airline. Bereft of a marker for evaluation, PIA has suffered in the lack of comparison thereof. PIA’s competitive spirit would be aroused to cater for survival in the new dynamics.
The government must ensure that an “Open Skies” policy should have reciprocity as a fundamental principle. Take the example of Kenya, which sells us tea worth more than US150 million annually and purchases virtually nothing in return. Despite the fact that Kenya Airlines comes to Karachi, they have not given PIA the requested landing rights (only) on the way to Johannesburg. This is taking undue advantage of the “Open Skies” policy to the detriment of PIA (and the nation). The government must impose mandatory sanctions against those who do not reciprocate our liberal generosity. The other factor is that socio-economic factors rather than commercial factors govern present operation on many of PIA’s domestic routes, that handicap must be adjusted against the balance when assessing PIA’s performance vis-a-vis private airlines who will only be governed by commercial parameters.
The Last Hurrah
The word “principle” is usually missing from the epithet-laden vocabulary of Pakistani politics, not so in the case of the lately lamented former Prime Minister of Pakistan and President of Pakistan Muslim League, Mohammad Khan Junejo. Brought in essentially as a puppet on a string by the late Gen Zia in his version of democracy, the late Junejo displayed his mettle by quietly refusing to let the vestiges of Martial Law survive with democracy. He made up for a singular lack of charisma by the sheer strength of his character, setting accountability in motion in a society afflicted with the Unaccountable by sacking some powerful Cabinet colleagues against whom there was prima-facie evidence of corruption. A man of old world courtesy and grace, his opponents found it impossible to criticise him on weaknesses normally attributable to politicians. The Geneva Accord on Afghanistan in the face of late President Zia’s inflexibility on key issues was Junejo’s most memorable foreign policy achievement, on the domestic front he left a lasting impression about the only genuine initiative in Pakistani history about austerity by his symbolic Suzuki-isation programme. Late Gen Zia ostensibly sacked him as PM because of Junejo’s determination to take action for those criminally culpable for the Ojhri Camp blast, in reality the senior members of the bureaucracy who could not stomach any more erosion of their service “perks” worked toward (and benefited most from) his ouster. Lying sick with terminal Leukemia in far away John Hopkins Hospital in USA, he had unknowingly become a bone of contention within the PML, a rallying point for the anti-Nawaz Sharif dissenters. His demise is thus extremely untimely as he could have stemmed the self-destruction mode the PML is presently programmed into.
Inaugurating the Fish Harbour at Gwadar, the Prime Minister made the first public move at checking the rot in his government (and PML internal politics from rapidly resembling a fish market) by denying any rift between him and the President. Where there is smoke there is bound to be a fire and while his categorical denial was quite unbelievable given the regular one-way traffic to the President by a mix of political dissenters at odds between themselves but united in their hate-Nawaz chorus, the symbolic waving of the white flag was quite welcome and showed political maturity. Whatever may be the President’s misgivings, the ball is now firmly in his court to reciprocate.
Big Leaders, Small People
As the year 1993 dawned in Pakistan, the destiny of the country was in the hands of three powerful men, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz Sharif and the COAS, General Asif Nawaz Janjua, otherwise known as the “TROIKA”. Barely six months or so later, such is fate that all three have disappeared from the controls of the nation, at least one temporarily.
The first to go was Gen Asif Nawaz, his sudden heart attack and demise cut short an illustrious career, precipitating the crisis that saw the remaining two members of the “Troika” fight among themselves and ultimately relinquish their seats of power. To the former President’s chagrin this was on the prompting of the man hand-picked by him as the replacement for the late COAS. Before that Rubicon was crossed, the country has been reduced into political and economic shambles. For whatever it is worth, Ms Benazir Bhutto, who started the year in the political wilderness, seems to be the only beneficiary of having driven the country into this crisis. One believes that in winning a battle, she may be celebrating a bit too soon and may have lost the war. For the record, she has another shot at becoming the Prime Minister of the country. If she loses again, we can have another Long March.
Benefit of Doubt
Aziz Munshi temporarily succeeded in delaying the judicial process in the Supreme Court by his dedicated filibustering, if it had not been so annoying it would actually have been amusing. As it is he did not succeed in impeding the march of impatient history and since nothing fails more than failure, he has been temporarily consigned into oblivion from which no doubt he will soon rise Phoenix-like. It is most demeaning to see a man of substance squirm under the knowledge that his Brief his hollow, the pressure was such that he was reduced to dithering on reasons of no consequence to delay the inevitable. Aziz Munshi found himself symbolically in the dock in place of his Client and fighting a losing battle, he came off the worse for it. Defending the indefensible one has to accept the approbation that goes with it, in the face of adversity though, one must commend Mr Munshi in not resorting to the ultimate fall-back position, histrionics. That by far was his most saving grace, accepting with equanimity the historic Supreme Court verdict. The detailed judgement in the case is now more than overdue.
Flush with victory in the Supreme Court, in the face of existing realities which was his to lose if he faltered, eloquent Barrister Khalid Anwar seems to have gained an infallible reputation. With the utmost respect for the Honourable Judges of the Lahore High Court (LHC) one has to observe that in the matter of Elahi Vs Wattoo, it has led them to re-defining the meaning of limbo and opened up a legal Pandora’s box. The Province of Punjab finds itself in a state of suspended animation because of the Interim Order given by the LHC on Wednesday last as well the plea of Counsel Abdul Hafeez Pirzada of vertical bias and the application for shifting thereof. Born Again – Chief Minister Wattoo’s state is that of betwixt and between, as an incumbent not illegal but being insecure hardly stable. His new ally in the Governor’s House, PPP Stalwart and Presidential confidante, Altaf Hussain (not to be confused by the gentleman in London), finds his seat of power itself under threat. According to the Interim Order issued by the LHC, the Constitutional position in Punjab reverts to what it was before the Honourable Governor dissolved the Provincial Assembly (PA), with the stipulation of status quo, that the advice of the CM to dissolve is not to take effect nor can he give any such advice till further notice, to balance off it has been mandated that a vote of no-confidence moved by the Petitioners cannot be further processed. In effect it does not prevent MPAs other than Pervaiz Elahi, the Petitioner, from requisitioning the PA and proposing a vote of no-confidence in the CM, except that if its result could not be applied till a final decision of the LHC. According to our much differently interpreted Constitution, the Assembly is supposed to dissolve automatically at the expiry of 48 hours after the advice is tendered, this raised another anomaly promptly exploited by the Speaker. The pressure cockpit of political currents seemed to have rushed the Honourable Judges into a rather ambiguous position. One surmises respectfully that in hindsight the Honourable Judges would come to the conclusion that judicious discretion required a more thorough negotiation through this legal minefield to avert this potentially Catch-22 situation. One does not live for an instant under the impression that the motivation of the LHC was anything but sincere, however since one cannot please everybody with a Judgement, an Interim Order is twice complicated. It has opened up a window of opportunity for those who are prone to fomenting anarchy, this time by casting undue aspersion on the judiciary.
180 Days in Economic History
Almost two decades ago, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) set in motion a chain of events leading to economic apocalypse. In defence of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto it must be said that while riding the crest of public opinion (which was aroused against free enterprise held captive of a handful of robber barons), he genuinely believed that a socialistic system would bring about amelioration in the miseries of the masses. In this he was not alone in the world, this was the fashion of the times in most Third World countries. Our tragedy was that in reacting against the greed of the few we ended up in the proliferation of corruption, at a particular economic crossroads we took the wrong turn. The collapse of the Socialist Empire has seen, a reaction against the system set in through the Third World, everybody is now abandoning Carl Marx for Adam Smith.