Economic Scenario
Leaders anywhere in the world can never resist the temptations of resorting to populist slogans, particularly when faced with assessment from the electorate. Normal perceptions of mass psychology dictate that voter preference is usually accorded to those who promise the most, all other factors, charisma included, being favourable. Emphasis is laid on a rescue act from the “gloom and doom” scenario, with the aspirant office-seekers presenting themselves as glorified versions of Sir Launcelot and Lord Fauntleroy rolled into one, the bottom line being the ability to deliver on all promises made, which are liberally strewn about, pledging everything but the sun and the moon, bread in plentiful abundance, universal housing, free education and medical care, water, gas, electricity, public transportations, etc in whichever order you may prefer it. Very seldom do political parties (or for that matter, military regimes) come up with comprehensive plans to tackle the issues, a total plan to ameliorate the miseries of the common man. Pakistan today is no exception to the given rule, rhetoric being in abundance, the matter of substance in short supply, a scarcity microscoping into oblivion by the lack of credible economic planners who are electable in any of the major political groups. We have seen the tinkering of the economy by those who are least electable in the present regime, a situation of genius gone amok. As much as there is a surfeit of agriculturists in the form of major landowners among professional politicians, the absence of economists and businessmen in the electoral field is always acutely felt and the present election process is no exception.
In Pakistan’s history, there has been no major election where personalities apart, there has been such a convergence of economic views as in the present one, an absolute consensus on ideology which is excellent news for the future of the country. Almost all the political parties have similar programmes and agreeing almost on all the points of each other’s manifestos, verifyingly populist by reasons of electioneering, but without exception mature and well-thought out in presentation. One hopes that the normal penchant to depend upon half-baked media-genic schemes will cease whoever comes to power and instead of the reliance on good luck to fulfill the promises made, reliance will be placed on well-reasoned economic master plans, long on policy and short on control. In any case, economic good luck in Pakistan is mostly dependant upon the vagaries of the weather, which every once in a few years goes sour on us, alternating drought with floods, giving our leaders, political or military, plenty of opportunity to backtrack on all pledges made in the heat of the political moment, blaming everything on the sun and/or the clouds.
With the approach of Elections 1988, the people of Pakistan have reason to lay great store in heightened expectations. A political government, subject to check by a hard-working opposition within and outside Parliament is a dire necessity for economic emancipation. The gradual awareness of the electorate about economic mores makes it necessary for our leaders to remain aware of the practical requirements of the masses and it is only in the emphasis on solutions that we can find lasting prosperity.
The prime requisite is a rapid expansion of the employment base and in this we must avoid going the normal route and go literally and figuratively into the unknown. For example we have concentrated on development on the LEFT BANK of the Indus, maybe it is time to site new cities and developments in the vast open spaces of Balochistan, exploiting the enormous potential of an elongated and undeveloped coastline. Great examples exist before us of substantially different economies, in the development of the west in the USA in the nineteenth century and of Siberia in the USSR much more recently, both by means of the railroad. Brazil is trying a similar experiment though Jari is not a good example. Despite extreme weather in Siberia, great emphasis has been laid by the Soviet planners in the last decade to open up the East for economic reasons, thereby throwing open the vast Russian plains to economic exploitation. Mr Mushahid Husain has recently written about his “Glasnost” trip to Vladivostok, previously a city more “Forbidding” than Peking ever was, the surprise being that it was so very modern. We must open up the Balochistan heartland and the coastline. With the building of a coastal railroad, feeder canals, urban development will not be far behind. We could establish major ports facilities in Pasni and Gwadar, giving them FREE PORT status. By adequate combination of increased power supply and desalinization of water, we could establish INDUSTRIAL PARKS which will spawn their own urban development, a snowball effect contributing to the wide spectrum of the economy. By directing our development effort on socio-economic reasons rather than purely on economic feasibility at this time, the pressure on our inner cities will cease with the growth of employment opportunities away from the present beaten track. What to talk about tax incentives, more than 50% of the loans (soft in any case) for establishing industry in the new region should be given as outright grants to budding entrepreneurs.
Innovation must also be brought into education and medicine. One of the ways to do it is to ensure that all high school graduates perform National Service, duly delayed in respect of aspirant doctors and engineers (and other specialists) until after they get their respective degrees. In this manner we would have the benefit of young professionals available in rural areas, the service experience of which must be a strict qualification for any future government jobs. Health care centres must be established on a private service basis i.e. government may contract out areas for coverage, eschewing the present bureaucracy in medicine. Similar practice can be followed in education, the premise being that private enterprise should replace government in all areas except policy.
The primary responsibility for a newly elected government will be to provide infrastructure facilities such as buildings, roads, electricity, water, telecommunications, gas and public transportation in the proposed Industrial Parks. Once these are provided any aspirant entrepreneur just has to bring his machinery into the facilities and plug into the outlet. The entrepreneur should not have to seek permission from anyone about the type of industry, leaving it to his own commercial instincts to make the choice. He should just lease or buy the space as required. Similarly, urban townships to support the industrial facilities must be simultaneously constructed and a comprehensive scheme for private lease/ownership may be worked out on a more than favourable basis to encourage permanent migration to these new developments, lessening pressure on the cities, mainly Karachi.
The people of the country do not need rhetoric anymore, they need to translate words into a semblance of such deeds which will deal with existing realities. Politicians usually have to compromise their pre-election dynamism into the routine of government post-election, getting themselves hamstrung by the solution of mundane daily problems, consigning visions into dustbins, the residuals of once-perceived opportunity. The need now is to note that for millions of our people opportunities are getting scarcer by the day. A duly elected National Assembly with a strong opposition will ensure accountability which has been singularly lacking over the past decade. Arable land is decreasing proportionate to the increase of population, putting strains on the optimum agricultural unit for economic survival. The resultant trans-migration into the cities are making them overly-saturated, causing strain on the existing services while too many people are vying for ever- decreasing employment opportunities. With inflation on the one hand and deflation in the number of pay checks on the other, it is only because of an artificial boom created by the smuggling (of arms and drugs) and the repatriated money of our expatriate workers that we are artificially economically afloat, on the groundswell of a black economy. Our populace is filled with heightened expectations and aspirations with the onset of the coming elections. All the ingredients for an economic bust, sliding into anarchy are present, therefore becomes incumbent to encourage whoever becomes the elected government, to deal with the economy on a priority basis.
Bettering the lot of the common man is the prime election premise; post-election the elected representatives must not forget it.
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